Global warming it must be true.

[Gurm]

Basically, there's a lot of enviro-nuttiness out there.

In fact, some of the most touted ideas in environmentalism turn out to be crap.

I have it on VERY good authority that from time to time we can't even FIND the supposedly massive hole in the ozone layer.

- Gurm

[The PIT]

Originally posted by Gurm
Basically, there's a lot of enviro-nuttiness out there.

In fact, some of the most touted ideas in environmentalism turn out to be crap.

I have it on VERY good authority that from time to time we can't even FIND the supposedly massive hole in the ozone layer.

- Gurm

Isn't it supposed to healing and should be soon totally gone.

[Dr Mordrid]

Gurms right. The ozone hole over Antarctica disappears on a regular basis, and of late when it reappears it's very much smaller than previously.

Dr. Mordrid

[Marshmallowman]

Its a seasonal thing, but luckily the global cfc reductions seem's to be working.
(takes longer than 5 minutes to get crisped in the sun now)

That is example of getting in early and adopting changes BEFORE the proverbial hits the fan. Even once cfc started being phased out it was worsening, its only in the last couple of years that it has started reversing.

While climate change is a very hard thing to pin down, there is strong evidence...Some of the evidence I am talking about are thing like ice core samples from antarctica(a very uncontaminated area) , which show % changes in gases and even the rate of ice build up to be changeing at rates that are very abnormal.

Look at scientific papers and reports from crdible sources and you will find significant evidence.

While there are suggestion that the global climate is very resilent , and has a natural mechanism for reacting to changes, the fact that the changes are in something that is mind numbling complex and of paramount importance to our very existance, would suggest that a lot of Caution be exercised.

It seems quite evident in a lot of credible scientifc literature that the changes we have already induced are going to take 50-100 years to make themselves fully evident, BUT if you wait until then to do anything it may well be to late to prevent some nasty global changes.

And a simple fact water levels are rising and at rate that is very significant This indicates that we are absorbing more heat, but that heat goes into melting ice so the temp barely changes.

I think a bit of caution and foresight now will save us from having to try to implement some near impossible changes in 50 years.

Most of the change needed that are talked about are not bad things. Doing them will make the world a better place in general. Some of them have even created new industries.

Bottom line, there is no reason not to do them, and there is a shite load of reason to do them.

[Brian Ellis]

Environuttiness is the word and is being displayed in large quantities in this thread, I'm sorry to say. I am not an environmental activist and I do not belong to any environmental NGO, such as Greenpeace. I have been closely involved with ozone depletion for over 20 years, now, at the highest levels on the technical/scientific side, so please give me a little credit for stating known facts and not village wisdom.

FACT 1. The atmospheric residence times of most CFCs lie between 80 and 100 years. This means that if we emit 1 kg of, say, CFC-113 today, there will still be about 368 grams of it in existence, evenly distributed at all latitudes and longitudes in 2083, still depleting the ozone layer. And 135 grams in 2163.

FACT 2. There are widely used products, such as halons (fire extinguishers), with higher ozone-depleting potentials (3-10 times worse than CFCs and longer residence times).

FACT 3. One of the major controlled substances under the MP, 1,1,1-trichloroethane aka methyl chloroform or TCA, has a lower residence time and ODP than CFCs. This was introduced because of the massive quantities involved. It is true that TCA concentrations, representing about 1-2% of total ozone depletion, in the atmosphere are beginning to drop and this has been a contributory cause to the slow-down in the rise of ozone depletion.

FACT 4. Phase-out of the manufacture of major ozone-depleting substances in developed nations (with some exceptions) took place on 1 January 1996. There is still USE (from stockpiles and recycled materials and, dare I say it, illegal imports) of them in many countries.

FACT 5. The manufacture and commerce of the major OD substances will continue in developing nations, as defined by Article 5(1) of the Montreal Protocol, until 2010, quite legally. This includes many major users, such as China, India, Korea, Malaysia, Egypt, Brazil and many others. (Some countries are unilaterally phasing out faster than the legal limit).

FACT 6. Many regulated and unregulated OD substances, including HCFCs and nPB, are still being manufactured and used in vast quantities in both developed and developing countries. Their final phase-out date, with intermediate phase-downs, applicable only to the regulated HCFCs, are 2030 for developed and 2040 for developing countries.

FACT 7: Greater care is being taken now, than prior to the Montreal Protocol, to reduce emissions of OD gases, but this is of relatively minor consequence. It is easy to recover and destroy the 30 g of CFC-12 in a domestic fridge, if the infrastructure to do so is there. It is less easy to collect the equal quantity of CFC-11 that was used to blow the foam insulation in the same fridge. It is not at all easy to recover the CFC-12 that has leaked from a car's aircon after a ka-boom or because of a perished hose.

In view of these 7 FACTS, a little thought will make one realise that it is ridiculous to say that the problem has now been solved, so I'll add a few more FACTS:

FACT 8: The so-called ozone hole over the Antarctic each September to October is a unique phenomenon due to a weather condition called the Polar Vortex. It is only one of many manifestations of Ozone Depletion. Up to 2001, the hole has been increasing in magnitude each year. In 2002, a unique thing happened: two Polar Vortices of lesser magnitude occurred (reminder: this is weather), so that less OD substances were transported to the stratosphere so there was less photolysis. This resulted in two smaller ozone holes, while there was no reduction of OD substances in the atmosphere.

FACT 9: Ozone levels over the Northern mid-latitudes, where the majority of the world's white-skinned (sensitive to UV radiation) population lives have diminished by about 10% over the last decade and are still diminishing by about 1%/year.

FACT 10: Global ozone depletion is modelled now to peak between 2040 and 2050, even though the rise curve has slowed down considerably.

FACT 11: We shall have restored the ozone levels to 1970 levels by about the end of this century, not sooner, assuming that the Montreal Protocol is respected and no new OD substances are developed.

FACT 12: The Parties (currently about 186 countries) to the Montreal Protocol still meet annually to appraise the situation and, when necessary, to introduce new binding Decisions and Amendments as and when necessary in order to continue valid protection of the ozone layer. If, as has been said in this thread, the problem was solved, this expensive exercise would not be necessary.

The worst has yet to come and this is known, proven, scientific FACT and not opinion.

[Gurm]

Thanks for the information, Brian.

I've never argued that we AREN'T doing bad thing to the environment, but when people point at some easy, pat, handy phenomenon or "evidence" and say "SEE? SEEEEE?????" I get pretty bent out of shape.

- Gurm

[The PIT]

Other effects that I wonder about if the warming trend continues. Will trees stay out all year long or just simply die?
The trees round our area used to loose al the leaves end of September Beginning of October. Now it's normally beginning of December that they're finally gone by.

[Brian Ellis]

That's a good question, CLB. I believe that what you will find is that the latitude range for a given species will change. For example, I have some peach/nectarine trees in my garden. I also had some in Switzerland. The leafless period here is early to mid-January to just now, so they have a very short rest period. In Switzerland, it was November to April. Although they seem just as healthy, the trees here appear more stressed (less growth). However, this is anecdotal because a) there is no proof of correlation between stress and short winters b) they may be different varieties c) annual rainfall patterns are very different d) summer and winter temperatures are higher here e) we get virtually no insect-killing frosts.

I can say that the latitude range for free-growing peaches is at least 35 - 45 deg, possibly even 55 deg in favourable locations (shelter from frosts and wind, high insolation, etc).

If there were a significant average annual temperature rise in locations, this range may move up 5 deg, at both ends, for example.

So the answer to your question is somewhat hypothetical, but my guess is that if you are at the bottom end of the latitude range, the tree may die; if you are at the top end, it will thrive better. I think that a deciduous tree does need a significant rest period of at least a couple of months to thrive well.

[The PIT]

Of course theres also other enviromental issues concerning plants and not just the climate. Increases in general pollution also have an effect.

[Jon P. Inghram]

All your oak trees will die, and be replace by 200 ft tall horsetails.

[Damien]

In Berlin at the end of last year some trees started to bud. The problem for some trees that start to bud twice in one year before winter sets is the that they use up allot of their reserves. If a long cold winter then sets in then the trees might not make it.

I am not a tree hugger or Enviro Nazi but spilling crap into the atmosphere like any other action has consequences. I just like to be aware of the environment I live in and the impact I have on it.

Treating our environment like a disposable product is probably not the smartest thing to do.


Damien.