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Will Boeing outsource ISS crew launches to SpaceX?

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  • Will Boeing outsource ISS crew launches to SpaceX?

    This is a stunner. Background;

    Boeing makes the Delta IV launcher. All hydrogen fueled, which makes it efficient (high specific impulse) but it has high operational and production costs. The most expensive US launcher. NOT human rated.

    Lockheed Martin makes the Atlas V launcher. RP-1 fueled (highly refined kerosene) with a bit less efficiency but higher thrust at launch. Only now is a special ($$) human rated model hitting the market

    United Launch Alliance is a Boeing / LockMart joint venture to market the Delta IV and Atlas V. Boeing would have to buy human rated Atlas V's for crew launches at ULA's prices.

    In the NASA Commercial Crew program the Boeing CST-100 capsule and SNC Dream Chaser spaceplane are committed to use the human rated Atlas V, at least for the first couple of flights, because NASA paid millions for the mods. SpaceX's Dragon will fly on their new Falcon 9 v1.1, which is more powerful than all but the top of the line Delta IV's or Atlas V's and much cheaper.

    Now comes an Aviation Week article (link...) where Boeing reveals they are going to meet with SpaceX in a couple of weeks to discuss using the upgraded Falcon 9 v1.1 for CST-100 after its 2nd Atlas V launch.

    Why outsource to SpaceX when they have access to Atlas V? Those launch prices. The consensus is they're having trouble closing CST-100's business case with Atlas V, and human rating the Delta IV would cost even more and take too long and still meet the program deadline. This business case problem has been rumored for months, but this seems to be confirmation.

    The much cheaper Falcon 9 v1.1 could well close it, plus its engine out capability could save launches where otherwise the flight would have to use the launch abort system to extract the crew. Ex: blown engines or turbopumps.

    The other question is why would SpaceX help Boeing to compete with them for Commercial Crew? Perhaps this is a pure desperation move on Boeings part. Perhaps SpaceX could get some patent licenses, like for Boeing's new lightweight composite cryogenic tanks.

    This should be interesting.
    Last edited by Dr Mordrid; 2 July 2013, 21:46.
    Dr. Mordrid
    ----------------------------
    An elephant is a mouse built to government specifications.

    I carry a gun because I can't throw a rock 1,250 fps
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