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Dunno if it'll even be 15k years. Betelgeuse (AKA Alpha Orionis: one of Orions shoulders) is likely to go supernova sooner than that....much sooner. Some say less than 1000 years and others say it could happen tomorrow.
Betelgeuse is a red supergiant star as wide as the orbit of Jupiter and weiging about 15 solar masses. Being so large it's very possible it could collapse into a black hole since the minimum for that is only 3 solar masses.
If Betelgeuse does collapse into a black hole it could also cause a gamma ray burst, in which case we could well take quite a radiation hit even at its 560 light year distance. Such a burst is thought by many to have caused the Ordovician extinction 440 million years ago. At the very least its explosion could well compress the heliopause back to Earths orbit and dramatically compress Earths own magnetic field.
We would get ZERO warning as the light from the supernova would arrive at the same time as the GRB. Space probes going in that direction, if any, could give us a few minutes warning as their electronics get fried but no way could we avoid a huge problem.
Thing is Betelgeuse could have already blown up to 500+ years ago and we just haven't seen the light announcing it yet.
Dr. Mordrid
Last edited by Dr Mordrid; 22 December 2005, 13:32.
Dr. Mordrid ---------------------------- An elephant is a mouse built to government specifications.
I carry a gun because I can't throw a rock 1,250 fps
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Space probes going in that direction, if any, could give us a few minutes warning as their electronics get fried but no way could we avoid a huge problem.
...
I'm left wondering how exactly would we notice the fact that probes went silent before the gamma burst that silenced them would hit us...
One going dead, showing a signal spike or going off course might get a bit of notice. Two or more over a short timeframe would raise red flags all over the place, but only for a very short time.
The gamma rays would race along parallel to the probes telemetry (or end of same), arriving in very short proximity to each other. The first fatalities would be those in orbit as they'd have no protection.
Earth may or may not get some protection from our atmosphere and magnetic field. A high enough radiation pulse could well cause problems by deforming the magnetic field and atmosphere enough to give the surface an unhealthy blast or gamma rays or at the least charged particles.
Much as I hate to say it; think the beginning of The Core.
Dr. Mordrid
Last edited by Dr Mordrid; 22 December 2005, 14:07.
Dr. Mordrid ---------------------------- An elephant is a mouse built to government specifications.
I carry a gun because I can't throw a rock 1,250 fps
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