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  • #16
    At last, it looks like we are on the way to a good debate here!

    I'll start at the end: I agree with GNEP that we would have to be very careful about harnessing ocean currents, even if it were possible. One of the problems is that they are constant in neither direction nor magnitude. If we take the Gulf Stream, for example, it moves N & S with the seasons. If we slow it down a little, there is just a chance that the underflow hypothesis may kick in earlier and cause W. Europe to have a new ice age. Then, of course El Nino actually reverses direction of one of the Pacific currents, whose name escapes me.

    And you can bet your bottom dollar that the anti-nuke hippies would become anti-harnessing-current hippies, in any case, as they are anti-everything hippies.

    I agree that wind farms (not necessarily offshore) offer the best bet in those climates where a consistent prevailing wind with an average velocity of 10 m/s or more occurs. Unfortunately, this happens only in the upper mid-latitudes (40 - 60 deg in both hemispheres). This means that a large belt from 40 N to 40 S is generally unsuitable for it. The Cyprus Electricity Authority has conducted a careful survey of the island and there is nowhere with an average exceeding about 5 m/s except for one small area on the S side of the Troodos mountains which is subject to diurnal katabatic winds of up to 6.5 - 7 m/s. As these turbines are non-linear, the output at 5 m/s is only about 30% of that at 10 m/s, so that it is doubtful whether a 1 MW windmill would produce an annual average exceeding about 300 kW, and this is not economically viable. You may think that it may be possible to have different blades on the turbine to operate at a lower wind speed, but the problem is that we also do have some very high gusty winds, so the wider blades would just break.

    Of course, the main problem with wind is what happens on a calm day? Then we have to resort to thermal power. Denmark is the most wind-powered country in Europe with about 18% of its electricity coming from wind. They have discovered that they have unbalanced the grid by wind and its variability. They now calculate that variable sources (wind and solar) should never exceed about 15% of the total requirements, without putting an undue strain on the backup thermal system. For this reason, they have stopped all renewable subsidies. The Blyth affair is a more or less experimental offshore mini-wind farm with 3 or 4 (?) 2 MW windmills in NE England. It was chosen because of its ease of connection to the grid (near a thermal power station) and quite a windy spot. One of the problems discovered is that it upset Britain's defence system (the rotating 65 m long blades play havoc with radars!).

    Yup! PV has not taken off very well because of its lack of competitiveness with wind and thermal. There is definite overcapacity and prices are at rock bottom, but still FAR too expensive. Current efficiency isn't too bad, at 120 - 150 W/m2. In climates like here, they would be ideal if cost were not an issue. In the UK and N. Europe, with half the sun and a lower angle of incidence, they would be even less likely to ever pay for themselves.

    The theory that they require more energy to manufacture than they will ever generate in a lifetime is an urban myth. Their energy payback time is actually only a few months.

    Someone evoked solar water heating. Again, it is ideal here and, in fact, I have it on my house. I need to switch on the immersion heater for an hour or so about 10 - 12 days per year for comfortable morning showers. It is GREAT! But, and it is a big but, we have a direct system that costs CYP 200 (GBP 220, USD 360). This means that, compared with the alternative of electric water heating, it has an estimated payback time of ~2.5 years, which is fine. However, the direct system cannot be used in countries which suffer from frosts. An indirect system is much less efficient and a typical system in the UK would cost GBP 2,000 - 3,000 and would provide sufficient hot water for a typical household for less than 200 days/year in SE England and less than 150 days/year in the Scottish lowlands. This is not economically viable, even if combined with an oil or gas fired CH system for the winter. For this reason, the UK offers a very conditional 50% subsidy on solar water heating, but even then it is not viable.

    You may wonder how I know all this. I happen to be a member of the Engineering for a sustainable future Professional Network run by the Institute of Electrical Engineers (in fact, I was a founding member and on the first and second Executive Teams, from which I retired last year). These are subjects very largely debated on the Network.
    Brian (the devil incarnate)

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    • #17
      Aren't there some powerplants that use the tidal difference for generating power ? (I thought I read somewhere that several experiments are going on, both in the UK and in Norway).

      There has been a lot of talk recently, localy here in Belgium concerning an off shore windmill park (both in Ostend and in Knokke). Environmentalists are actually opposed, because of the impact it might/could/will have on sealife (birds flying against the blades, disturbance of the ocean floor, ...). The costal areas are opposed, as they fear it will cost them in tourism. The fishermen are opposed because of the dangers (they say) when having to reach their fishing grounds. So the decission still has not been made (the case has recently brought to the equivalent of the supreme court).

      The problem is that the government has decided to phase out nuclear power (over a time of 20 years or so), but knowing that Belgium gets a lot of energy out of nuclear power plants (over 60 % !), means that alternatives need to be found and that a concesus should be obtained about what technology to adopt.

      Jörg
      pixar
      Dream as if you'll live forever. Live as if you'll die tomorrow. (James Dean)

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      • #18
        Brian, Blyth is 2 2MW turbines - see the link here: (PDF, 189Kb) http://www.shell.com/home/rw-br/down.../blythcase.pdf

        Another technology that hasn't come up here in any discussions I have seen here, but which has definite potential, is Hot Fractured Rock.

        We have the technology (high-temperature, high-pressure) oil wells for oil & gas production have been drilled for a good while now, and so are feasible (albeit still quite expensive...).

        Basically you drill a few big hole in the ground, lay a few exposives at the bottom, pump cold water down, let it heat up through the cracks in the hot rock, and come up hot though the other holes. You should be able to produce a closed-cycle system here, so no massive water supplies needed. Maybe a bit of washing-up liquid to ease the water through the rocks, but little else.

        Basically, you produce your own thermo-electricity plant wherever you need it (geology provided of course, although when you are making the holes, there is much more flexibility).

        All in all, as far as the future goes, we will see two strong trends:

        The de-carbonisation of fuels (coal --> oil --> gas)
        A larger spread of technologies and energy sources that we have seen in the past to make up our production needs. Basically, the times when a very major part (in the UK at least) of the electricity was produced with one fuel (coal) will seem like an abberation in an historical context. We will have a "portfolio" of electricity/energy production options, with a more balanced spread between them all.

        Gnep
        DM says: Crunch with Matrox Users@ClimatePrediction.net

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        • #19
          VJ

          Tidal power is still very experimental. One big problem is that it is usually proposed as estuarine, to ensure sufficient volume and estuaries are where you find most ports. It will be an enormous PITA for shipping, queuing for a place through the locks. Theoretically it is possible but I'm not too sure as to its practicality.

          As a confirmed professional environmentalist, I disagree with you that they oppose everything. It is the ecopolitical activist that opposes everything.

          Belgium's decision re nuke power stations is just plain stupid, if you will allow me to say so. It is impossible to supply 60% of a country's electricity requirements from renewable sources so you choice is limited: build more thermal power stations and thumb your nose at Brussels and Kyoto or import nuclear generated juice from France.

          Gnep

          Thanks for correcting me about Blyth. I can't see that far from here, very well, and my double vision must have kicked in!

          Geothermal generation is used (e.g., Iceland) and is an excellent renewable means, where you have sufficient "tameable" volcanic activity. I'm not too sure about the fractured rock method you describe. Sounds a little hairy to me. How do you prevent the wells from caving in with the explosion? Of course, the water would have to be heated to well above 100 deg C for it to be much practical use and recycling the water would seem difficult as a lot would be lost underground, quite apart from saturating it with minerals. Has this been done or is it hypothetical?

          The carbon in the fuels you propose decarbonising has to go somewhere -- where? For example, you can manufacture hydrogen from methane (e.g., fossil fuel natural gas) and water but you also get CO2. You might as well burn the methane and get the joules from the carbon as well as the hydrogen, to produce the same quantity of CO2.

          I agree with you that a balanced portfolio of power sources is a good way to go, but the portfolio must be different for each country, according to its resources.
          Brian (the devil incarnate)

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by Brian Ellis
            As a confirmed professional environmentalist, I disagree with you that they oppose everything. It is the ecopolitical activist that opposes everything.
            Perhaps I did not formulate my sentence properly (English is not my native language, so the difference between environmentalist, ecopolitical activists, et al is not so clear to me) (sorry). I was merely trying to illustrate that various parties are opposed to the proposed wind power project.

            Belgium's decision re nuke power stations is just plain stupid, if you will allow me to say so. It is impossible to supply 60% of a country's electricity requirements from renewable sources
            I'm not sure it was entirely Belgium's decission, I thought it had to do with some European guideline (but I could be wrong here). But you are 100% correct in that it is impossible, and there has been a lot of criticism (not as much as there should have been, but still...).


            Jörg
            pixar
            Dream as if you'll live forever. Live as if you'll die tomorrow. (James Dean)

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            • #21
              Absolutely there has to be a balance depending on resources available.

              The de-carbonisation of energy that I mention is merely a trend observed in carbon-based supplies - as coal has been replaced by oil and then by natural gas we see less carbon (and hence CO2) per unit of energy produced. I'm no chemist, but presumably this is as we have more C-H bonds and less C-C bonds in the fuel...

              HFR (Hot Fractured Rock) is not just theory - I believe that there is a pilot project underway in El Salvador (but I haven't managed to find much fully public info yet...). I'm no well- or drilling-engineer (nearly was once, though...), but I as far as I know, you can very tightly control explosions using directional charges in non-porous rock layers between two deep holes to produce a fine network of fractures that link the two wells. The water has nowhere else to go.

              Basically, it's the same as traditional geothermal energy, but controlled and closed-loop, and with much more choice of location.

              I'll have a further dig around here and see what else I can find (and divulge) if anyone's interested.

              Gnep
              DM says: Crunch with Matrox Users@ClimatePrediction.net

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              • #22
                Here's one link:

                DM says: Crunch with Matrox Users@ClimatePrediction.net

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                • #23
                  I know in northern Denmark, most of the power comes for windmill farms. A single windmill, with proper battery backups, can power 3-4 farms with ease.

                  Jammrock
                  “Inside every sane person there’s a madman struggling to get out”
                  –The Light Fantastic, Terry Pratchett

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                  • #24
                    How about the energy that can be developed by pumping cold water to the surface near the equator and using the Delta T to spin a turbine???
                    Let us return to the moon, to stay!!!

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                    • #25
                      i hear everyone here talking about alternative means of producing power. what about another approach: just use less. No discussion about smaller cars or the like here, its the small things that add up: proper isolated houses (zero-energy-homes are becoming more and more popular here - no need for AC or heating), "alternative" heating devices (we are using a ground water heatpump, for example). low-power bulbs, no standby-power... yeah, it's not much. but it adds up.

                      greebe told me some day that bricks like these are hardly used elesewhere: . my family built the house with two layers of these (results in walls ~50cm thick) - it stays cool (slightly above 20°) until end of july. and that was 20 years ago, nowadays there are far more advanced methods of isolating properly.
                      getting ot here.

                      and about producing electricity: why not realise stuff like that: http://www.saharawind.com/ . 1/2 the power hunger of europe could be satisfied...

                      *dreams on*

                      mfg
                      wulfman
                      "Perhaps they communicate by changing colour? Like those sea creatures .."
                      "Lobsters?"
                      "Really? I didn't know they did that."
                      "Oh yes, red means help!"

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                      • #26
                        wulfman!

                        btw, my parents have a solar system for warm water on their roof (with a tank in the cellar, and a gas therme for heating it up if it's not warm enough). Cost a little fortune, but the state gave some subventions, and my parents calculated that it'd take.. I forgot, 12 or 20 years till ROI. But they didn't do it for the money, of course (Though they aren't rich)

                        AZ
                        There's an Opera in my macbook.

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                        • #27
                          Yup. That has always made a lot of sense. Nowadays the US spends a v. large (don't have the exact %'s to hand...) proportion of its energy on (a) heating in winter and (b) cooling in summer.

                          Architecturally, these is a lot you can do when building houses/offices to help with no power input...
                          DM says: Crunch with Matrox Users@ClimatePrediction.net

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                          • #28
                            A critical component of any "sealed" house is a heat exchanger/heat recovery ventilator, without one you can end up with nasty fungal/chemical air contamination problems. And fusion is easy, just take about 2x10^30 kg of hydrogen and let it sit in a cool, dry place for a while. It should automaticly heat up and initate fusion without any user intervention.

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                            • #29
                              Brian,

                              Did you include in your the feasibility study the power required to have ac during the summer? Is 3kw enough for an average sized house running at least 5 ac 9kbtu units almost all day? Also did you take into account the cost of buying storage batteries and replacing them? I believe Cyta is using PV to power some remote trasmition stations but it seems the battery replacement is very frequent and costly.

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                              • #30
                                Efty, how warm does it get where you live? is AC really required?

                                AZ
                                There's an Opera in my macbook.

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