IRA gives up armed struggle : We win?

[RichL]

This might have to be moved to the Temp forum...

The IRA has formally ordered an end to its armed campaign and is to pursue exclusively peaceful political means.
In a long-awaited statement, the republican organisation said it would follow a democratic path ending more than 30 years of violence.

The IRA made its decision after an internal debate prompted by Sinn Fein President Gerry Adams' call to pursue its goals exclusively through politics...
Complete BBC Article

Hurrah, we win.
Or do we?
Whilst on the face of it, the IRA giving up armed struggle is a victory, it's rather a hollow one IMHO.
Over the years, the IRA has been linked with all sorts of nefarious things involved in raising money for their cause. Smuggling, Robbery, extortion, counterfeitting, even drug dealing. It must be true that there exists a hard core of people who are adept at dodging the attentions of the Police, aren't squeamish about using violence, have access to guns and weaponry and either have the tacit support of or have intimidated into silence large proportions of the local population. We're looking at an organisation that has the potential to make the Mafia look like complete amatuers.
It would be nice to think that these people will breathe a sigh of releif, pack up their businesses and go find a legitimate job. Call me cynical, but I don't think all of them will.

Even worse, the British Government is now in the situation it would have to justify deploying troops to the province to deal with criminal organisations rather than terrorist ones.

I fear this does not bode well for Northern Ireland.

[Brian Ellis]

Even if the IRA renounce on violence, the Catholic splinter groups and the extremist Protestant groups won't. Little has changed. In reality, I expect more extremist violence there in the near future, because the best anti-terrorist factions are busy elsewhere.

I am more sanguine than you about an upsurge in other criminality which will certainly not be managed by troops.

[Nowhere]

Well...definetelly "old style" mafia do looked like amateurs when, after iron curtain fell, some (only some...) people from security police, etc. (UB/SB here, or Stasi somewhere else, or KGB...) turned out not beeing politically correct enough to work on the "good side". So what they were supposed to do...especially since there was only one thing they were good at - and that was beeing the most organised, perfectly trained and equipped "mafia" in the world.
Who knows how it'll be in Ireland...
(you can watch movie "Psy" (the poster is...not the one of the movie; andwho the heck translated PL word for dogs as "Pigs"? Unless "pigs" is used as pejorative term for police...) (link if anyone's interested...). Cult movie here, cult dialogues (impossible to translate good...and without this it might give wrong impressions: the first comment on IMDB is somewhat true, second is quite good, third - uhmm, I'm not going to talk about that one), not easy overall, but gives some insight...(don't watch with children)
sequel is little worse, but also good)

[Umfriend]

Even if the IRA renounce on violence, the Catholic splinter groups and the extremist Protestant groups won't. Little has changed. In reality, I expect more extremist violence there in the near future, because the best anti-terrorist factions are busy elsewhere.

I guess "we" should demand the same active denounciation by Catholics of any violence of these Catholic splinter groups and mutatis mutandis from the Prospectus, just like we do from muslims against muslim extremists. Similarly, if these groups indeed remain active we should demand the respective churches to call upon their constituents to inform the police of any suspicion of involvement in such actions.

[Wombat]

It must be true that there exists a hard core of people who are adept at dodging the attentions of the Police, aren't squeamish about using violence, have access to guns and weaponry and either have the tacit support of or have intimidated into silence large proportions of the local population. We're looking at an organisation that has the potential to make the Mafia look like complete amatuers.

Why do you think the IRA is capable of this, but your government can't kill people without being detected?

[RichL]

Why do you think the IRA is capable of this, but your government can't kill people without being detected?

Because I don't see black helicopters hovering overhead every five minutes.

[Brian Ellis]

I guess "we" should demand the same active denounciation by Catholics of any violence of these Catholic splinter groups and mutatis mutandis from the Prospectus, just like we do from muslims against muslim extremists. Similarly, if these groups indeed remain active we should demand the respective churches to call upon their constituents to inform the police of any suspicion of involvement in such actions.

Sorry, this won't happen. Snitches, grass, informers etc. and/or their families would be systematically eliminated. In any case, the Catholic groups like Real IRA, responsible for the Omagh bombing etc., have nothing to do with either the IRA or the Church. The members are catholics, but the group isn't. The Protestant extremists like the followers of Ian Paisley, may also separate their churchgoing activities from their terrorism. They also seek to provoke the Catholics to violence (cf. Orange marches, etc.). IMHO, these guys are worse than the Catholics and I say that as a Protestant.