MURC features on the news!

[GNEP]

Well, indirectly at least - our trusty team of crunchers contributes to this project

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4210629.stm

Also all over the headlines in the UK today (tabloid take is of course doom-mongering) - is this getting picked up in other countries?

Of course, there are still places open on the team - see sig!

[Brian Ellis]

The 11°C rise is an extreme upper limit and is most unlikely.

Notwithstanding, as I've said many times in the past, climate change is with us and a rise of 1-2°C is certainly a possibility by 2050 if we don't take active steps.

What can we, as individuals, do? A lot.

- Buy only low-consumption cars (~4l/100 km) and scrap SUVs and the like. Hybrids are ideal for mainly town use.
- Use the car only when it is strictly necessary
- As a temporary measure, change oil-fired central heating to natural gas-fired
- Install solar panels on your roof for hot water and electricity
- Compost garden waste and use it instead of chemical fertilisers
- Press your electricity supplier to buy their energy only from renewable and nuclear generators, least of all from coal-fired sources
- Consider seriously that oil supply is roughly at peak or will be so within the next 5 years: after that, supplies will start to diminish and prices will rise steeply: we must be less oil-dependent
- Consider seriously that natural gas supplies will peak within 10 - 40 years and supplies will diminsh and prices will rise steeply (alarmist? no! The USA and the UK are already post-peak and are importing ever-increasing quantities).
- Consider that the diminishing supplies of oil and gas will have repercussions across the whole energy supply industries and prices will rise across the board for all kinds of energy.

The diminishing supplies of fossil fuels will help climate change, but not fast enough, with the risk that coal may take over - and that's ten times worse

I think 2005 will be a year of increasing awareness of the problem, but the awareness is not helped by alarmist headlines, such as in the quoted article.

[KvHagedorn]

I think a drastic reduction in world population is the only real solution. Mother Nature might be working on that.

[Brian Ellis]

Are you volunteering to be in the first batch for the gas chamber?

[KvHagedorn]

Whoever gets stuck in the volcano..

Why don't you reread my post?

[Dr Mordrid]

Let's also not forget that we are late in an interglacial period and that some increase in CO2 could well stave off the next freeze for a bit. I dunno about you, but I'd prefer shirtsleeve weather in winter to another glaciation anytime.

To get a perspective on how much CO2 it takes to stave off a global freeze just look at the papers on "Snowball Earth". 600 million years ago Earth was one solid snowball with glaciation all the way to the equator.

It took the cumulative effect of volcanic eruptions putting out enough CO2 to up its atmospheric level to 200,000 ppm (20%) in order to get things melting. The result was a huge speedup in evolution as life went from just cyanobacteria and algae to fish and land animals in geologically short order.

To put this into perspective the pre-industrial level of CO2 was about 280 ppm. Current levels run about 360 ppm.

More powerful things than CO2 affect our climate, Precession of Earths axis (a 25,920 year cycle) and solar output for two.

Also of note is an irregular (meaning it can shift suddenly) ~2.7 degree drift in Earths spin axis, best exemplified by the Tropic of Cancer moving 1 km south since about 1908; a rate of 14 meters/year and corresponding to an expansion of Earths temperate zones of about 1500 sq. km. per year.

Basically if you change the Earths tilt you can change the percentage of sunlight that falls on dry land at a nearly vertical angle. If the percentage that falls on dry land increases vs. water (which is less dense and more reflective) then Earth warms.

Another factor is the impending magnetic pole reversal. As this approches (recent intervals = ~7,000 years and overdue) the Earths magnetic field weakens (10% in the last 150 years), which can also contribute to atmospheric warming.

Dr. Mordrid