Crewed Dragon est. timetable

[Dr Mordrid]

With SpaceX's cargo Dragon getting close to its first COTS test flight the estimated timetable for a crew version has been a hot question.

Dragon was designed for both cargo and crew, but key elements remain to be finished: the combination launch escape/ground landing engines, crew seating, the last bits of the life support system etc.

Finally, we get this from Jeff Foust's twitter (publisher of The Space Review) -

Ken Bowersox = VP of Astronaut Safety and Mission Assurance at SpaceX

Ken Bowersox, SpaceX: expect to start active design work on crewed Dragon next year, around time cargo Dragon 1st docks with ISS. #ispcs

That would be either the COTS-2 or COTS-3 flight. COTS-2 is estimated for Q2 and COTS-3 Q3, but the ISS docking could happen during either - depending on how well COTS-2 goes the missions could be combined on the fly.

[Dr Mordrid]

Well, that ISS docking by Dragon may just happen during COTS-2 - according th the NASA mission status page COTS-3 has been deleted from the schedule.

Mission Information

Full Name: SpaceX Commercial Orbital Transportation Services Demonstration
Customer: NASA ESMD
Life Cycle Phase: Deleted
Support Category: SCaN Support
Lead Center: JSC
Mission Services: Not Available
No. of Spacecraft: 1
No. Transmitting: 1
Orbit Regime: Earth: LEO (ISS rendezvous and berthing)
Launch Date: 2011
First Funded Through: Not Available
Documented Mission End: Not Available
Potential Mission End: Not Available
Probable Mission End: Not Available
Mission Information
Full Name: SpaceX Commercial Orbital Transportation Services Demonstration
Customer: NASA ESMD
Life Cycle Phase: Deleted
Support Category: SCaN Support
Lead Center: JSC
Mission Services: Not Available
No. of Spacecraft: 1
No. Transmitting: 1
Orbit Regime: Earth: LEO (ISS rendezvous and berthing)
Launch Date: 2011
First Funded Through: Not Available
Documented Mission End: Not Available
Potential Mission End: Not Available
Probable Mission End: Not Available

[Dr Mordrid]

SpaceX looks to be getting the most out of their CCDev2 money (SFN CCDev2 article)

The Dragon's side-mount launch abort system will be designed and built to the point of a full-duration engine firing on the ground by next May..

Which would mean they have to design, go through PDR, evaluate, fix, go through CDR, build and test by May, 2012. 'Ya gotta admit - these guys have big, round, brass ones - the timetable almost makes me think they've been working on this long before the NASA funding announcement.

The propulsive launch escape/landing system would also allow it to land on other bodies than Earth; the Moon, Mars, etc. (per this weeks Wall Street Journal interview.)

Animation of how it'll work -

YouTube video...

[KRSESQ]

My guess is that many of these guys have been working on something like this since third grade!

[Dr Mordrid]

I'd guess the same. Fact is that SpaceX is now the most desired job by new Aerospace & Propulsion engineers, and a lot of old hands.

Last year 6 of the top 10 from the U of M program ended up there, and they cull the chaff fast too - keeping only the most innovative. Working there must be a total scream. Not much sleep, but still....

The Prop guys are just finishing up the Merlin 1D, a very high powered but simpler variant, and they designed it for mass production using automotive techniques: 700-800 engines a year, on one line. Blasphemy!