US & France team up for UN SC resolution....

[Dr Mordrid]

The US & France teamed up ( ) today to get a UN Security Council resolution passed.

This resolution aims to discourage Syria from interfering with the Lebanese elections in order to keep their puppet government in place.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/meast/09/02/UN.lebanon.syria.reut/index.html

Who would'a thunk it?

Dr. Mordrid

[KRSESQ]

Fat lot of good its likely to do. UN resolutions have such a sparkling track record

I guess its just noteworthy that France is agreeing with us for a change.

Kevin

[Umfriend]

Read in the French Papers that it was actualy the US agreeing with France.

[rylan]

I smell something fishy... er frogs legs :P

[SpiralDragon]

lol... well people are not paying much attention to the UNSC about that... there are bigger problems here...

here is the run down:

1. after the announcement that Pres. Emil Lahoud will get a 3 year extension on his mandate even the politicians most opposed to the idea of amending the constitution to allow for such a precedent suddenly changed their tone to that of full support..
(Including PM rafic hariri) however there are still a few politicians who have the balls to speak their mind.. of those still opposed are the Walid Jumbulat group (consisting of Maronites and Druze; traditionally blood enemies since the days after the Ottoman empire screwed fakhredin's revolt) alas I fear that Walid jumbulat will live to the same conclusion that his father did. a bloody assassination by the Syrians (although denied by the Syrians and traditionally pined on the maronites even by the Druze who know better)

2. the majority of Lebanese people (Muslims and Christians alike) are opposed to this new amendment to the constitution how ever they just don’t give a flying **** any more since even if the president is changed he will still be a Syrian puppet, whomever he is. the Lebanese feel helpless and they do not have a unified leadership to make them rise up and revolt. Muslims and Christians mix together well here but there is no real mixed leadership that would really bring them together on the political scene for them to relay make them selves heard. they have no power and no trust of any one to really take any kind of action.

3. yesterday there where 2 demonstrations in down town.. 1st was against the amendment and the 2nd for the amendment. how ever my uncle noted that during the rally for the amendment (he was passing by) he saw that quite allot of the "supporters" of the amendment where actually foreign Syrian workers.

4. back to the UNSC resolution... I am happy with the wording "all FORIGNE" instead of just Syrian.... why? well here is a long explanation
a; if Syria withdraws now it will spell disaster for Lebanon. we will plunge into civil war once more. Syria will see to that.

b; although the official stance is that Syria is not occupying Lebanon but rather seeing to our safety and well being (Jesus that sounded like something out of a mafia movie) the truth is that although the Christians (maronites in particular) are calling for them to leave us alone the majority of Muslims although silent would also like to see the Syrians out.

c; Syria is not the only occupying force. Israeli still holds a small part of Lebanon to itself (don’t argue about this land actually belonging to Lebanon... the Lebanese fervently believe that it is Lebanese soil and rightfully ours and its an important point for what I will say later) also there are two associated problems with above mentioned.. the Palestinians (who inside their camps maintain their own law and order and are untouchable and they are armed... should Syria pull out they will be unleashed... add to that hisboula, the only Lebanese militia after the war to still be armed... the shiia also have a sort of self governess in their areas.. even in the suburbs in Beirut. the police and army do not trespass into their territories. these are relatively poor and rundown areas...

5; if Syria is to pull out now it will see to it that hisboula and the Palestinians run amok... the maronites will not stand for it eventually they will arm themselves and the civil war will begin again... due to Palestinians and Hezbollah running free they will attack Israeli targets from the south of Lebanon causing the Israelis to move in. Syria will probably also move in again to share the spoils again. the French and Americans may decide to come in and make things worse or they might just let the Israelis and Syrians do the work... however this would be the perfect excuse for the USA to show syria the might of the American army combined with that of Israel.... Iran will then show its teeth and join in the fight...

well I know I am fantasizing the above scenario but it is a very likely scenario...

another scenario would be that the Syrians do not leave Lebanon and the Americans, French and Israelis will decide that is not acceptable and move in to "force" the Syrians out ... they wont stop there however they will move on to remove the "evil tyrant" (a childe BTW) Iran will get involved yada yada da...



you see these are very likely possibilities... that is how most Lebanese see it... in any event all Lebanese know one thing; no mater what happens... no mater what scenario is cooked up... one thing is for sure... the people of Lebanon (whether Christian or Muslim or Druze) are defensively ****ed... which is why they have all mostly stopped caring what other nations like France and the US say or promise... because they have learned from past events that any promise from anyone will inevitably be broken. and then they will be left alone to rot like before...

the Lebanese people do not want war... they certainly don’t want civil war.. (like there is anything civil about it) but you see instead of an unprecedented unity of Lebanese people of different religions there will not be a revolution which is much needed... there can only be a civil war... because our political system and education is groomed for any even to result with a single out come.



for real peace the following must happen first.
Israel must return occupied land... must release any remaining Lebanese prisoners and must stop any sort of military hostility towards Lebanon... that way hisboula will not have any excuse to remain armed... obviously hisboula must be disarmed prior to any Syrian withdrawal.... then the Palestinian problem here in Lebanon must be taken care off... either by deporting the Palestinians in the camps back to Palestine or by providing the Palestinians with a sort of deal ... better living standards.. better education... better rights for exchange of demilitarization, handing over of criminals, and dissolution of any Palestinian political body...

although when one says Lebanon the picture of Christian extremists does not pop to mind (rather its the Muslim extremists that pop to mind) there are far to many radical and racists Christians... they, like their Muslim counterparts must be shut up.

the educational system in Lebanon needs a serious upgrade... religious grade schools must be shut down.. Teaching of a single religion (or teaching of religions with bias to one) must end... and replaced with more ethical, tolerant, teaching of all religion as a science rather than a faith... etc...

Lebanon’s public and privet infrastructure needs a total overhaul... its not up to date with anything...

the government must be dissolved along with parliament ... the constitution must be rewritten in a way that places checks and balances much like those that exist in the US... corruption must be decapitated starting from the top officials down and not the other way round... (a long story in it self .. will explain what i mean if you wish to know)

Syrian influence and corruption at this stage can start withdrawing.... and every one can live happily ever after...

now the above solution is the lease likely of the three I have given... I just hope that we get the Canadian immigration visas in time.. time before the shit hits the fan....



@Schmo: your PM box is full

[Dr Mordrid]

I presume Lebanon is elegible for aid by UNESCO?

I mean...you guys tout up how great the UN is....now is a chance for it to prove itself. It's obvious having Syria in there for ~25+ years hasn't done anything to help the schools, build the infrastructure etc., right?

IIRC Lebanon was known as quite a garden/vacaton spot until Syria felt it needed a second front against Israel & turned it over to Hezbollah.

Dr. Mordrid

[SpiralDragon]

yeh... the situation here is all ****ed up .... especialy on the educational front.. it neads serious work... i can tell you what the educational system needs... but now how to get it to happen... i can tell you how to theoreticly make it work... but not how to set it in motion...

concerning hizbolah... they apeared around 1982... thats 7 years after the civil war began.. syria is a big problem to lebanon... but it is not the only problem... its all this out side (self intrest) interferance from every one from day one that has lebanon so ****ed up.. its also the people of lebanon... they are just... lost... i dont know how to quite explain it... the people of lebanon are just lost...

i mean hay... we realy dont have a national identety... we are a people who hold on to traditions and faith and religions but we have no hope.... no furture... and i think this along with the lack of proper education is what drives us to inaction... another problem is that curuption has become something that is in peoples blood... suport from UNESCO is great.. but there are just to many curupt people here who will just miss use it if it is left in the hands of lebanese people.... the majority of teachers here are inadecquet..... i dont know.. i am not making mutch sense to myself atm.. i will try to takle this problem later when i am in a better state of mind... i am just not up to it right now....

[DukeP]

Nice posts Spiral..
Alas, I can bring no solution other than time and fortune.

~~DukeP~~

[schmosef]

SD, by suggesting that Israel is still holding land are you referring to the Shebaa Farms?

I'm confused because even the UN ratified Israel's withdrawal to the Blue line in 2000.

edit: typo

[SpiralDragon]

yes i am refring to the shebaa farms... its a point that is held in place as a reason why we still need the hisboulah resistance movment.... its also a point that most lebanese agree upon... as far as i know the UN alote the land to syria.. who in turn sais its lebanese land... personaly i dont give shit who it belongs to... but its an argument point that is used to let every one know that lebananese soil is still ocupied and under threat from the israilies... i know if shibaa farms where returned they will come up with something else... however as long as thier is no lebanese land that is desputedly ocupied hisboulah will not have a viable excuse in public opinion...

[schmosef]

SD, let's underline the point you made that the Shebaa farms issue is just an excuse.

Israel conquered the land in a war with Syria. Israel has said it is willing to give the land back to Syria through a peace treaty.

By claiming to cede the land to Lebanon, Syria is trying to avoid peace negotiations with Israel, or, at the very least, hoping to get a different concession, one that it couldn't get if Shebaa was on the table.

It's just a ploy.

At some point, one has to take a stand. If it wasn't Shebaa, it would be something else. Israel cannot be expected to go above and beyond its side of the bargain when Lebanon hasn't even lifted a finger to comply with its responsibilities.

Under the UN brokered withdrawal, Lebanon is obligated to reassert itself in any land vacated by Israel. It hasn't done that. I seem to recall Hezbollah making a statement to the effect that it would continue to operate regardless of Israeli withdrawal. Hezbollah have taken up all the former positions held by Israel. Is anybody really supposed to believe that Hezbollah will simply disappear if Israel gives Shebaa to Lebanon?

[schmosef]

To borrow a joke from SNL (which I believe was about Gaza), Shebaa farms is a piece of dirt so small, if you found it in your dinner salad, you wouldn't send it back!

[SpiralDragon]

... i am not arguing that its a ploy... however i an looking at this from a PR point of view... i dont know if you can tell but i dont like the presense of hisboulah here as mutch as i dont like the syrian, israilie, palestinian and other presence here... like i said.. the peacfull option is the one that is not wanted by any party.. eventualy the lebanese are going to get what they have been getting since forever.. screwed over by every one... even by the lebanese themselves

[SpiralDragon]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3630054.stm

more news... stupid lebanese politicians buckle at any frigin thing

[schmosef]

People had a lot of hope that Bashar's taste of Western life would lead him to make progressive reforms when he came to power. Instead, it's impossible to tell what his strategy is. He's like a little kid caught in his father's shadow.

He'll be assassinated soon enough.