Falcon 9 COTS-2 (? 2 & 3)

[Dr Mordrid]

It's becoming very likely that if all the COTS-2 goals are met NASA will decide to blend C2 and C3, in which case Dragon would dock at the ISS. Low priority cargo will be on board in case that happens.

Orbital Sciences, the other COTS contractor, won't fly their Cygnus cargo-only spacecrafts first test mission until at least late 2012.

July 15, 2011

Falcon 9 - C2

Launch window: TBD

Launch site: SLC-40, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida

The SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch the second Dragon spacecraft, called Dragon C2. The mission will demonstrate proximity operations during an approach within 6 miles of the International Space Station in a test flight named COTS 2. The company is building the Dragon to fly on resupply missions to the orbiting lab.

[MultimediaMan]

Very likely...

The test of the Falcon 9 was a complete success: All of their mission goals were met and all of their stretch goals were exceeded.

There are probably more than a few managers at other space-related companies wondering at just how far ahead of schedule Elon and Crew really are. I suspect they already have a complete manned Dragon capsule in ground testing.

SpaceX isn't doing this for some measly contract; they want to become the premier provider for Orbital Transport. They are going for Energia, ESA, ISRO, JAXA and NASA's ass.

[Dr Mordrid]

And don't forget that after deploying Dragon the F9's 2nd stage re-started and placed 8 micro-sateites in orbit, 1 for the US Army and 4 for the intelligence community, before placing itself into a 7,600 mile parking orbit. The rest were civilian units. I think this would require the extended length trunk (unpressurized cargo module) if done during an ISS re-supply mission, something that's already in their catalog.

I think they have a crew Dragon life support system, cabin controls & seating in testing - that's low hanging fruit the way it's been designed - but the launch escape/landing engines and landing gear are probably still in the lab. That said, they have a helluva head start.

BTW: SpaceX is rebuilding Space Launch Complex 4 East @ Vandenberg AFB for launches of Falcon 9 & Falcon 9 Heavy. This was another Titan IV pad like SLC-40 at KSC. This will give them extra access to polar orbits beyond their Reagan Test Site Kwajalein facility in the Marshall Islands. There is also talk of another pad at the NASA Goddard Flight Facility @ Wallops Island, VA.

It really is sad, then you see the total failure of Russia's Proton-M launch on Dec 5th due to a fueling error (Energia & Rokosmos had VP's fired and the President of Rokosmos was repremanded), the explosion of ISRO's recent launch and ESA's total loss of cost control and it creates a huge opening for the likes of SpaceX.

What's interesting are comments coming from aerospace engineers, NASA and recently former NASA engineers. I'll post a couple quotes to give you the gist - and it ain't pretty, especially in light of Discovery being delayed again (more fuel tank cracks!) and news that they're still spending $500M on Ares 1 even though its been canceled (?!!?) -

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Several posters imply that SpaceX cheated by using technology previously developed or demonstrated by NASA. If so, notice that it took a private company to make use of it; NASA has been unable to cost-effectively leverage or re-use that very same technology. The difference in costs and results is $0.8 billion for a successful demonstration of Falcon/Dragon versus $10 billion for Ares/Orion with nothing sent to orbit.

Clearly a private company is better at applying existing technology to building space transportation systems than is NASA. NASA should instead undertake basic research and help private industry commercialize space technology, as its predecessor NACA did with aircraft and airlines.
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NASA provides the technological library that other organizations can mine; Sadly, a lot of the brains that created this pool of knowledge are no longer available to place knowledge into context.
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So, to my eye, as much as SpaceX and others can mine the data that NASA has collected, there's a lot of decay they have to cope with, as well.
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FORMAT C:

Seriously, the entire culture and system that is NASA is shot. It really is. NASA is looking to expand when it should be looking to shrink itself. But like any good government agency, it looks to grow itself; possibly in Denver.
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We don't need six research centers, six test facilities, and six construction and launch facilities. This is the old model which does not work.

However, we will not see a true fix of NASA anytime soon. So we get a 500 Million dollar rocket to nowhere.
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And so on.

[Dr Mordrid]

Orlando Sentinel....

NASA faces a competitor in SpaceX

Test launch suggests the private company could do more at a fraction of the cost.

By Robert Block
The Orlando Sentinel

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. Early this month, a private company called SpaceX launched an unmanned version of its Dragon capsule into orbit, took it for a few spins around Earth, and then brought it home with a splashdown in the Pacific Ocean. The total cost - including design, manufacture, testing and launch of the company's Falcon 9 rocket and the capsule - was roughly $800 million.

In the world of government spaceflight, that's almost a rounding error. The ability of SpaceX to do so much with so little money is raising some serious questions about NASA.

The agency that once stood for American technical wizardry is seriously starting to lose its luster. Already Brevard County high school students are talking in bowling alleys over orders of cheese fries about wanting to go work for SpaceX, not the agency that 40 years ago put Americans on the moon.
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[Dr Mordrid]

A successful 10 second test fire of the COTS-2/(possible 3) Falcon 9s Merlin-1C engines was performed today, with a 90 second test within a few days. As usual, McGregor Texas residents got advance warning lest area babies get bounced out of cribs & poorly placed china get rattled into oblivion;

Wonder what it'll be like when Merlin 2 tests start? That pup will be bigger than the Saturn V's F-1 engines.

[Dr Mordrid]

Interesting Tweet from Soichi Noguchi - JAXA (Japan Space Agency) astronaut

March 3rd -
Soichi too! RT @Astro_Soichi: SpaceX tweeps Will be there tomorrow!!! // getting Dragon ready to go to the Space Station

Sounds like the blended COTS-2/3 mission is game on

[Dr Mordrid]

KCEN News in Waco, Texas just tweeted;

'Space X' in McGregor might run 90 second rocket test today- no earlier than 6:00pm. (Texas time)

A full power test of the Falcon 9/Dragon C2 first stage engines - roughly equal to a Saturn I booster but able to orbit a 10% larger payload to low Earth orbit.

Tie the babies down in their cribs & put away the dishes

[Dr Mordrid]

It's definitely looking like a blended COTS-2/COTS-3 mission. Noises are that the next flight, previously COTS-2, will be delayed from July to October +/-. The delay is so NASA can reset, generate some low priority cargo and train the ISS crew for the new mission. This because COTS-3 was to be in Q4 and with a different crew.

Also; the latest SpaceX brochure shows Falcon 9 getting the Falcon Heavy's core (comes with the much more powerful Merlin 1D) and an increase to Low Earth Orbit from 10.4 mT to 16 mT.

Guess that's why F9's now in the running to launch Boeing's 13.5 mT CST-100 spaceship, in spite of Boeing making the Delta IV (more expensive.)

[Dr Mordrid]

There was a 90 second (1/2 mission length) Falcon 9 test fire at SpaceX's McGregor, Texas test facility. The following is from the local KWTX-TV stations comments thread -

Posted by: **** Location: Texas on Apr 20, 2011

We live 30 miles away and saw it out the window. Thought it was a nuke! Then a minute later felt the rumble and heard the roar. Good grief! How do those that live closer stand it.

'nuff said

[Dr Mordrid]

Falcon 9 COTS-2/3 has arrived at KSC's Launch Complex 40. Nice pic of her with the engine covers off -