WTF :2019-nCoV NovaCoronaVirus Thread

[Dr Mordrid]

Wisconsin's State Supreme Court has ruled their governor's shelter in place orders unconstitutional.

Michigan governor's shelter in place orders are being challenged in court as well.

[Dr Mordrid]

Conference call today;

the Moderna* mRNA-1273 vaccine is generating recovery level antibodies in 100% of participants and may go into wide Phase 3 trials in July, with doses between 25ug and 100ug.

They applied for Phase 2 about 2 weeks ago.

* Boston, MA

[ZokesPro]

Conference call today;

the Moderna* mRNA-1273 vaccine is generating recovery level antibodies in 100% of participants and may go into wide Phase 3 trials in July, with doses between 25ug and 100ug.

They applied for Phase 2 about 2 weeks ago.

* Boston, MA

Interesting!

And then what? What if phase 3 bring similar results?

[Dr Mordrid]

Interesting!

And then what? What if phase 3 bring similar results?

FDA Phase 3 usually involves 3,000± people with the condition a drug is to treat. This phase can take a few years.

<speculation alert>

Giving it to an uninfected person then exposing them presents ethical issues. This may be tested as a treatment for early positive patients

Most drugs could spend 2-3 years at Phase 3, but at the call they reported it's well tolerated. IMO, with good results they could do a Fast-Track humanitarian release as early as January.

[Umfriend]

Giving it to an uninfected person then exposing them presents ethical issues. This may be tested as a treatment for early positive patients

Most drugs could spend 2-3 years at Phase 3, but at the call they reported it's well tolerated. IMO, with good results they could do a Fast-Track humanitarian release as early as January.

I can see that. But with the prevalence of Covid, the mild progression expected for <50yo and assuming good disclosure I could see people volunteering. Even if about 50% of the volunteers will actually get Covid-19.

Also, I don;t understand how a vaccine can be tested on early positives. Isn't the body already working to find out how to create antibodies? It sounds more like a test that would be appropriate for a cure, not a vaccine. Just wondering and knowing little about this.

[Dr Mordrid]

I can see that. But with the prevalence of Covid, the mild progression expected for <50yo and assuming good disclosure I could see people volunteering. Even if about 50% of the volunteers will actually get Covid-19.

Also, I don;t understand how a vaccine can be tested on early positives. Isn't the body already working to find out how to create antibodies? It sounds more like a test that would be appropriate for a cure, not a vaccine. Just wondering and knowing little about this.

mRNA vaccines are new, and work different. Think in terms of a Barrett sniper rifle rather than a shotgun.

Most vaccines work by using a part of the bacteria or virus to stimulate the immune system into producing antibodies, a complex process. Some of these will work, some not so much. The hope is enough of the working antibodies will be made to fight off the disease.

In mRNA vaccines you program messenger RNA, think if it as a boot tape, for making only the molecule you want. Once cells are booted up to run the mRNA it forces the cell's machinery to mass produce that specific molecule. The molecule of choice is the spike the virus uses to attach to our cells. The immune system sees this masive collection of spike proteins and marshalls troops for battle, creating antibodies and (hopefully) immunity..

Because of this mass production some mRNA vaccines can be used as either a vaccine or as a treatment.

mRNA vaccines have been created for Zika, rabies, and have the potential to create a family of cancer vaccines. Could be a Really*Big*Deal.

[Umfriend]

Thanks for that. What I don't understand is this: If you are infected with the Covid-19 virus, you already have virii with the spike that your immune system must learn to attach to / create antibodies for. So how then does a treatment that *simply* introduces that same spike to your body help?

[UtwigMU]

The problem with Covid as I read is that if it doesn't enter lungs the disease passes without symptoms or with mild. In slovenia 3% of national sample of 1300 people had had Covid while they had some or no symptoms.

If it enters lung the immune system reacts and attacks virii as well as lung tissue where they are produced. This leads to low oxygen saturation lung damage and can lead to pneumonia. This is why most have no to mild symptoms while some (=<1%) need to be hospitalized.

[ZokesPro]

You know the govt message has gotten through when you hear your nine year playing with star wars lego says "I'm going to attack you at 2m distance!", lol.

[Dr Mordrid]

Thanks for that. What I don't understand is this: If you are infected with the Covid-19 virus, you already have virii with the spike that your immune system must learn to attach to / create antibodies for. So how then does a treatment that *simply* introduces that same spike to your body help?

Most often there aren't enough CoVid-19 virii to overwhelm a healthy immune system, there's excess capacity. Here using the vaccine shortly after Infection can further tip the odds.

When the patient has a suppressed immune system from age or cosorbidities; diabetes, overweight, cardiovascular disease, etc. there's diminished capacity to mount the battle. Next, inflammation turns the immune system itself against its owner - it becomes an autoimmune condition. This is commonly known as "cytokine storm syndrome" and it's often lethal. Here giving the vaccine early, well before the storm, may help head it off.

Age and comorbidities are why we've been seeing 50%+ of the deaths occurring in nursing & veterans homes, senior apartments, assisted living centers, etc. Staffers at these centers are often asymptomatic carriers, up to 75% testing positive at Detroit senior centers. Also at high risk are seniors who live with extended families, who can also be carriers.

Then we have idiots like NY Governor Cuomo who sent recovering CoVid-19 patients back to the senior homes. Dumb.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-sent-recovering-coronavirus-patients-to-nursing-homes-it-was-a-fatal-error-11589470773

[Dr Mordrid]

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/05/feared-reactivation-of-covid-19-infections-disputed-by-new-data/

Feared “reactivation” of COVID-19 infections disputed by new data

"Re-positive" cases didn't spread disease or shed

People who recover from COVID-19 but test positive for the virus again days or weeks later are not shedding viral particles and are not infectious, according to data released Tuesday by the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The so-called “re-positive” cases have raised fears that an infection with the new coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, could “reactivate” in recovered patients or that recovering from the infection may fail to produce even short-lived immunity, allowing patients to immediately become re-infected if they are exposed.

The new data from Korea should ease those concerns.

>

[Dr Mordrid]

NY has published their nursing home deaths (and suspected) numbers. They're high, no doubt because of NY Gov. Cuomo (D) sending 4,500 infected elderly patients into nursing homes like so many Typhoid Marys.

Several other states have had a similar policy, but reversed them. Not so Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D), triggering calls for an investigation. Seemingly stuck on stupid.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/05/18/state-rep-lucido-seeks-probes-whitmers-nursing-home-pandemic-orders/5217735002/

Scathing Associated Press story on NY's policy,

https://apnews.com/5ebc0ad45b73a899efa81f098330204c

A short taste,

Whatever the full number, nursing home administrators, residents’ advocates and relatives say it has added up to a big and indefensible problem for facilities that even Gov. Andrew Cuomo - the main proponent of the policy - called “the optimum feeding ground for this virus.”

Total nursing home & adult care deaths by AP's count: 5,800 - more than in any other state.

NY State May 24 report

https://www.health.ny.gov/statistics/diseases/covid-19/fatalities_nursing_home_acf.pdf

[Paddy]

We've turned ourselves into the country of 'Westralia' [Western Australia]. Hard boarders across state lines and only just allowing regional travel.
That being said, we only had two active cases a few days ago and nine deaths in total. Number of active cases just increased to about twelve when we repatriated a flight and let a ship dock yesterday.

The whole state went on immediate lockdown so we're stuck in the situation that we are unable to let anyone in as the entire populous lacks exposure/immunity...

[dZeus]

Sounds like a new multi-year bet to me

Seems like a leaked study of the German interior ministry seems to agree that the risk posed by Covid-19 has been severely overstated. (here's a translated summary of key findings).

[Umfriend]

Seems like a leaked study of the German interior ministry seems to agree that the risk posed by Covid-19 has been severely overstated. (here's a translated summary of key findings).

Great! So, uhm, 10 years? And what is the bet specifically? And if you win, pick up the bottle of wine in Zaandam and you may bring with you the one you owe me