Rocket development costs

[Dr Mordrid]

This should prove illustrative as to how much of a cost difference there is between private and government development projects.

The final figures are in for the development of SpaceX's Falcon 9 launcher. These costs include the development of the Merlin 1 engine series, including the MVAC vacuum version, the Draco thrusters, the Falcon 1 testbed, 2 launch pads including infrastructure (Marshall Islands & KSC), 2 launch control facilities, Falcon 9 itself, test launches etc. The works.

There are 3 figures;

NASA: what it would cost using NASA culture & methods
NAFCOM: NASA-Air Force COst Model - used for Atlas V & Delta IV
SpaceX: their actual costs as calculated by the auditors

Here's what they came up with -

NASA: $3.977 billion
NAFCOM: $1.695 billion
SpaceX: $0.453 billion

Kinda says it all.

As for their vertical integration, making most things themselves, SpaceX estimates that for every $1 spent rolling their own hardware it would cost from $3 to $5 to outsource it.

[cjolley]

Odd, that makes it sound like NASA could do just about as well if they could make their own hardware instead of contracting it out.
Something they would never be allowed to do.

[Jammrock]

Odd, that makes it sound like NASA could do just about as well if they could make their own hardware instead of contracting it out.
Something they would never be allowed to do.

That would never happen because Boeing and Lockheed Martin own the people who control NASA's budget and policies.

[Dr Mordrid]

NASA hasn't had the skillsets to roll their own for decades, and as Jammrock says OldSpace is doing their large program design work via the Senate committees overseeing NASA, particularly Lockheed Martin, Rocketdyne and ATK (maker of the SRBs). That's how we got SLS & Orion, and it's a totally bipartisan pork-driven activity.

Boeing, Northrop Grumman, Sierra Nevada, Orbital Sciences, Wylie Labs, SwRI, and a few other OldSpace outfits are, to their credit, embracing the NewSpace paradigm. Boeing is working with Bigelow Aerospace on the CST-100; Northrop Grumman and Sierra Nevada with Virgin Galactic on the Dream Chaser; and several OldSpace systems suppliers are developing life support, spacesuits, avionics, thrusters, parachutes etc. for all of them including SpaceX

The only hope for sanity is that SLS & Orion may not survive the current budget realities, leaving no other option but truly competitive programs like COTS and CCDev but for launchers, habs, depots etc. The operational savings over SLS/Orion alone would pay for an entire Mars architecture using NewSpace techs already deep into development, getting ready to fly or actually flying - nothing truly long-pole.