This year's ozone hole has gone!

[Brian Ellis]

The seasonal "ozone hole" over the South Pole has disappeared again
after reaching record size earlier this year, UN officials said
Thursday. The hole is a thinner-than-usual area in the protective layer
of gas high up in the Earth's atmosphere. It has been forming in the
extremely low temperatures that mark the end of Antarctic winter every
year since the mid-1980s, largely due to chemical pollution. This year,
the hole peaked at 28 million square kilometres in mid-September -
matching the record size set three years ago. Scientists have said the
phenomenon results from destruction of the gas in the atmosphere by
chemical compounds, such as chlorofluorocarbons released in some
aerosols and refrigerants. The hole refills with surrounding ozone-rich
air as temperatures rise. In addition to its record size, researchers
said this year's ozone depletion also persisted longer. In October,
researchers said the conditions raised concerns about more harmful UV
radiation reaching Earth. "The ozone hole size and persistence have
developed similarly to the year 2000, with an early rapid growth
observed during August, a record size observed in September and finally
its disappearance in mid-November," said a statement by the World
Meteorological Organization. The use of chlorofluorocarbons has been
curbed under a global accord and levels of the chemicals in the
atmosphere have been declining. But scientists predict it will take
about 50 years for the ozone hole to stop forming. The lack of ozone can
let harmful ultraviolet rays from the sun reach the Earth's surface,
causing skin cancer and cataracts, as well as destroying tiny plants and
organisms at the beginning of the food chain.
Article @

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/1069383193728_23///?hub=World

Source: CTV Canada, 21 November 2003

[The PIT]

Now you see it now you don't. I guess they don't need an increase in their research budget for next year.

[Umfriend]

Told ya, GURM is always right!

[HomeBrewer]

Originally posted by The PIT
Now you see it now you don't. I guess they don't need an increase in their research budget for next year.

Of course they do! At least 25% increase to figure out why it went away.

[Gurm]

Re: This year's ozone hole has gone!

Originally posted by Brian Ellis
The seasonal "ozone hole" over the South Pole has disappeared again

God DAMMIT that has to be frustrating for them. It's kinda like when you're with a girl, and you JUST don't know what you're doing, and she just can't get off, but she keeps getting SO close, and...

It has been forming in the
extremely low temperatures that mark the end of Antarctic winter every
year since the mid-1980s,

Which coincidentally is the first time they bothered to look for it. When asked "did it appear every year for the past 1000 years?" they got very cross and refused to answer. Logic? Pah!

This year,
the hole peaked at 28 million square kilometres in mid-September -
matching the record size set three years ago.

Despite the decrease in CFC's and other pollutants worldwide. I wonder if this could possibly just be fluctuations? Nah. Fluctuamelicans, too!

...a statement by the World
Meteorological Organization.

Their motto?

"We can't predict if it'll rain or not, but DAMMIT that won't stop us from pontificating on everything under the sun!"

scientists predict it will take
about 50 years for the ozone hole to stop forming.

Other scientists, the skeptical kind, predict that it may NEVER stop forming, because it may have been around forever. These scientists tend to not get invited to parties by the other set of scientists.

- Gurm

[Dr Mordrid]

Has anyone noticed that these changes in the ozone hole have come at a wild point in the solar cycle....one with an outsized number of sunspots and highly ionizing coronal mass ejections?

Could it be that atmostpheric ionization caused by an 865,000 mile wide sphere of superheated plasma with a thermonuclear core is affecting the atmosphere FAR more than us puny little humanoids and our toys?

Has anyone even tested the effect of CME's and solar wind on the ozone hole? Doesn't seem they could since it was only "discovered" in the '80's and the solar cycle is 22 years. As such making presumptions about its past, present and future seems a bit premature.

Hmmmmmmmmm................

Dr. Mordrid

[Marshmallowman]

Great we are are on the edge of it and we are recording increased UV over the last 20+years and significant skin cancer increases (and record for that predate 80's by a long shot), but everyone is still thinks becasue it disappear every year its ALL OKAY.

I wish we could move it to the northern hemisphere, then you could live with it

PS: the ozone decrease is global, the solar wind will most effect only the poles so I guess there is some truth in it increase the hole itself, but the problem is the whole ozone layer, not the symptom(the hole)

Ah why bother if its not my problem I'll be right , and if it is I'll still be righ because our children will have to deal with it becasue I'll already be dead

http://www.deh.gov.au/soe/2001/atmosphere/atmosphere03-5.html#fg076

http://www.deh.gov.au/soe/2001/atmosphere/atmosphere03-5.html#fg077

[Marshmallowman]

Here are some figures for measured ozone (since 1950's) , its a teachers resource but the figures a official from Australias department of meterology.

http://www.bom.gov.au/lam/Students_Teachers/ozanim/Worksheet7.shtml

I'll see I can the screntific paper they were taken from(and there anaylsis)

Just read some stuff, Japanese and Australia scientist first noticed the *Obvious* decrese in ozone in the early 70's the hole made its appearance in the 80's

Ealiest measurements of total ozone were in the 20's

http://www.bom.gov.au/inside/oeb/atmoswatch/aboutozone.shtml

[KvHagedorn]

It's possible that fluctuations and large anomalies in the Earth's magnetic field are responsible for the increases in skin cancer as well. I saw something recently about how the Earth's magnetic field is supposed to "flip" (change polarity) every 300,000 years or so, which is preceded by large anomalies in its structure. For a period of perhaps 300 years, they are saying, the Earth will lose about 90% of its protection from those charged particles, resulting in an additional 100,000 cases of skin cancer per year (which sounds optimistic to me.)

This scares me almost as much as supervolcanoes. You know, evolutionists say the big changes happen almost overnight in geologic terms, say a few generations. Could this coincide with mutations caused by the huge amount of radiation organisms receive when their planet's magnetic field takes a holiday?

[Marshmallowman]

Without the magnetic field protection and a degraded ozone layer, it will be nastier than usual(?) when the poles flip.

[Dr Mordrid]

Have you considered that the reducing intensity of the magnetic field is at least partially causing the ozone hole size variations....especially since the largest field anomalies linked to an impending polarity change are in the southern hemisphere?

Also consider that the field exits at the south pole and enters at the north, which could explain why such anomalies show there.

Not to mention that Earths mass distribution has been more than a bit flaky of late;

http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/equator_bulge_020801.html

Given these changes I wouldn't trust any computer model that doesn't or hasn't taken these movements into account....even if their cause isn't fully understood.

Dr. Mordrid

[The PIT]

Basically we just don't know as it's a problem like Global warming that hasn't been studied long enougth. Now if we had time machines.

[KvHagedorn]

Even within recorded history, there have been significant climatic changes. In reading about the Vikings in North America and Greenland, they mention a climate which is milder than now in that area, which allowed for easier navigation to Greenland, Labrador, and Newfoundland. Supposedly in the 1300s the climate worsened which led to the abandonment of Greenland and the end of forays to the North American continent. That might explain why they mention grapes being found farther North than they are now, as well.

Another climatic footnote from that time is that in 1066, during the Battle of Hastings, the historians mention that the sea level was higher and that parts of the area were under water at the time. Perhaps less of the Earth's water was tied up in polar ice then..

So who can say how different we are making our climate? It certainly can't hurt to minimize our harmful impact as much as we can, though. Things like ozone depletion and greenhouse gas buildup can take many years before the full impact is known, and if we don't know just what we are doing, it is better to err on the side of caution.

[DukeP]

What KvHagedorn says.

I dont think anybody would disagree with me saying: Right now Humans are having a more confound effect on the planet than ever before.

Im not quite certain that we have the knowledge to match our abilities....

~~DUkeP~~

[Brian Ellis]

God Almighty! If only all of the pseudo-scientific pontification on this thread were channeled into something useful.

The Antarctic ozone hole mechanism is very well understood and has NOTHING to do with magnetic fields, solar flares or what have you. It is a weather-driven phenomenon, combined with the presence of man-made covalent halocarbon molecules, occurring in the Spring of each year (usually late August to mid-November).

A similar, but much weaker, thing does happen over the North Pole. However, it is of less significance as the temperatures of the marine ice there are much higher than those of the thick land-ice of the Antarctic.

The Antarctic ozone levels have been measured for many decades at the British base in Halley Bay. The first time the "hole" was observed was in 1980. Joe Farman, with whom I have met several times, thought that it was an instrument error and indented for a replacement. When he observed the same thing on both instruments in 81 and 82, he realised that something was happening. As the cautious scientist he is, he double-checked with NASA who confirmed that satellite observations showed the same thing (actually from a couple of years earlier, because their measurements went closer to the pole than the ground-based Halley Bay ones). NASA had ignored them because the ozone levels appeared preposterously thin and they simply didn't believe their measurements were possible. Farman published his landmark paper in 1984, if I remember correctly. This was the spark that set the whole process going into top gear. Since then, the science of what is happening has been one of the most-studied phenomena occupying thousands of atmospheric scientists world-wide.

We KNOW to at least 98% accuracy exactly what is happening in the ozone layer. I agree with TP that our knowledge of climate change is still incomplete, but we know enough to be very alarmed, but we do know about the ozone layer, ever since Dobson's initial measurements. The oldest permanent ozone-layer monitoring station was set up in Arosa in about 1928.

The following is a quotation from a book review I did for some scientific journals:
What is evident is that there are lessons to be learned from the Protocol and applied elsewhere, such as the closely related climate change issue. This is summarised by a quotation from Robert Watson, Co-chair of the Scientific Assessment Panel of the Montreal Protocol and former Chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, one of the world’s most renowned atmospheric scientists:
‘Although scientific evidence that human activities were causing stratospheric ozone depletion was quite robust in the late 1980s, there were a number of sceptics who said, “wait for perfect knowledge; there is uncertainty in the ozone models.” Unfortunately, the sceptics were absolutely right. The models were inaccurate. They underestimated the impact of human activities on stratospheric ozone. This means that with the Montreal Protocol and its adjustments and amendments, society will have to live with stratospheric ozone depletion not only over Antarctica, but over all of the globe, except for tropics and subtropics, for at least another 50 years. Some of the same sceptics are now saying that not enough is known about climate change.’

For those interested enough to learn the facts and not spout utter BS, the book is:
Title: Protecting the Ozone Layer
Authors: Stephen O. Andersen and K. Madhava Sarma
Publishers: Earthscan Publications Limited, London
ISBN 1-85383-905-1
Pages: xxix + 513
Format: Hardback
Price: GBP 40.00