Looks like the White House is leaning towards the Augustine Commissions Option #7 , also known as "The Deep Space Option", with a few tweaks.
If this is true than there will be a jailbreak from low Earth orbit and the NewSpace companies will be leading the charge.
Launchers cut: Ares I (Orion's crew launcher) and Ares V HLV (HLV = heavy lift vehicle) - both way too expensive and in the case of Ares I possibly dangerous to its own crews.
Shuttle cut: flights end in 2011 (perhaps 1 extra flight)
Low Earth Orbit crew: $2.5 billion for commercial crew (SpaceX's Dragon, Bigelow's Orion Lite, SpaceDev's DreamChaser spaceplane etc.)
ISS end of mission: extension to 2020 or beyond with a possible commercial takeover of ISS operations
New destination: Deep Space. Under consideration are orbital survey missions to Mercury and Venus and possible landings on near Earth asteroids and Mars' moon Phobos.
If they're serious about these long missions they're going to need habitats and a deep space drive. Bigelow's expandable habitats and Ad Astra's VASIMR plasma drive are naturals. They'll have to get serious about nuclear reactors for spacecraft too, though solar will be OK for powering VASIMR in the inner solar system.
Orion lunar spaceship: expensive and may be axed in favor of a less costly commercial deep space vehicle. Perhaps a combo of a less expensive and lighter crew-return-only capsule, a Bigelow habitat and a VASIMR drive section with connecting bits.
New HLV launcher: commercial - possibly the Atlas V Phase 2. Phase 2 would widen the Atlas V core from 3.8 to 5 meters using 1 or 2 RD-180 engines/core. The Heavy version would use 3 of them side by side in the first stage like the Delta IV Heavy. Centaur 2nd stage with its diameter increased from 3 to 5 meters and 2 or 4 engines. Can loft 75 mT in its top configuration. Phase 3 would take that to 100 mT by using 5 cores (!!)
If this is true than there will be a jailbreak from low Earth orbit and the NewSpace companies will be leading the charge.
Launchers cut: Ares I (Orion's crew launcher) and Ares V HLV (HLV = heavy lift vehicle) - both way too expensive and in the case of Ares I possibly dangerous to its own crews.
Shuttle cut: flights end in 2011 (perhaps 1 extra flight)
Low Earth Orbit crew: $2.5 billion for commercial crew (SpaceX's Dragon, Bigelow's Orion Lite, SpaceDev's DreamChaser spaceplane etc.)
ISS end of mission: extension to 2020 or beyond with a possible commercial takeover of ISS operations
New destination: Deep Space. Under consideration are orbital survey missions to Mercury and Venus and possible landings on near Earth asteroids and Mars' moon Phobos.
If they're serious about these long missions they're going to need habitats and a deep space drive. Bigelow's expandable habitats and Ad Astra's VASIMR plasma drive are naturals. They'll have to get serious about nuclear reactors for spacecraft too, though solar will be OK for powering VASIMR in the inner solar system.
Orion lunar spaceship: expensive and may be axed in favor of a less costly commercial deep space vehicle. Perhaps a combo of a less expensive and lighter crew-return-only capsule, a Bigelow habitat and a VASIMR drive section with connecting bits.
New HLV launcher: commercial - possibly the Atlas V Phase 2. Phase 2 would widen the Atlas V core from 3.8 to 5 meters using 1 or 2 RD-180 engines/core. The Heavy version would use 3 of them side by side in the first stage like the Delta IV Heavy. Centaur 2nd stage with its diameter increased from 3 to 5 meters and 2 or 4 engines. Can loft 75 mT in its top configuration. Phase 3 would take that to 100 mT by using 5 cores (!!)
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