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  • Umfriend
    replied
    I may suck at timing and stock picking but I am patient and somewhat disciplined. I stated applying my "algorithm" to PHI (Philips) March 22 and it has been a bumpy ride. Today they reported a 24 Q1 1 bln LOSS and the stock rose by over 40% right now. Funny that. So I was able to clean out my option positions and some stock holdings and am now left with 200 PHI stock at a negative cost, excluding received dividends and option premia. I am out of actively algo-ing PHI.

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  • Umfriend
    replied
    Well done. I suck at market timing.

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  • Dr Mordrid
    replied
    Too many down signs for Tesla Q1 telegraphed so out for bonds, instincts proved correct. Red Sea shipping problems, controversies in Berlin turned into an ecoterror attack, etc. Back in for Q2. Yesterday was the earnings call for Q1.

    While financials were down they remained profitable. T announced they are accelerating their new cheaper vehicles (yes, plural) in existing factories on lines that are now more efficient. Some could hit the street later this year.

    Now pushing to 3 million vehicles many in the lower cost range. In their master plan they list a van (possibly also for use in the Loop tunnels, the Las Vegas Loop being expanded to 68 miles), a CRV size vehicle, robotaxi, and a bus.

    Tesla went up 11% after hours. We'll see what they do tomorrow

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  • Umfriend
    replied
    Yes, it is confusing, but not surprising, that they chose that ticker instead of TMTG (Trump Media & Technology Group). I think it is the most overvalued personal web page in the history of the interweb.

    1/13'000, noice!

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  • UtwigMU
    replied
    I had to look up what DJT is. The service was not available in EU last time I looked.

    On Friday I'm going to shareholders meeting of a local pharma in person. I own 1/13'000 of the company

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  • Umfriend
    replied
    I really wanted to buy DJT put options but my broker doesn't provide that service. But at 250% implied vol it is a no go anyway.

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  • Umfriend
    replied
    Not sure actually, I think I did OK but I need the accounting to be sure. Same stocks although ARC is inactive now because they cost a lot and CSM / Corbion is active now. Oh, and restarted FUR, laddering to the third lot of 100.

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  • UtwigMU
    replied
    Nice!

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  • Dr Mordrid
    replied
    Tesla was in a dip last New Years, so bought. Up 102% for 2023.

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  • UtwigMU
    replied
    How did you do in 2023?

    I didn't invest much, paid off loan and saved some cash as I expect that correction will come. In spring I was expecting a correction already around November so I took some profit by selling some NVDA and some AMD. I could have waited longer.
    Overall portfolio YoY up 50%

    I regret not picking up local insurance company after it got corrected (stable dividend stock) during floods and not picking up some BRK-B in October.
    Last edited by UtwigMU; 2 January 2024, 01:33.

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  • Dr Mordrid
    replied
    Picked up more Tesla shares, just in time for Ford to announce their vehicles will start using Tesla's North American Charging Standard (NACS).

    Initially, Ford EV owners will get an NACS -> CCS adapter so they can use Tesla Superchargers through the Ford app. Starting in 2025, new Ford EVs will be equipped with NACS sockets.



    Much of this is because Tesla is flooring the pedal as regards Supercharger rollout, but CCS is deploying at a much slower rate. Ratio is roughly 2:1. Tesla also has an advantage with a 97% up time, while CCS chargers have been suffering issues; up time is around 72.5%, and many have buggy software.

    Other automakers and charge point operators have been given access to the Tesla NACS, and some operators have already announced they will be providing service for NACS vehicles.

    It'll be interesting to see what GM, Stellantis, and US built imports do.
    Last edited by Dr Mordrid; 30 May 2023, 20:46.

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  • Umfriend
    replied
    Currently speculating on AMG, ARC, PHI and PLT (100-200 shares each, not big or anything). Q1 numbers out over next 2 weeks so option premia are nice right now.

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  • UtwigMU
    replied
    Listened to IBM conference call: Red Hat up 11%, revenue up 4% >50% recurring revenue, cash up but also debt up.
    SALR report came out also - good, will pay dividends next week and will acquire own shares on the market - gross yield on my first share is now 10%

    Mainframe also up, growth expected in digital transformations for which every company seems to be sucking EU funds, automation and AI.

    Since IBM ownership Red Hat revenue quadrupled.

    IBM up 2% in premarket, higher than my basis cost.
    Last edited by UtwigMU; 19 April 2023, 15:21.

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  • UtwigMU
    replied
    both IBM and MSFT holdings individually are more than AMD, NVDA, INTC combined.

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  • Umfriend
    replied
    So, no? I do not BTW, where's the fun in that?

    But seriously, IBM, MSFT are like 0.9ish. Intel, AMD, NVDA are way above 1.

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