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    Ozone Hole Very Big But Short of a Record (New Zealand)

    The ozone hole over Antarctica is big but not likely to be the biggest ever, a scientist beneath it said Monday. "This year's hole shaped up to be a whopper," Stephen Wood of New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) said from Scott Base in Antarctica. "It hasn't quite made it to the record size reached in 2000, but it has been very close to that mark." ... the hole now stretches 27 million square kilometresmillion square miles), down from 29 million square kilometres (11.6 million square miles) earlier in the winter. In 2000, it reached more than 30 million square kilometres (12 million square miles). Last year the hole -- usually at its largest in September -- shrank to its smallest level in more than a decade and split in two. "Before we can confirm the expected recovery, we would need to see smaller or less severe ozone holes over a number of years," Wood said. "Realistically, it might take another 10 years before we can be sure." NIWA measures the levels of ozone in the upper atmosphere above Scott Base, New Zealands base on McMurdo Sound, due south of here. Wood said the ozone-depleted air was well contained over Antarctica and not affecting New Zealand directly, but later this year when it broke up in November or early December, ozone-depleted air could move over the country. A combination of lower ozone levels with few clouds and summer sun could produce extreme UV levels, and higher risks of skin cancer.
    Article @ http://www.terradaily.com/
    Source: Terra Daily -quoting: AFP, 22 September 2003


    ______________________________


    Stratospheric Ozone Study Indicates More is Needed for Full Recovery: Report Released on the UN International Day to Protect the Ozone Layer (USA)

    The world has come far, but not far enough, on solutions to stratospheric ozone depletion, says a study released today by the Global Environment & Technology Foundation. The report, entitled The State of Stratospheric Ozone Depletion, aims to raise the awareness of government officials, business leaders and the public on the current state of the stratospheric ozone issue, informing them of the new technologies available in today's marketplace, and illustrating how an appropriate mix of policies and incentives can motivate actions to mitigate ozone depletion ... Beginning with scientists' first recognition of ozone depletion in the 1970s, the report provides historical context for ozone over the last 30 years and describes current findings and observations on the ozone layer's road to recovery. It examines the role stratospheric ozone plays in the health of the planet and looks at the scope of the problem and actions taken by the international community to reduce ozone loss. The report also identifies the numerous steps taken by governments, business and public citizens to reduce ozone depletion and documents the progress achieved over the last several years. The report indicates that a formidable challenge remains - to cease production and consumption of manmade compounds that are primarily responsible for the destruction of the ozone layer. The report sites evidence that not only has the size of the southern ozone hole reached record proportions in the past few years but increasingly, ozone depletion problems are being observed in the Arctic as well. This evidence indicates a need for more stringent action by the collective global community to ensure all nations stop the production and use of substances that harm the ozone layer ... The report reviews the U.S. response to ozone depletion from the federal and state government perspectives, and looks at the leadership role U.S. industry is playing in developing new substances and processes ...
    Executive summary and/or full report, @ http://www.getf.org/cecs/Ozone_Study.pdf
    Contact: Anna Garcia, Director of State Programs, Email: agarcia@getf.org
    Source: The Global Environment & Technology Foundation, Press release, September 2003

    _______________________________

    Please don't jump down my throat - I'm only reporting!
    Brian (the devil incarnate)

  • #2
    But I thought that it wasn't going to get any smaller until 2050, Brian?

    - Gurm
    The Internet - where men are men, women are men, and teenage girls are FBI agents!

    I'm the least you could do
    If only life were as easy as you
    I'm the least you could do, oh yeah
    If only life were as easy as you
    I would still get screwed

    Comment


    • #3
      Again, Gurm, you are confusing climate and weather, in effect. The global mass ozone deficit, currently averaging world-wide at over 100 million tonnes of ozone, will slowly increase until 2040 - 2050, at which time, it will reach the peak of the curve and slowly start descending again. That is the climatic effect. The weather effect is very variable from one place to another and one time to another. Just as in some years you get more rain where you live than in other years and you may get a hot summer one year and a cold one the next, so the manifestations of ozone depletion are variable. OTOH, you may get the opposite effects in Washington State, so that it averages out.

      Capisce?
      Brian (the devil incarnate)

      Comment


      • #4
        Nope. I'm still not following.

        You have repeatedly claimed that the hole in the ozone is getting BIGGER AND BIGGER as the atmospheric ozone levels decrease.

        Now you say that it really depends on the weather?

        Make up your mind. You can't have it both ways. It can't be continuously and relentlessly increasing in size, and yet be at the whims of the stratospheric winds.

        "Global temperatures are rising... except when we have a record cold winter. Then they're not."

        I'm not arguing against the science of any of this - I'm arguing that we don't understand half of what we THINK we understand.

        - Gurm
        The Internet - where men are men, women are men, and teenage girls are FBI agents!

        I'm the least you could do
        If only life were as easy as you
        I'm the least you could do, oh yeah
        If only life were as easy as you
        I would still get screwed

        Comment


        • #5
          Here's an analogy Gurm.

          Say the company I work for increases it's profits over time. Yet within that TREND we have some better quarters and some worse quarters. Looking historically, a linear trendline might have an average annual increase of 5%. Yet a couple of bad quarters within that might, quarter-on-quarter, be DECREASES. Or even year-on-year be DECREASES. But a bad quarter doesn't mean the trend no longer applies. It might indicate that, but only if sustained for a good few years. (I'm talking about trends over >20 years here).

          You are mixing trend and variations about the trend up.

          Go learn some stats (I know you are being a bit of a devil's advocate here, but at least lawyers usually have some sort of logical argument worked out before they speak... )
          DM says: Crunch with Matrox Users@ClimatePrediction.net

          Comment


          • #6
            Nope can I remember a report saying that the hole is closing up and will close up and the present hole was just part of that trend and no longer anything to worry about. Sadly it was on a TV report so I haven't a link.
            Chief Lemon Buyer no more Linux sucks but not as much
            Weather nut and sad git.

            My Weather Page

            Comment


            • #7
              GNEP, nice analogy with those trends. On e prob is that we do not know how long a trend is supposed to last. Most general economists will say that the economy fluctuates around thre growth trend with a cycle of 5 to 7 years. Of course, Kondriatief had a cycle of 70 years (as I think you will be aware).

              The point is, even what we are experiencing now, could be deviations from the base trend (which could be "no change" which will even out in a period of 2000 years....
              Join MURCs Distributed Computing effort for Rosetta@Home and help fight Alzheimers, Cancer, Mad Cow disease and rising oil prices.
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              • #8
                The other problem is that you can't have a RECORD anything and still have it be part of a trend. We've been seeing some winter days that are RECORD cold days. That doesn't fit ANYWHERE in the trend of global warming. You can have "relatively cold days", which are colder than anything since the trend started, but when you have record cold days, follwed by a relatively mild summer... that's a recipe for global warming being ... err ... not really happening per se.

                I tend to think this ozone hole stuff is very similar, although Brian keeps vehemently disagreeing with me.

                - Gurm
                The Internet - where men are men, women are men, and teenage girls are FBI agents!

                I'm the least you could do
                If only life were as easy as you
                I'm the least you could do, oh yeah
                If only life were as easy as you
                I would still get screwed

                Comment


                • #9
                  Surely the 'hole' isnt a hole as such when its closed?

                  My understanding (and it could be worng ) is that each year we get a hole, this effect is dissapated accross the complete ozone layer over the rest of the year....

                  What I mean is this...

                  Year 1 (summer) average depth of Ozone layer = (say) 100KM
                  Year 1 (winter) - 20 M KM^3 ozone hole

                  Year 2 (summer) average depth of Ozone layer now 99.7KM
                  etc....

                  This raises a couple of questions (if I am correct in my assumption, which I may not be!)

                  Is the hole 'new' depletion - or is it an effect of the depletion accross the average depth...
                  Is there a measurable decline across the WHOLE ozone layer?
                  Does the hole happen because we have reached some sort of 'critical level' of ozone which induces the hole? (perhaps Solar radiation or the like assist in 'ripping' the hole bigger or smaller over time - is there a correlation?)

                  Gurm- I think you will find (as a DIRECT result of climate change) that globally the temperature of the planet as a hole is rising - there is no doubt about that now. Micro climates may experience a reverse - that is an established theory - Ireland will get warmer and wetter with shifts in the gulf stream.... El Ninio/El Ninia effects will change climates along the west cose of the americas. however, we will have cold years (there are fairly accurate seasonal temperature readings (through bog oak) in Ireland going back almost 3000 years... - that covers the 'medieval iceage' - which most of the nay-sayer climate profs use as part of their examples...

                  RedRed
                  Dont just swallow the blue pill.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Gurm
                    The other problem is that you can't have a RECORD anything and still have it be part of a trend.
                    Ever heard of a normal distribution? Some pretty long tails on those things...
                    DM says: Crunch with Matrox Users@ClimatePrediction.net

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Sure sure. Normal distributions are all fine and well, but what happens when you start seriously blowing the curve? Hmm?

                      - Gurm
                      The Internet - where men are men, women are men, and teenage girls are FBI agents!

                      I'm the least you could do
                      If only life were as easy as you
                      I'm the least you could do, oh yeah
                      If only life were as easy as you
                      I would still get screwed

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Take the log

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          The amount of ozone is decreasing and the amount of ozone in the atmosphere should reach its pre cfc...etc levels by 2050.

                          The ozone hole is a sympton of ozone depletion, the problem IS ozone depletion.

                          If the hole closes up thats great, but we are still getting higher UV level than before and this is going to continue for a while yet...

                          All people who have a problem with the ozone layer go live on a planet without one....

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Gurm

                            You're winding us up with your trolling. Just one other remark, neither scientists nor even politicians talk about global warming. The term is 'climate change' because this is what is happening: many places are getting colder, although most are getting warmer.

                            You'll find all the info you need to explain how it works at:
                            Brian (the devil incarnate)

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Is there any 'management brief' AKA short dummies guide on the subject - I would really like to know a bit more, however I dont have the patience for major works!


                              The ozone hole is a sympton of ozone depletion, the problem IS ozone depletion.
                              Thanks - I wasnt sure 'which way round' it was....
                              Do the magnetic and energetic effects of solar radiation have an impact?

                              Is the reason there is less of a hole in the Northern Pole due to a differnt type of polution or is it due to a different structure to the very high altitude wind patterns? Or is it something completely different?

                              What is actually replenishing OZONE? Is it O2 reacting with itsself
                              in the high radiation upper atmosphere? I know that Ozone can be released at sea level (at sea and in lightning storms) - but I take it that this relatively dense gas cant get to the upper atmosphere before breaking down...

                              RedRed
                              RedRed
                              Dont just swallow the blue pill.

                              Comment

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