What da .... !

[ND66]

... Ernesto is to the south of where the models expected right now the probablity is the storm will be to the west of the models which will probably put Texas and LA in the firing zone and considering this was the week Katrina hit last year it would be very bad luck if something similar occured this year. However its still FAR to early to tell about track and possible landfall but I'm very concerened about this storm now given just how favorable the gulf is, depending on timings of eyewall replacement cycles in the gulf cat-4/5 is certainly a possiblty.

I wouldn't worry too much if I drove there.
If something goes bad, jump in the car & get the hell out of there.
Flying, on the other hand, most likely not, but you may get stock with 2 small kids & 1 infant in the middle of this thing.
I have almost 2 more days to keep an eye on it. Worst come to worst, it’s only money I’ll be loosing & that’s replaceable.

Andy.

[Brian Ellis]

Do I detect a touch of paranoia? You are going inland; all forecasts indicate that it won't be anywhere near Orlando, which is far to the North of any projection; at the worst, the wind and rain will be short-lived and will not represent any danger. You are much more likely to be eaten by an alligator!

[ND66]

Do I detect a touch of paranoia?

I think so... .

Hmm... I know MURCers know everything. But MURCers also do free weather forecast? AMAZING.

Aren't Murcers the greatest people in the world?
I do appreciate it very much, thanks guys!

.

[ND66]

Change of forecast.....

[Jessterw]

Do I detect a touch of paranoia? You are going inland; all forecasts indicate that it won't be anywhere near Orlando, which is far to the North of any projection; at the worst, the wind and rain will be short-lived and will not represent any danger. You are much more likely to be eaten by an alligator!

Orlando rarely gets hit by these storms other than some rain and moderate winds. So yeah, it might not be all sunny, but I've seen Disney World stay open while other parts of the state are getting hammered by storms.

Then again, Tampa never got a direct hit the entire time I lived there and it almost took one (which is bad enough) a few times recently. Of course, it's all but impossible for this system to reangle itself in such a way that Orlando would be in danger.

[ND66]

Thanks for this explanation, it helps to understand the law of nature around that area.
A.

[ND66]

Well, at this point (Sunday morning) and the latest Hurricane projected path....
it's time to make the call & cancel the trip.

[Brian Ellis]

Well, at this point (Sunday morning) and the latest Hurricane projected path....
it's time to make the call & cancel the trip.

I wouldn't, yet!

[High_Jumbllama]

Aaahhh!. It'sheading for my vacation!!!! AhhH!

[KvHagedorn]

It's heading for Greebe.

Looks like s replay of Charley.

[Jessterw]

Hrm, maybe I shouldn't have mentioned anything about Tampa and getting hit...

[ND66]

Hrm, maybe I shouldn't have mentioned anything about Tampa and getting hit...

It’s not like it would make a difference… .
Anyway, I’m not flying tomorrow morning, just can’t justify putting my family at risk. My kids are 4years, 2.5 years and 9 months old, they’re just too little.
Even if the storm or hurricane misses WDW, the weather still would be miserable… .

It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least 74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of 39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing the most likely track area of the center.

Wind is not a stranger here (it’s a Windy City after all), still after Katrina it was blowing 3~4 times harder then normally. And those weird clouds circulating, it took a couple of days to clear it up.


I hope Ernesto will loose it strength in Cuba’s mountains & dies over there because once it hits the waters of the GULF OF MEXICO, it’s like adding gasoline to the fire… .

.

[Jessterw]

Well I was kidding about the drastic change in direction of the storm's path, but yeah, I can see not wanting to take the trip regardless. Having spent half of my life thus far in Florida there's not doubt that a hurricane or tropical storm hitting of the state can spell very bad weather for the rest.

As I was saying before, we never had a near or direct hit in the Tampa Bay area during the time I lived there, but we certainly got some horrid weather, which often included water spouts/tornados. Nevermind the flooding. Orlando is a bit better off being further north and inland, but in a state as narrow as Florida, that doesn't help much with water flanking all but the upmost part of the state.

Funny, to get away from it I moved to a state with a more tempermental sense of weather

Hope you can reschedule your trip. I haven't been to Disney World in at least 15 years and have been wanting to get my own kids out there for a vacation.

[Greebe]

look at the chart... @2pm Wednesday guess where I'll be... not at home if it's more than a Catagory 1.

[ND66]

look at the chart... @2pm Wednesday guess where I'll be... not at home if it's more than a Catagory 1.

Hope it goes way east from where you're at, every 12 Hrs it gets pushed over that way more and more.
As for us, we're not flying anywhere in the morning just in case... .

A.