Thank you George....

[Dr Mordrid]

Just goes to show the power of psychology on the oil market. That market is 75% perception, and until now the perception was that the US wouldn't drill offshore or in the Alaskan deposits. That perception made speculators think fixed supply would let them keep bidding oil up.

Next thing you know GWB dropped the 30+ year old presidential executive order against drilling in many offshore locations and Alaska and gee whiz...all of a sudden the perceptions changed and the speculators started bailing on oil futures.

Even the suggestion that production would go up burst their oil bubble. Imagine that

As a result oil dropped from almost $160/bbl to just under $125/bbl over a 2 week span and it's still trending downward.

Before this all started our areas gas prices peaked at:

Regular: $4.18/gal
Premium: $4.38/gal
E-85: $3.79/gal

Now they're here and still falling:

Regular: $3.74/gallon
Premium: $4.05/gallon
E-85: $3.36/gallon

IMO if Congress dropped their drilling ban oil would go under $80/bbl and gas below $3.00/gallon without even sinking the first bit.

This isn't to say that we should slow down the transition to bio fuels and electric/hybrid vehicles, we should speed it up drastically, but increasing production now will give us a buffer in both time and energy security in case the middle east situation with Iran goes poof.

[Jammrock]

That and new finds in North America say there is tons of crude for the taking here. 2 billion barrels in the arctic, with just over a third in Alkaska. Between 800 BILLION and 2 TRILLION barrels of shale oil in the Rocky Mountains, and new finds in the Gulf of Mexico. The big problem is tap into new sources and the fact that all the refineries are old and failing...

[DukeP]

I think theres room for some technological advances inside the field of refinery. Get some new hightech refineries up and running, and who knows which oilfields would become profitable again...

AFAIK a lot of the worlds refinery are still running on '60s tech.

~~DukeP~~

[Nowhere]

Bummer... :/

Yes, Doc, you're saying that we should "speed up conversion to alternatives drastically", but face it, it will only happen due to financial reasons/only if there would be more money in it. Cheaper oil makes that point further away... (nevermind that we use the thing...everywhere; so it would be a good idea to preserve as much as we can isntead of simply burning it right now...)

[Dr Mordrid]

That may have been the thought train in the past, but now I think that people finally "get" that oil is a national security issue and this will cause the transition we should have made after the first oil shocks, and most certainly after the Gulf War.

[Brian Ellis]

I guess there is a parallel with the water situation on this island. On an average, the rainfall on this island is ~450 mm ±300 mm. This should be largely more than sufficient, with correct resource management, to supply everyone, even after three or four winters of low rainfall. Last autumn, it was clear that the supplies were dwindling but the Papadopoulos government in power cynically took no measures against the possibility of another poor rain winter. Why? Because rationing or even hosepipe restrictions would have been unpopular and there were Presidential elections coming up in February. By the end of December, it was clear that the rain was not coming as was necessary, but still nothing was done, business as usual. By election time, still no rain (we got, on average about 150 mm over the whole rainy season, and still no restrictions. Papadopoulos lost the presidency, thank God!, to be replaced by the communist Christofias whose first two acts were a) to introduce water restrictions and b) start negotiations to reunify the island. As far as the water was concerned, too little but, by far, too late. Now we are in the same crisis with water as the US with oil, we'll pay what it takes to get some. Some parts of the country will run totally dry in a couple of weeks. Result: we are frantically boring holes, left, right and centre, to try and get a few more drops, while wastage continues (e.g., it is estimated that 10,000 t of water are lost/day due to leaks in an antiquated pipeline system, a problem known for decades). In the meanwhile we are paying through the nose for imported water, sitting in tankers offshore, with it impossible to offload the water. Thank God our water is supplied at fixed prices and not on a market supply/demand basis or we would be paying more than $4/gallon for it just now! I had the luxury of a 2-minute shower this morning and actually pressed the button on the toilet!

[Fat Tone]

It's really hard to sympathise with Americans complaining about the price of fuel. Here in the UK regular unleaded peaked at ~$2.60/l or $9.36/USG.

Things are relaxing now, mainly due to initiatives from some of the big supermarket chains, but we really were beginnning to feel the bite of fuel prices and the country appears to be nosediving in to a recession.

I don't know, but suspect US fuel bills are a smaller fraction of household expenditure (or at least could be if they drove more cars rather than trucks) and their individual wealth is less sensitive to fluctuations in fuel prices. Am I right?

[VJ]

Yep, I also am always stumped to see how low the US gas prices are...

In Belgium, an additional problem was the price of diesel: most people here drive diesel cars, but that price has risen much more than the fuel price; at one point they where almost equal! In itself, this isn't a big problem (diesel cars consume less), but there is an additional annual tax on diesel cars, causing there to be no benefit from driving a diesel.

Prices here have also relaxed somewhat, official maximum price is still around 1.55 €/l (=9.21 $/gallon), but you can find fuel for 1.45 €/l (still 8.61 euro/l). Premium is about 0.10 more expensive.



Jörg

[Nowhere]

Ahhh, yes, I forgot to bitch about prices here

So...average is around 4,80 PLN (95 octane gasoline; diesel is...sligthly more expensive than 95). Today that means 1,5€/$2,35 per liter. Which is close to what Fat Tone and VJ posted, however, when comparing for example...

GDP per capita (easiest data to find, will have to suffice...median income would be probably better):
US: ~$46 000
UK: ~$46 000
Belgium: ~$43 000
Poland: ~$11 000

Yeah...

PS. Doc, with rampant consumptionism around, are you sure people finally "got it"?...

[cjolley]

That may have been the thought train in the past, but now I think that people finally "get" that oil is a national security issue and this will cause the transition we should have made after the first oil shocks, and most certainly after the Gulf War.

I think you are dreaming.
The traffic on my drive from Dallas back to OKC yesterday consisted of, on average, black SUVs going 80mph in the 102f heat.
Also, an average of about 1.5 passengers per 9 seat vehicle.

People may be complaining about high gas prices here. But I definitely don't think they "get it" yet.

If gas went back to $2/gal the Volt project would go the way of GM's last electric car so fast it would make your head swim.

[Jammrock]

Okay my European friends, allow me to explain why us USA types are complaining.

First off, your gasoline has been very expensive (compared to ours) for a very long time. In the mid 90's when I was in Denmark gasoline was 8 dkr per liter (roughly) which worked out to about $4 USD per gallon. At the same time gas in the US was around $1 per gallon. From people I talked to that seemed to be fairly average in many European nations. So even if gas prices peaked recently at $8-$9 a gallon you have only seen a rough double of gas prices in a decade. In the same amount of time we had a quadrupling of gas prices, or a five times increase for diesel, which holds a larger overall economical impact in the US than it did in Europe.

Secondly, our public transportation in the USA...it..well...uh...unless you live in a REALLY BIG city, it doesn't exist. I'm talking New York, Chicago, D.C., LA, Dallas...and even then not all of those cities have anything that compares to the likes of even the average size cities in Europe. The US is car dependent and oil/gas driven. While in almost every settled place in Europe if you can't afford gas to commute you have cheap alternative transport options like the bus, or a safe bike path to the office, or the underground/subway, a train, or something. We don't.

And a lot of Americans commute 20-60 minutes ONE WAY to work each day, which never was a problem until the gas prices skyrocketed, so a very large portion of the working population does it. Some of that is economical though, as you have to make a lot of money to live inside a big city, much more than if you lived outside the city and wanted to put your kids into decent schools. So if you can't afford to drive at quadruple the gas price from 5 years ago then you are in trouble.

I am one of the lucky ones that work from home, so my commute is a 10 second walk to the office. Even so the higher gas prices hurt since we still have kids to ferry around and there is no other way to get them there.

[ND66]

.....
Secondly, our public transportation in the USA...it..well...uh...unless you live in a REALLY BIG city, it doesn't exist. I'm talking New York, Chicago, D.C., LA, Dallas...and even then not all of those cities have anything that compares to the likes of even the average size cities in Europe. The US is car dependent and oil/gas driven. While in almost every settled place in Europe if you can't afford gas to commute you have cheap alternative transport options like the bus, or a safe bike path to the office, or the underground/subway, a train, or something. We don't.

And a lot of Americans commute 20-60 minutes ONE WAY to work each day, which never was a problem until the gas prices skyrocketed, so a very large portion of the working population does it......

Not only that.

Look at this picture:





Our transportation infrastructure is based on those big rigs.

We don’t have Railroads infrastructure like Europe or Japan does. Gas is used everywhere, starting from getting to work to getting the food and products on the store shelf.

For example, if I want to go from Chicago to Florida, I only have two options: fly or drive. There is no train I could take there….. .

.

[cjolley]

For example, if I want to go from Chicago to Florida, I only have two options: fly or drive. There is no train I could take there….. .

What makes you think that?
the Capitol Limited (train 30) + the Silver Meteor (train 97) gets you there in 2 days for $216

For a sleeper the price is $757 though


PS Capitol Limited is Chicago-Wash DC. Silver Meteor is Wash DC to Orlando and other parts of Florida. I used Orlando to calculate the price.

[ND66]

What makes you think that?
the Capitol Limited (train 30) + the Silver Meteor (train 97) gets you there in 2 days for $216

For a sleeper the price is $757 though


PS Capitol Limited is Chicago-Wash DC. Silver Meteor is Wash DC to Orlando and other parts of Florida. I used Orlando to calculate the price.

That's right, 2 days to get there, and 2 back!!!! There goes my week of vacation......


Not to mention I could fly for cheaper than the $216 and be there in 2 hours, not days.


Tha'ts why train is NOT an option.

.

[Evildead666]

Petrol is high here too.
We are just taxed more by our governments, and have been for a lot longer than the US.

Nearly all freight is Road based here too.
If too much was done by railways, the truckers would strike and block the railway stations.

They've just introduced Baobab fruit from Africa in the UK.
I'm sure that will obviously be taking the long route via a boat, and not trucks ?

Public transport in France is great, if you live anywhere near it.
And if its going your way.
It would be longer for me to take the train to work than drive.
I would have to pay to park the car at the train station, where there are no parking spaces after 7am anyway...
Then the obligatory train strikes/dissapearances (trains are just cancelled for no reason)

Doing the 30km drive to the outskirts of Paris, the Periphérique, would take 25-30mins on a sunday.
Weekdays, it varies from 2 hours upwards. Mucho upwards.
Most people are alone in their cars.

If oil drops in price again, our politicians will do what they have always done since after the second world war....pass the buck to the next generation.
They mentioned in the 50's and 60's that Oil was going to be tight, and run out someday.
This was years before I was born.
I don't see us NOT relying totally on oil today ????
Our politicians have been shafting us for years, and covering up the bad sh*t.
We need politicians who were voted by the people, all the people, and for them to do what we want, not us accepting what the few at the top think is best for the rest of us.

We need to wipe the slate clean, and start again.
It will never happen though, so we are all fecked.

edit : In France, since I am not a french citizen, I am not allowed to vote in the presidential elections.
Sort of cuts out a lot of votes....
I am only allowed to vote in the local elections if the mayor allows it...

Imagine in England, only the people with English passports being allowed to vote ?
How much fuss would that kick up ?