Electric cars not accessible 'in next five years'

[Kruzin]

Doc, you seem to be oblivious to the fact that you are near Detroit, and that's where the manufacturers are, where they make alternate options readily available.

Where I live and travel (between Casper, Wyoming and Denver, Colorado) (IE, the REAL world), there is NOTHING available publicly for charging stations. In the last 3 years, we have sold a grand total of 10 hybrid vehicles at my dealership.

Most of us don't live near the center of alternate fuel options, and are years (if not decades) away from these being a viable option...

Hell, there is nowhere within 200 miles of where I live that I can even buy E85 fuel for my 'flex-fuel' Taurus....charging stations are a pipe dream out here in the real world.

Learn to understand what goes on out here in the real world, more than a couple hundred miles from Detroit. I bet you a hundred bux we don't sell more than 25 'Volt' based vehicles in the next 5 years here at my dealership...

[Dr Mordrid]

I fully understand that in remote areas you don't have the resources that are around metropolitan areas, I grew up in the countryside myself. In fact, we didn't have a telephone or an indoor toilet until I was in Jr. High School. Gas & fuel heat was by way of 250-500 gallon tanks next to the house.

What you need to understand is that things like smart grid, solar banking and such are going to be mandated by the feds, regardless of the party in control. In fact, the Federal Smart Grid Task Force was set up under Title 13 of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 and many states, not all large ones, are getting ahead of the curve.

We got them first, as did other metropolitan areas, but like electrification of rural areas in the 40's, freeways in the 50's and broadband in the last decade, this train has left the station and is headed your way. Cheyenne Light & Powder River Energy got their initial federal funds in 2009 - targeted at installing their first round of smart meter hardware in substations and residences.

[Brian Ellis]

The problem is not just the parochial view of the USA. The biggest car markets at this time are China and India, either of which is outstripping the USA in sales. We hear a lot of luxury cars in these countries, but these represent less than 10% of sales. The great majority of the cars sold are small models, stripped down to a minimal price. Until (if?) EVs or hybrids penetrate these markets, critical mass will never be reached on a global scale. This will never happen for as long as reliable electric energy is not universally available 24/7 and forget your solar panels there for power applications. Then you will have other developing nations coming along, like Indonesia and, dare I say it?, Russia and its ex-Soviet satellites.

Renault and Citroen have these markets in mind with, e.g. Zoe, but this won't even be ready for production before 2015 and possibly affordable in the West by 2020. Forget your sacred Volt: in 5-10 years time, I predict that it will go out of production as uncompetitive with home-grown Chinese and Indian cars. These will take over the global market of EVs and HEVs, some made by the French companies in China (the factories are already being built with bilateral accords). I predict a Zoe will sell in China for about $8,000. Consider also why China is buying nuclear power stations at wholesale prices. It is to satisfy future demand. Is the West? No! It will only significantly expand its capacity after the demand exists, when it will be too late. Bonjour, les blackouts! Au revoir, les EVs.

In summary: the world is bigger outside the USA (and Europe) than in it.

[Dr Mordrid]

GM was the largest overseas automaker in China for 2010; 2.35 million vehicles - up 29% over 2009 and about 1/7 of all sales. In 2011 the analysts expect that to go up at least another 15%.

They are building not only a Volt/Voltec factory & battery plant but also facilities for building conventional hybrids and pure EV's in China. Most will produce China's favorite brand: Buick. This in synch with China's plan to electrify auto transportation.

Ford has similar plans, but not at GM's scale - the Chinese really love their Buicks. This goes back to before WW-II when 20% of all cars in China were Buicks.

[Kruzin]

Denver is hardly a 'remote area'. It's population numbers in the millions.
Yet there is no sign of charging stations, and barely signs of alternative fuels available.

[Dr Mordrid]

Last alt.fuel listing has Denver with 18 biodiesel stations. Colorado as a whole has about 60 E85 stations, several each in Denver and in Colorado Springs. Charging stations will start with the Denver airport, Best Buy and several hotel chains, then go to municipal locations and spread from there. Ford, GM, Nissan etc are helping fund them with the participation of their commercial & govt partners.

[Kruzin]

Last alt.fuel listing has Denver with 18 biodiesel stations. Colorado as a whole has about 60 E85 stations, several each in Denver and in Colorado Springs. Charging stations will start with the Denver airport, Best Buy and several hotel chains, then go to municipal locations and spread from there. Ford, GM, Nissan etc are helping fund them with the participation of their commercial & govt partners.

The Denver/metro area is near 3 million in population.
Hardly a 'remote area'
Colorado Springs doesn't count, it's a hundred miles away.
There are hundreds if not thousands of gas stations.
<60 E85/18 bioD in the whole metro area is next to nothing.
And ZERO charging stations.
I won't even bring Wyoming into the debate, other than to say there is NOTHING in this state for charging/alternate fuels (cept maybe a few LPG trucks).

Don't pretend this is going to be a viable option anytime in the immediate future...as I said, it will be years before what you see in the Detroit/metro area is common in the rest of the country...It will happen, but it's not as close as you like to beleive...

[Rags]

I would be surprised if we sold ANY volt based products.

The Volt is being sold in limited market areas, and allocation is extremely tight.

Paying 40 grand for a vehicle that only makes sense for commuting to work is a hard sell anyhow...we would have to plug in at work and keep it for several decades to even come close to breaking even....even at 4 bucks a gallon for fuel.

Rags

[Kruzin]

I would be surprised if we sold ANY volt based products.

The Volt is being sold in limited market areas, and allocation is extremely tight.

Paying 40 grand for a vehicle that only makes sense for commuting to work is a hard sell anyhow...we would have to plug in at work and keep it for several decades to even come close to breaking even....even at 4 bucks a gallon for fuel.

Rags

No, we won't sell any Volt based vehicles this year....Buick/GMC/Caddy won't see any Volt based models till 2012/13 at the earliest....and even then, you're right, we won't sell any...

And I bet White's (mine and Rags local chevy dealer) doesn't even get allocated any Volts....and if they do get 1 or 2, they're gonna be a hard sell...


(To Rags: ) Sig Heil Greiner!

[Kruzin]

P.S.
Mr. Goodwrench is dead. After this month, no GM dealer will use that moniker any more....

And watch monday morn for the unveiling of Buick's new compact ride....

[UtwigMU]

Despite charging stations springing up experimentally around here I also don't see electric cars taking off majorly in next 5 years. And electric cars won't become cheaper than regular cars in the near future.

What I foresee is that due to more expensive energy it will become more expensive to commute and transport stuff. This will lead to more telecommuting, more public transit, more jobs springing up in less concentrated areas and areas with long commutes to job centers becoming less viable.

[Brian Ellis]

The Volt is being sold in limited market areas, and allocation is extremely tight.

This is the whole point: the numbers in such limited areas will be so small that there won't be any economic justification to install street charging systems or to reinforce distribution systems in residential areas.

I have 3-phase off-peak heating, limited theoretically to 40 A/phase. I draw a maximum of 39.1 A (9 kW) on each of 2 of the phases and 41,3 A (9,5 kW) on the third in winter. To add just 1 kW load to the present load would cause the breaker to trip (it already does occasionally because of the 1.2 A (276 W nominal) overload on one phase in cold weather and if their volts are higher than the nominal 230 V; it is on the limit). To get an upgrade to the next level (80 A/phase) would entail running new wiring from the transformer to my house (~200 m) and probably a change of transformer, at my charge, plus a small monthly extra on the fixed charges (rental of meter, breaker etc.) - and rewiring part of the house. Do you really think that householders in similar positions will pay thousands extra for the privilege of charging their car, which already has a swingeing price? Or, for that matter, a PV system when the sun does not shine when the car is in the garage?

Yes, I would get a government subsidy, all of €1200, the same as I got for my hybrid, which would pay for what? Maybe the extra off peak wiring in the house.

[Dr Mordrid]

What I foresee is that due to more expensive energy it will become more expensive to commute and transport stuff....more public transit, more jobs springing up in less concentrated areas and areas with long commutes to job centers becoming less viable.

Mass transit works in small geographic areas with high population densities, like Europe where tracks also abound. Problem: other than our NorthEastern Corridore and places like LA/SF the US is so widely spread out the necessary infrastructure wouldn't work financially - or even physically in many cases. The few inter-city rail lines we have now, especially the ones between western US communities, are going broke.

Ex: the feds have been trying to come up with a workable plan for SE Michigan and the route to Chicago for 50 years, but can't make it work beyond a single passenger rail line from Detroit through Ann Arbor to Chicago with just a few cars. That train takes about 2 seconds to go through a crossing. Twice a day. Half empty.

Recent plans for a high speed rail to Chicago are also going nowhere, even with federal funding. It's becoming known as the "Train To Nowhere," so named after the boondoggle bridge in Alaska a few years ago.

[dZeus]

I think I agree with the others that sharing is rarely very practical. I was watching a documentary where a guy in Teheran wanted to get across the town for a gig. Apparently, nearly every private car is also a taxi. It took him five cars to get anywhere near where he wanted to be, within easy walking distance.

I have come across one case where this was semi-practical. At the time, I was living in the outskirts of Newcastle upon Tyne but working in the mining village of Bedlington (whether dogs come from!). I had three other colleagues in the same position and, on an average, at least three of us shared cars four days per week. Nevertheless, he who did not want to share the following day had to announce that he was opting out. In those days, we did not have cellphones or even landlines in some cases, so the system fell through in cases of illness or other urgencies. If a person was not at the designated pickup point at the right time, then tough cheese. The crunch came when somebody who was the driver of that day could not get his car started. As it happened, it was the morning that the prospective buyer of the company was visiting, to find that four senior research individuals had to take the bus and arrive one hour late! All hell was let loose!

Ah of course it will never be as practical as having and driving your own car. Of course, the question is figuring out at what cost people are willing to let go of the privilege to use the car for themselves. People already use public transport, which theoretically is a lot less practical than the system I'm proposing. Umfriend seems to have missread my post, as I'm not proposing to change people; the point is I think they will change themselves when petrol reaches a certain point.

Further more, I think most limitations you mention like having to annul your trip, find another one to another place, etc. can be worked around in the end with a combination of two different mechanism:
- making intelligent use of an online information system that keeps track of who goes where, combined with a soon-in-future situation where everyone can access this system from anywhere with their internet-enabled cellphone
- getting a critical mass of people to start using it; once you pass a certain point in amount of people using it, there will always be people going to or very near your destination in the time-frame you are looking at

Further more, this stuff was common practice in some countries in the past with the oil boycot by the arab states. Now with the prevalence of cellphones and internet it should be possible to make it a load more practical in use. You could even turn it into a credit-based system where people who drive their cars for others can reduce their costs for their own trip to near 0, or even make money out of it (if you fill your car with, say, 3 others). For the passengers it'll still be cheaper than driving their own car (and potentially even owning one).

Right now this may seem like complete fiction, but I'm quite convinced that peak cheap oil will cause some severe changes in mentality over the next decades.

[Brian Ellis]

There are parts of Europe as spread out as Alaska, yet they have viable (or nearly so) rail services. There are other parts of Europe that have a high population density but no rail service (such as this island). Until France developed the TGV, rail travel was largely ignored. Now they have a viable train system. I used to live near Lausanne but had to go to Paris (~500 km) perhaps 2 x/year. This entailed 65 km motoring to Geneva airport, arriving there 1 h before departure, sitting in the plane with my knees up to my chin and being served a stale sandwich with a plastic cup of unmentionable coffee, arriving at Orly and taking the regional train into Paris. Total, 4-4½ hours if the plane left on time. Alternatives: a) Intercity train 7 hours, cheap or b) go by car, 6 hours, expensive. Then came the TGV from Lausanne, half the price of plane, comfortable seat, able to work and served a gourmet 4 course meal at your seat, total time 4 hours. This was a no-brainer. OK, the meal became separate and poorer in quality in time, but the time is now 3 h 20 min. The last time I did the trip, I got an old age pensioner's rebate and it cost me the princely sum of €95 one way, First Class, snack meal (salad, cold meats, cheeses, bread roll, mineral water, acceptable coffee) included. The seats on this TGV are fully booked 2-4 weeks in advance and there is rarely a chance of getting on the train without an advance reservation.

I have never understood why similar lines haven't been built Boston-NYC, NYC-Washington DC, NYC-Chicago, DC-Atlanta. Atlanta-Miami, Vancouver-Seattle, Seattle-Portland and Portland-SF. All of these would be faster and cheaper than aircraft and less prone to weather delays. Perhaps a chicken and egg situation? No passengers>no train>no passengers. Or is it because of the reputation of Amtrak?