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If you missed it, Dr. Sally Ride's presentation yesterday for the Augustine Commisison on future US space policy appeared to bode well for commercial access to low Earth orbit (LEO). The final report is due in a few weeks.
In general, her budget figures were depressing, but the more optimistic scenarios included canceling the controversial Ares I ASAP and relying on the commercial sector (read: SpaceX's Dragon and ULA launching Orion) for delivering crew to LEO. Her points included:
1. Add $200 million in FY2011 to incentivize current COTS (commercial) cargo demonstrations (SpaceX's Dragon and Orbital Sciences Cygnus - but only Dragon can be manned)
2. Adding $2.5 billion over 4 years beginning in FY2011 to help create commercial crew capabilities. (Dragon and ULA launching NASA's Orion - Dragon will be flying years before Orion....as early as around this New Years)
Both excellent ideas.
Going through news reports the big winners could be SpaceX, ULA and the military;
From Bloomberg Link....
From CNET
Wall Street Journal Link.....
On another front: the commercial Bigelow space station project is coming along. The first module, the 175 cu/m Sundancer, is under construction and its propulsion modules are either being delivered or under construction now. Due to go up on a SpaceX Falcon 9 in, coincidentally, 2011 followed soon by a SpaceX DragonLab. If the two are connected is up for conjecture, but DragonLab (a private orbital laboratory) is to be crew-capable.
After Sundancer a connecting hub, an orbital maneuvering/propulsion system and a series of 330 cu/m BA-330 modules are to follow. These launches have been contracted to ULA (Lockheed Martin-Boeing spinoff) using the Atlas V.
Bottom line is that by the time ISS is de-orbited in 2016 something even larger (internal volume wise) could be up and running - a privately built space station that will have cost a tiny fraction of what ISS did.
In general, her budget figures were depressing, but the more optimistic scenarios included canceling the controversial Ares I ASAP and relying on the commercial sector (read: SpaceX's Dragon and ULA launching Orion) for delivering crew to LEO. Her points included:
1. Add $200 million in FY2011 to incentivize current COTS (commercial) cargo demonstrations (SpaceX's Dragon and Orbital Sciences Cygnus - but only Dragon can be manned)
2. Adding $2.5 billion over 4 years beginning in FY2011 to help create commercial crew capabilities. (Dragon and ULA launching NASA's Orion - Dragon will be flying years before Orion....as early as around this New Years)
Both excellent ideas.
Going through news reports the big winners could be SpaceX, ULA and the military;
From Bloomberg Link....
“We’d like to get NASA out of the business†of flying people to lower Earth orbit, Ride said.
"In the unconstrained budget, Orion and Ares 1 arrive shortly after ISS is deorbited," Ride said. "And then you get human lunar return in 2021."
Assuming NASA is forced to live within the 2010 budget guidelines provided by the Obama administration, the Ares 5 heavy lift moon rocket would not be ready until the 2028 timeframe.
"You get, again, Orion and Ares 1 capability of crew to LEO (low-Earth orbit) a couple of years after ISS is gone, so there's nothing for Ares 1 and Orion to go to," Ride said. "You do get heavy lift (Ares 5) out in 2028, but you'll notice there are no lunar systems that have been developed, there was not enough money to even start the lunar systems.
"So you have a heavy lift vehicle in 2028 but absolutely nothing to put in it to send to the moon. So this says it pretty well. You cannot do this program on this budget. If you want to do something, you have to have the money to do it."
Assuming NASA is forced to live within the 2010 budget guidelines provided by the Obama administration, the Ares 5 heavy lift moon rocket would not be ready until the 2028 timeframe.
"You get, again, Orion and Ares 1 capability of crew to LEO (low-Earth orbit) a couple of years after ISS is gone, so there's nothing for Ares 1 and Orion to go to," Ride said. "You do get heavy lift (Ares 5) out in 2028, but you'll notice there are no lunar systems that have been developed, there was not enough money to even start the lunar systems.
"So you have a heavy lift vehicle in 2028 but absolutely nothing to put in it to send to the moon. So this says it pretty well. You cannot do this program on this budget. If you want to do something, you have to have the money to do it."
Another winner could turn out to be the Pentagon, if the White House opts to use billions of dollars in NASA funds to enhance and upgrade the Air Force's existing Delta IV and Atlas V rockets to carry astronauts. The rockets are operated by a joint venture made up of Boeing and Lockheed, and that organization has been pushing hard for such an option.
The Air Force was lukewarm about the concept until the last few months, when Air Force Space Command embraced it, partly as a way to keep a lid on military launch budgets. "As long as (Pentagon officials) get to run the program . . . with other people's money, that's a good thing" for the military, suggested Jeff Greason, a member of the study group and president of startup Xcor Aerospace Inc.
The Air Force was lukewarm about the concept until the last few months, when Air Force Space Command embraced it, partly as a way to keep a lid on military launch budgets. "As long as (Pentagon officials) get to run the program . . . with other people's money, that's a good thing" for the military, suggested Jeff Greason, a member of the study group and president of startup Xcor Aerospace Inc.
After Sundancer a connecting hub, an orbital maneuvering/propulsion system and a series of 330 cu/m BA-330 modules are to follow. These launches have been contracted to ULA (Lockheed Martin-Boeing spinoff) using the Atlas V.
Bottom line is that by the time ISS is de-orbited in 2016 something even larger (internal volume wise) could be up and running - a privately built space station that will have cost a tiny fraction of what ISS did.