What da .... !

[ND66]

First vacation in about 5 years, and it could go down the drain becouse of the Tropical Depression FIVE !

Flying out monday with the wife & kids to Walt Disney World in Florida... .

Wish me luck.

.

[Brian Ellis]

The chances of it hitting Orlando with strong winds are almost zero, within the next 5 days. The chances of it reaching hurricane strength anywhere in Florida within 5 days are zero.

You will get stronger winds where you are, around the Hancock Building!

[ND66]

You will get stronger winds where you are, around the Hancock Building!

True.


But I did see them making a sharp turn from the projected path... .

[Dr Mordrid]

This looks like one of those sidewinders that hooks into the Yucatan.

[The PIT]

well it's been a quiet year so far although they still expect it too pick later.

Good site to check out is www.netweather.tv and look under storms and extreme weather. They get updates every day there and discussion whats likely to happen next. They even beat the experts sometimes.

[ND66]

Well, there could be a good thing happening along with the bad weather... .

I forgot about it when making the reservations, after that it was over $600 just to change the flight departure a day earlier... .

The weather forecast for the launch of space shuttle Atlantis worsened slightly Friday, with storms expected in the area hours before Sunday's launch.

There was a 40 percent chance that weather at the Kennedy Space Center would prohibit a lift off at 4:30 p.m. Sunday, NASA's first launch opportunity, said Kathy Winters, shuttle weather officer.

Area storms likely will push westward before liftoff, Winters said. But NASA won't launch if there are storms within 23 miles of the shuttle landing runway, in case astronauts need to make an emergency landing.

"We're probably go red through the countdown," said Winters, referring to a violation.

Forecasters were also watching what was expected to become Tropical Storm Ernesto, although it wasn't expected to affect Sunday's launch.

[ND66]

Good site to check out is www.netweather.tv and look under storms and extreme weather. They get updates every day there and discussion whats likely to happen next. They even beat the experts sometimes.

Thanks, I'll check this out.

.

[ND66]

Could be a close call ... .

[The PIT]

Shouldn't survive very long as Atmospheric conditions aren't good at the present time.

[Kooldino]

Could be a close call ... .

Not really. Not only is it a bit off the coast of FL, but Orlando is 1+ hours inland, and nowhere near the south.

[ND66]

Not really. Not only is it a bit off the coast of FL, but Orlando is 1+ hours inland, and nowhere near the south.

True, only if the jet strems blows the same direction as they do now. With a little change, this storm could make a sharp turn and dump a crap load of rain water on orlando... .


.

[Brian Ellis]

Jet streams occur mainly at the N limit of the Hadley Cell as per map. There are no jet streams in that region. The storm is being spawned at the N. side of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, where the Hadley Cell has its uplift. This will, with the aid of additional thunderstorm uplift, cause the tropopause to rise to 18 km or higher, which is well above jet stream altitude, anyway.

As you can see, the jet stream is expected to stay stable over the next few days, anyway.

[The PIT]

How things change. It's survived the high level winds that were trying to break the storm apart and these have now eased. So the storm is regathering itself and is heading into favoral waters for further development.

Could well build into the first major Hurricane of the season.

I'll quote a friend guess they won't mind.

Overnight Ernesto hs slightly strengthened with winds now upto 45mph and pressure down to 999mbs. Prehaps more importantly Ernesto has much improved in terms of organisation as I sort of half expected last night however what has happened is the shear has eased off a little which as we started to see yesterday has allowed the LLC to fall back with the MLC. It has got some deep convection and IF it can keep this as it heads into the central Caribbean expect some pretty fast development, major hurricane status before Cuba/yucatan channel isn't as silly a sit sounds and its a very real chance. Any fast development shouldn't occur at least for the next 12-24hrs however as the shear is still present even if it has lessened off since last night and the cente ris in the western most mass of convection so its still lop-sided.

The models are even more concerning bringing Ernesto on a similar track to hurricane Ivan 2 years ago that ruined Pensacola:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

However these models may well be being over-progressive and considering Ernesto is to the south of where the models expected right now the probablity is the storm will be to the west of the models which will probably put Texas and LA in the firing zone and considering this was the week Katrina hit last year it would be very bad luck if something similar occured this year. However its still FAR to early to tell about track and possible landfall but I'm very concerened about this storm now given just how favorable the gulf is, depending on timings of eyewall replacement cycles in the gulf cat-4/5 is certainly a possiblty.

[Brian Ellis]

Isn't this the time that FEMA guys go on vacation?

[KvHagedorn]

nah.. this is when they take their 6 week seminar in political correctness. First things first, you know.