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  • #16
    Originally posted by Wombat
    It won't be replaced, any more than CDs have been replaced. DVD has huge market presence, and people will need to burn DVDs for their DVD players just as I burn CDs for my CD player.
    But there's a fundamental difference beween DVD and CD. Most people, save us audiophile freaks, don't care about the purity of their audio source. Thus SACD and DVD-A have both relatively bombed because the average joe simply does not have the hardware to backup the increase in fidelity ... assuming the DVD-A or SACD even improved the sound quality at all (but that's a different debate all together). Thus CD has not, and will not in the forseeable future, be replaced. iPods and other digital devices are making a run at it, but they are still a ways off from being mainstream enough to replace CDs.

    The big difference between theCD vs. SACD/DVD-A argument and the DVD vs. BD/HDVD is video. DVD was designed for NTSC/PAL televisions, i.e. what are now considered low resolution devices. Now if HDTV wasn't simply a booming market like is right now, then your point would be vindicated; however, HDTV sales are through the roof. And with prices on them rapidly dropping, HDTV sets approacing 1080p natural resolution, and HDTV broadcast/cable/satellite content very easy and relatively affordable to obtain, HDTV will simply keep booming. Add in that the FCC will require all set sold by the year 2008 (date got pused back from 2006 last I checked) to be HDTV, and people will simply have no choice when their sets die but to go HDTV. Now the difference between the DVD and CD argument comes into play here. Most people don't get the immediate return in quality with SACD/DVD-A like they will with BD/HDVD. The difference will be noticable immediately, and without costly (relatively speaking) equipment upgrades.

    I'm not saying it will happen next year, because it won't. With Sony/Matsushita and Toshiba's talks falling appart, we're about to enter a nasty format war. But within 3-4 years, which is about how long it took DVD to go mainstream, when all TV sets being purchased are HDTV, the majority of computers will come with BD-R burners with 100+ GB of capaicty, and the cost to buy a BD/HDVD set top box or computer drive reaching the magical $199 mark, DVD will die. They will die for the same reason VHS is dying, or dead depending on who you ask. A superior technology with immediate improvements at the same cost will come out and kill it. End of story.

    The only way I see DVD lasting longer is if there is no clear winner in the format war by the end of 2008. And then it my be an extra year or two before DVD dies.

    Jammrock
    “Inside every sane person there’s a madman struggling to get out”
    –The Light Fantastic, Terry Pratchett

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    • #17
      I doubt that they'll force HDTV broadcasting by 2008. It just keeps. getting. stalled. And by then 1080p will be outclassed by something nicer, I'm sure.

      VHS was around for over a decade, nearly two, I just don't see DVD being kicked out after so short a time. But I suppose BD players could have DVD lasers as well?
      Gigabyte P35-DS3L with a Q6600, 2GB Kingston HyperX (after *3* bad pairs of Crucial Ballistix 1066), Galaxy 8800GT 512MB, SB X-Fi, some drives, and a Dell 2005fpw. Running WinXP.

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      • #18
        note for SACD/DVD-audio
        -both do indeed have superior audio quality over CDs (as to how much, it really depends on the specific recording)
        -there isnt too much available in SACD/DVD (but if you are a true audiofile all you listen to is Dark Side of the Moon anyways, so i guess selection doesnt matter)
        -one of the key features of DVD audio as opposed to regular CDs is 5.1 surround sound

        from what I have heard, (from the audio standpoint), SACD stuff actually sounds better than DVD-A, but dvd will probably win out the format "war" anyways
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        • #19
          One of my brother's groups did a SACD recording (probably a Handel) - it sold pretty well for a classical record, basically because at the time it was one of the only recordings available in SACD... audiophiles like to have something to test their expensive equipment on
          DM says: Crunch with Matrox Users@ClimatePrediction.net

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          • #20
            Originally posted by Wombat
            I doubt that they'll force HDTV broadcasting by 2008. It just keeps. getting. stalled. And by then 1080p will be outclassed by something nicer, I'm sure.

            VHS was around for over a decade, nearly two, I just don't see DVD being kicked out after so short a time. But I suppose BD players could have DVD lasers as well?
            Yes, all BD/HD-DVD player will be 100% backwards comptible with DVD and CD. Both consortiums have either a dual pickup system, or a dual laser system to accomidate this. I wouldn't doubt if some of the nicer BD/HD-DVD players had Faroudja or Silicon Images video processors in them to "upsample" DVDs to the antural resolution of the TV. Some of the DVD players already do that, but people will quickly find out that nothing beats watching a 1080p BD on an HDTV with 1080p natural resolution.

            That's why I believe, DVD will be the shortest lived CE success on the market Just my opinion though.

            Jammrock
            “Inside every sane person there’s a madman struggling to get out”
            –The Light Fantastic, Terry Pratchett

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            • #21
              Originally posted by |Mehen|
              note for SACD/DVD-audio
              -both do indeed have superior audio quality over CDs (as to how much, it really depends on the specific recording)
              -there isnt too much available in SACD/DVD (but if you are a true audiofile all you listen to is Dark Side of the Moon anyways, so i guess selection doesnt matter)
              -one of the key features of DVD audio as opposed to regular CDs is 5.1 surround sound

              from what I have heard, (from the audio standpoint), SACD stuff actually sounds better than DVD-A, but dvd will probably win out the format "war" anyways
              Neither format will win, imo. BD and HD-DVD will both support DTS++ (lossless CODEC) at the same resolutions as DVD-A (or so initial specs say). Despite the increase in fidelity from CD to SACD/DVD-A, they are all still compressed and lossy, just not as bad as say an MP3. Now imagine getting all of your favorite music in a 24/96 (or 24/192) lossless format straight from the masters

              Once again, just my opinion.

              Both Sony (SACD) and the DVD forum have "hybrid discs" that contain both an SACD and CD version of the ablum on the same disc. the SACD version is better simply because the hybrid disc is dual-layer on a single side, while the hybrid DVD-A/CD discs are dual sided (at least until recently). Plus Sony and a few others have "universal players" that will play DVD/SACD/DVD-A/CD/etc...

              Jammrock
              “Inside every sane person there’s a madman struggling to get out”
              –The Light Fantastic, Terry Pratchett

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              • #22
                Originally posted by Jammrock
                ... Add in that the FCC will require all set sold by the year 2008 (date got pused back from 2006 last I checked) to be HDTV, and people will simply have no choice when their sets die but to go HDTV. ...
                This is wrong. You're confusing you're "facts".
                <TABLE BGCOLOR=Red><TR><TD><Font-weight="+1"><font COLOR=Black>The world just changed, Sep. 11, 2001</font></Font-weight></TR></TD></TABLE>

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                • #23
                  I'm not exactly saying there is a war (if any) to take over the CD market, rather just the hi-def market. While both SACD and DVD-A have their strengths, as of right now DVD-A definitely has the advantage because DVD players are so common. Added to that, more and more people are spending big money home theatres - which all can play hidef DVD-A, but few SACD. As of right now I'd say DVD-A is "winning" - but there will probably never be a clear winner.
                  Now it would be good if players had both SACD and DVD-A capability (most likely what will happen) but what would be even better is if they actually combined the technologies.

                  note: personaly I really dont care about multichannel recordings, I like just stereo speakers. (apparently SACD is has multichannel stuff too, I didn't know that )
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                  • #24
                    Sacd, Dvd-a

                    Most people seem to stay away from SACD and DVD-A because of the analog cabling and their refusal to participate in the attempts in copy protection. That and the limited amount of multi-channel CDs.
                    <TABLE BGCOLOR=Red><TR><TD><Font-weight="+1"><font COLOR=Black>The world just changed, Sep. 11, 2001</font></Font-weight></TR></TD></TABLE>

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                    • #25
                      The Blu Ray/HD_DVD conundrum may be settled, especially since the courts overturned some aspects of the FCC broadcast flag that would serve as their copy protection scheme.

                      Also of interest is that Toshiba recently announced two updates to their HD DVD standard. The first can store 45 gigs; 50% larger than the 30g version previously announced. The second is a hybrid disc with 30g on one side and 8.5g on the other, which would be percect for SD/HD combo discs.

                      Since then the "word" in the video community is that Sony and Toshiba are having on again/off again talks to resolve the impass while Panasonic has announced that they will sit on the sidelines until the kiddies settle their spat.

                      Until then I'd not recommend anyone make any assumptions about what their next-tech device will look like.

                      Dr. Mordrid
                      Dr. Mordrid
                      ----------------------------
                      An elephant is a mouse built to government specifications.

                      I carry a gun because I can't throw a rock 1,250 fps

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                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Dr Mordrid
                        The Blu Ray/HD_DVD conundrum may be settled, especially since the courts overturned some aspects of the FCC broadcast flag that would serve as their copy protection scheme.
                        The *AA guys have already submitted legislation for the broadcast flag. Don't assume it's dead yet.
                        Gigabyte P35-DS3L with a Q6600, 2GB Kingston HyperX (after *3* bad pairs of Crucial Ballistix 1066), Galaxy 8800GT 512MB, SB X-Fi, some drives, and a Dell 2005fpw. Running WinXP.

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                        • #27
                          And don't presume that the courts will look on it any more favorably. The Fair Use doctrine has already been ruled on in Federal courts all the way up to the SCOTUS, so attempts to change the rules may not be looked upon kindly.

                          Dr. Mordrid
                          Dr. Mordrid
                          ----------------------------
                          An elephant is a mouse built to government specifications.

                          I carry a gun because I can't throw a rock 1,250 fps

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                          • #28
                            Fair use wasn't the argument last time, it was that it was outside the FCC's mandate. Largely because fair use won't work. I certainly think it should be considered fair use, but federal courts have upheld DVD encryption and found found DeCSS illegal, I can't see how ignoring the broadcast flag fight will fare any better.
                            Gigabyte P35-DS3L with a Q6600, 2GB Kingston HyperX (after *3* bad pairs of Crucial Ballistix 1066), Galaxy 8800GT 512MB, SB X-Fi, some drives, and a Dell 2005fpw. Running WinXP.

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                            • #29
                              Originally posted by Dr Mordrid
                              Also of interest is that Toshiba recently announced two updates to their HD DVD standard. The first can store 45 gigs; 50% larger than the 30g version previously announced. The second is a hybrid disc with 30g on one side and 8.5g on the other, which would be percect for SD/HD combo discs.
                              The Blu-ray group announced that TDK has developed a 100 GB BD disc that can be written to at 72 Mbps (9 MB/s) using the BD 2x standard. They also already have a single-sided, quadruple-layer hybrid BD/DVD disc that has a 50 GB BD capacity and an 8.5 GB DVD capacity The physical technology for BD is by far superior.

                              Since then the "word" in the video community is that Sony and Toshiba are having on again/off again talks to resolve the impass while Panasonic has announced that they will sit on the sidelines until the kiddies settle their spat.

                              Until then I'd not recommend anyone make any assumptions about what their next-tech device will look like.
                              True, but initial talks have broken down completely. Sony is completely unwilling to lose the BD physical layer technology as they have already locked it down as a PS3 spec. On top of that, it is by far the better of the two standards. Toshiba is unwilling to budge because they think it will cost too much more money to produce BD dics, despite Sony and Matsushita provings otherwise. The rumor mill has said that Sony was willing to adopt the Toshiba software/encryption/DRM technology, but it won't budge on the physical disc technology.

                              So unless one side decides to bend, we're going to have a format war on our hands.

                              Jammrock
                              “Inside every sane person there’s a madman struggling to get out”
                              –The Light Fantastic, Terry Pratchett

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                              • #30
                                Originally posted by Wombat
                                VHS was around for over a decade, nearly two, I just don't see DVD being kicked out after so short a time.
                                I do. By then DVDs will be over 10 years old. Also, consider this: The Nintendo Gameboy was the #1 portable from 1989 until 1999 or so. Then the GBA came out and reigned for just over half as long. Now we have the PSP and the DS.

                                The general trend I noticed with things, is that as time goes by, the current mainstream technology (for just about anything) is more short lived than it's predecessor.

                                But I suppose BD players could have DVD lasers as well?
                                I don't see why not. Throw an extra laser in there for $10. Done.

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