Will we lose another shuttle?

[Dr Mordrid]

9 flights left before the shuttle is retired in 2010.

Quote from outgoing NASA administrator Mike Griffin last week when discussing proposals to extend shuttle flights until Orion is near ready in 2015:

We at NASA have recently updated our estimates of the cost to do it, and the bottom line is this: for $3 billion per year, we could continue to fly the Shuttle twice a year from 2011-15 for ISS crew transfer and cargo logistics, with about a one-in-eight chance of losing another crew on one of those ten flights.

[VJ]

1 in 8

They should have retired them a long time ago...


Jörg

[Technoid]

That price estimate is out of this world

[ND66]

I hope not...

[Dr Mordrid]

That price estimate is out of this world

That $3 billion is how much the shuttle system costs per year whether you fly or not - fixed cost of the architecture and maintaining it.

Now add the launch costs - another $300 - $500 million per flight (a new main tank from the Michoud, Louisiana NASA factory, reconditioning the orbiter & tiles, testing/refurbing the SRB's and SSME's (space shuttle main engines), fuel, training personnel & astronauts etc.) plus whatever hardware/supplies you orbit or take to the ISS.

Now hold onto your taxpayer wallet: NASA will end up spending about $30 billion developing the very troubled Ares I capsule launcher and Orion capsule unless someone (please God!!) gets smart and decides to use existing rockets (Atlas V, Delta IV) to launch Orion.

We'll need Orion and something like the Ares V heavy lifter either way.

[VJ]

I recall there once was a company that launched of a plane... And there have been many concepts for this:

http://www.astronautix.com/lvfam/airnched.htm

I don't see why this wouldn't be easier and cheaper (for small cargos). After all, the White Knight system also uses an air launch.


Jörg

[Dr Mordrid]

WhiteKnightTwo is already lining up launches for private, NASA and military customers besides its primary mission for Virgin Galactic.

Orbital Sciences has an air-launched rocket called the Pegasus (PDF), which was designed by Rutan's Scaled Composites, but it can only orbit 450kg.



One that is in development is from AirLaunch LLC called the QuickReach, which is competing for part of the USAF/DARPA FALCON (Force Application and Launch from Continental United States) program. FALCON's goal is to develop a military launcher that can launch 1,000 lbs to orbit with only 24 hours notice.

QuickReach can slide out of the rear of a C-17 cargo plane or be air-dropped (Scaled Composites Proteus shown at bottom), is stablized by a drogue 'chute then rotates until vertical when it fires.

[VJ]

Well, wouldn't this be a more elegant approach to the rocket booster methods...?


Jörg

[Dr Mordrid]

Elegant, yes. Practical for large payloads, no.

You'd need a mothership the size of a skyscraper to launch what the Falcon 9 could do. Delta IV Heavy, Falcon 9 Heavy or the proposed Ares V? Forget it.

[Wulfman]

is that one in eight for ten flights, or per flight?

mfg
wulfman

[Dr Mordrid]

LOC = loss of crew

One identical LOC number for any given mission

LOC for missions are independent from each other