Originally posted by Wombat
The big difference between theCD vs. SACD/DVD-A argument and the DVD vs. BD/HDVD is video. DVD was designed for NTSC/PAL televisions, i.e. what are now considered low resolution devices. Now if HDTV wasn't simply a booming market like is right now, then your point would be vindicated; however, HDTV sales are through the roof. And with prices on them rapidly dropping, HDTV sets approacing 1080p natural resolution, and HDTV broadcast/cable/satellite content very easy and relatively affordable to obtain, HDTV will simply keep booming. Add in that the FCC will require all set sold by the year 2008 (date got pused back from 2006 last I checked) to be HDTV, and people will simply have no choice when their sets die but to go HDTV. Now the difference between the DVD and CD argument comes into play here. Most people don't get the immediate return in quality with SACD/DVD-A like they will with BD/HDVD. The difference will be noticable immediately, and without costly (relatively speaking) equipment upgrades.
I'm not saying it will happen next year, because it won't. With Sony/Matsushita and Toshiba's talks falling appart, we're about to enter a nasty format war. But within 3-4 years, which is about how long it took DVD to go mainstream, when all TV sets being purchased are HDTV, the majority of computers will come with BD-R burners with 100+ GB of capaicty, and the cost to buy a BD/HDVD set top box or computer drive reaching the magical $199 mark, DVD will die. They will die for the same reason VHS is dying, or dead depending on who you ask. A superior technology with immediate improvements at the same cost will come out and kill it. End of story.
The only way I see DVD lasting longer is if there is no clear winner in the format war by the end of 2008. And then it my be an extra year or two before DVD dies.
Jammrock
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