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Basically; NASA released their COTS II RFP (request for proposals) for ISS resupply for the interim between when the shuttle fleet is decommissioned and whenever the Orion/Ares I is ready to fly and it does not include buying any more crew/cargo space on Soyuz spacecraft.
NASA COTS II RFP page....
This was predicted by Aviation Week in an April, 2008 article;
Aviation Week article....
SpaceX is the COTS I program that is far enough along with a spacecraft that can do both crew and cargo; the Dragon, which can be converted between manned and cargo versions almost overnight. Their response to the NASA RFP is virtually automatic, and they have a big head start.
If any US launchers (required) bid on COTS II they would likely have to work with other companies to get a cargo and crew capability, and this would have to happen fast as SpaceX is scheduled to launch their dual-capability Dragon Q1 2009.
The biggest competitor for SpaceX, of course, is ULA (a joint Lockheed Martin/Boeing spinoff). They have been working on a way to man-rate their Atlas V booster and use it to launch SpaceDev's Dream Chaser space plane. Dream Chaser too can be converted, but with lower capacities than Dragon. Seems they'd need 2 separate ships; one for crew and one for cargo.
ULA has yet to say one way or the other if they will submit a response to the NASA RFP. The rumor mill has had them launching both modules for and missions to the Bigelow stations, up to 150 launches total, so there is some question as to if they could handle the launch rate necessary to do both Bigelow's launches and NASA's.
NASA COTS II RFP page....
This was predicted by Aviation Week in an April, 2008 article;
Aviation Week article....
SpaceX is the COTS I program that is far enough along with a spacecraft that can do both crew and cargo; the Dragon, which can be converted between manned and cargo versions almost overnight. Their response to the NASA RFP is virtually automatic, and they have a big head start.
If any US launchers (required) bid on COTS II they would likely have to work with other companies to get a cargo and crew capability, and this would have to happen fast as SpaceX is scheduled to launch their dual-capability Dragon Q1 2009.
The biggest competitor for SpaceX, of course, is ULA (a joint Lockheed Martin/Boeing spinoff). They have been working on a way to man-rate their Atlas V booster and use it to launch SpaceDev's Dream Chaser space plane. Dream Chaser too can be converted, but with lower capacities than Dragon. Seems they'd need 2 separate ships; one for crew and one for cargo.
ULA has yet to say one way or the other if they will submit a response to the NASA RFP. The rumor mill has had them launching both modules for and missions to the Bigelow stations, up to 150 launches total, so there is some question as to if they could handle the launch rate necessary to do both Bigelow's launches and NASA's.