Hoping AMD Can Survive

[Jerry Jones]

http://www.eetimes.com/news/latest/showArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=L13PYL3PI344QQSNDLSCKHA?articleID=199200164

Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Hulk]

I sure hope so Jerry but to be honest it doesn't look good.

If not for Intel's mis-step with Netburst (aka P4) which allowed AMD to trounce them until Core 2 Duo arrived I don't even know if AMD would be around today.

But losing market share and not having the fastest processor for a while angered the hive and they came back with a vengence. And that vengence was Core 2 Duo.

Core 2 Duo (and quad) are great chips as we all know. Faster per clock cycle than X2, cooler, and lots of headroom in for architecture for overclocking.

Add to the fact that AMD is a full process generation behind Intel and you have a recipe for trouble for AMD. AMD is just starting to really transition to the 65nm process that Intel has been selling since July. And early tests on C2D's successor "Penryn" look very promising. It won't be a revolutionary step like Conroe but an evolutionary one. Some new features, a die shrink to 45nm, and native quad core. Looks like we'll see a 5 to 10% improvement per clock cycle in overall performance over Conroe plus higher clockspeeds. Intel has already demonstrated duals and quads running at 3.33GHz. 45nm yields must already be good. Also since there are quite a few new SSE4 instructions it looks like video editing apps may get huge performance increases. This is what early benches are showing anyway. Intel is demonstrating Penryn like they did Conroe last year. We were skeptical of Conroe benches until we got the product in July and it was all they claimed it to be. I have no reason to think Intel Penryn benches won't hold up as well.

As I said AMD angered the hive and they are coming out ina ferocious frenzy.

My prediction? If Barcelona can't beat Penryn on and IPC (instruction per clock cycle) basis then AMD will be in deep trouble. And honestly just can't see AMD getting good enough yields to beat Intel in clockspeed. And that would be necessary if they can't beat them in IPC. AMD has always had trouble ramping up a new process technology. I think Barcelona will disappoint. I think it will maybe be equal to Penryn IPC-wise and won't be within 500MHz of Intel's fastest running chip. These are just my opinions based on what I know of Barcelona, Penryn, and the fact that AMD is being very tight lipped about Barcelona. I think that's because they have nothing to brag about. Again, just my analysis.

AMD may be able to survive in the value segment and Intel won't crush them there because they need *a little* competition to keep the anti-trust guys away (think MS). And the X2 processor is still a good value for a lot of people as I'm sure Barcelona will be. I just don't think lightning will strike twice and they will be able to retake the lead.

Just my opinion and I really, really hope I'm wrong and Barcelona is 10% faster than Penryn IPC-wise and they release at clockspeeds up to 3.5GHz from the start! I'll be pulling for them.