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A new cause: CPDN

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  • A new cause: CPDN

    It is a good project, helping to predict the changes in our climates over the next century. We analyze some climate models they send us, and help to make them more accurate.

    Climate models predict significant changes to the Earth's climate in the coming century. But there is a huge range in what they predict - how should we deal with this uncertainty? If they are over-estimating the speed and scale of climate change, we may end up panicking unnecessarily and investing huge amounts of money trying to avert a problem which doesn't turn out to be as serious as the models suggested. Alternatively, if the models are under-estimating the change, we will end up doing too little, too late in the mistaken belief that the changes will be manageably small and gradual.

    To cope with this problem we need to evaluate our confidence in the predictions from climate models. In other words we need to quantify the uncertainty in these predictions. By participating in the experiment, you can help us to do this in a way that would not otherwise be possible.

    Even with the incredible speed of today's supercomputers, climate models have to include the effects of small-scale physical processes (such as clouds) through simplifications (parameterizations). There is a range of uncertainty in the precise values of many of the parameters used - we do not know precisely what value is most realistic. Sometimes this range can be an order of magnitude! This means that any single forecast represents only one of many possible ways the climate could develop.

    How can we assess and reduce this uncertainty?

    There are two complementary approaches to this problem:
    Improve the parameterizations while narrowing the range of uncertainty in the parameters. This is a continuous process and requires:
    Improving the models, using the latest supercomputers as they become available.
    Gathering more and more (mainly satellite) data on a wide range of atmospheric variables (such as wind speed, cloud cover, temperature.....).
    Carry out large numbers of model runs in which the parameters are varied within their current range of uncertainty. Reject those which fail to model past climate successfully and use the remainder to study future climate.
    The second scenario is the climateprediction.net approach. Our intention is to run hundreds of thousands of state-of-the-art climate models with slightly different physics in order to represent the whole range of uncertainties in all the parameterizations. This technique, known as ensemble forecasting, requires an enormous amount of computing power, far beyond the currently available resources of cutting-edge supercomputers. The only practical solution is to appeal to distributed computing which combines the power of thousands of ordinary computers, each computer tackling one small but key part of the global problem.
    We have a nice team going at the moment, ranking (just barely) in the Top 50. Of course, more are welcome to join.

    Another plus is that since the project is relatively young, we can catch up more easily than in some of the older projects, as the leaders are not too far ahead.

    Some notes though. this project demands quite a bit of horsepower (~800MHz minimum required), takes up 600MB of disk space when running, and the most important part if you join, you must complete your model or the data will be wasted and you will hurt the project.

  • #2
    then i will wait till i am in canada and have a real internet conection instead of this crap that i have here...
    "They say that dreams are real only as long as they last. Couldn't you say the same thing about life?"

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    • #3
      currently 1st phase 25,**% finished. where can I sign up?

      [edit]nevermind, I'm in.

      mfg
      wulfman
      Last edited by Wulfman; 12 October 2003, 02:59.
      "Perhaps they communicate by changing colour? Like those sea creatures .."
      "Lobsters?"
      "Really? I didn't know they did that."
      "Oh yes, red means help!"

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      • #4
        hehe, and thinking of the guys that got so mad cause seti changed it's client so it took longer to complete units, this one can take weeks just to complete one unit
        If there's artificial intelligence, there's bound to be some artificial stupidity.

        Jeremy Clarkson "806 brake horsepower..and that on that limp wrist faerie liquid the Americans call petrol, if you run it on the more explosive jungle juice we have in Europe you'd be getting 850 brake horsepower..."

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        • #5
          It's generally about a day between "trickles" - the interim stats updates... (of a few bytes).
          DM says: Crunch with Matrox Users@ClimatePrediction.net

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          • #6
            "Perhaps they communicate by changing colour? Like those sea creatures .."
            "Lobsters?"
            "Really? I didn't know they did that."
            "Oh yes, red means help!"
            BWAHAHAHAHAHHAHAAHHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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            • #7
              Originally posted by GuchiGuh
              BWAHAHAHAHAHHAHAAHHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!
              took you some time to notice my sig, hm? just for the records: terry pratchett, ian stewart, jack cohen: "the science of discworld"

              mfg
              wulfman
              "Perhaps they communicate by changing colour? Like those sea creatures .."
              "Lobsters?"
              "Really? I didn't know they did that."
              "Oh yes, red means help!"

              Comment


              • #8
                Currently not doing too bad on it 25% of phase 1 done, got about 7 machines on it, celeron's are damn slow BTW. *no news there* raptor666 is me.
                ______________________________
                Nothing is impossible, some things are just unlikely.

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                • #9
                  Joined
                  The Welsh support two teams when it comes to rugby. Wales of course, and anyone else playing England

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                  • #10
                    I think we need some more new members - the MURC team has stopped rising up the ranks and we have stabilised at 30 or 31 or so out of nearly 400 teams...

                    So come on folks and join in the "fun"

                    (And thanks to all those others who have done so already - we have crunched through 377 years of earth's climate between us, with 25 machines spread over 12 users)

                    Gnep
                    DM says: Crunch with Matrox Users@ClimatePrediction.net

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                    • #11
                      Attached Files

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                      • #12
                        DM says: Crunch with Matrox Users@ClimatePrediction.net

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                        • #13
                          Haven't you heard of holism? Where a butterfly flapping its wings in Asia can wind up causing a hurricane in the Atlantic? Just wait.. you guys are gonna devote all this time to this project, and I'll just walk out my back door, shake out my comforter, change the entire picture, and start an ice age.

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