US prepping military option?

[Dr Mordrid]

Sure sounds like it.

1) The US has ordered up a new bunker buster bomb - larger than the 30,000 lb (16,636 kg) Massive Ordinance Penetrator. The MOP can penetrate ~200 feet of reinforced concrete or ~120 feet of rock, so this new bomb must be s real monster;

2) The US Military Sealift Command is going to retrofit the USS Ponce, a 570 foot (174 meter) amphibious transport docking ship, on a rush-order for completion this summer. They made a point to announce it is to be stationed in the Middle East.

USS Ponce was to be decommissioned, but not now. Her new configuration is a floating mothership & operations base for large numbers of SEALs. The USS Ponce can also launch Sea Knight helicopters and high speed boats, landing craft, hovercraft etc. It also bristles with defensive weaponry including Phalanx anti-missile cannons.

MOP


USS Ponce

[MultimediaMan]

The Ponce is interesting.... more interesting is where the USS Jimmy Carter is right now...

[Dr Mordrid]

They have a Seawolf heading to the Gulf?

Interesting....

[MultimediaMan]

Not just any Seawolf... the specops fitted one.

[Dr Mordrid]

Ahhhhh.....I forgot the 23 boat has that extra 100 foot plug in her!

The plot thickens....

[Jammrock]

I don't think fighting at the Straight of Hormuz will be easy, no matter what the US puts there. The Iranian side has a natrual V shape that gives them two good land-based firing positions. That means the US has to put a hell of a lot of ordinance in the area to not be surrounded by flanking land-based fire. That or you have to take the coast. Hopefully this is just more ranting and posturing by Iran and it won'r lead to blows.

I did see a new journal special on what Iranians think about it, who live on the straight. One guys said something like, "of course I'm scared. My brother-in-law saw the fifth fleet out there and said it was like a floating city it was so big."

[UtwigMU]

Do you guys in the know have any timeline for this? This year, next year?

There has been a fleet parked outside Iranian coast for a few years now.

What's the objective? Taking out nukes, regime change?

[Dr Mordrid]

Immdiate: keeping the international waters open. Iran is signatory to at least 2 treaties that declare the gulf and strait international waters, so closing them would be considered an act of war.

Later: the nukes, and odds are if they are taken out they'll go after the Iranian Air Force & Navy, Revolutionary Guard and Quds Force bases first. That would open up unrestricted access to the nuclear facilities and mute their response.

Odds are we have a bunch of A-10 Warthogs prepositioned in Northern Saudi Arabia just for the purpose of helping the fleet clear the waterways and take out their Navy and Southern bases. That big machine cannon in its nose plus its missiles make it a devastating weapon for the job.

Make no mistake about it; we have major ground based air assets prepositioned all over Northern Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE. The Iranian Air Force & Navy wouldn't know what hit them.

[MultimediaMan]

What doc said... if Iran decides to try and close the Straight with Subs (and this is their most "survivable" option to use), it might take a while to root out all of their submarines... it might take about three weeks depending on how much intel we have. After that, there will be several beautiful new (Russian-Made and US-placed) artifical mini-reefs.

If they try with Airpower...they might last a whole day... We have enough combat power with two Aircraft Carriers to take most of the Gulf; again it depends: The Iranians do not have a creditable AWACs presence. If they go for hit an runs, they might last as long as week. If they go all out, it will be lambs to the slaughter.

Ground-based attacks (missiles) are probably their thinking. There are a sodding lot of Tomahawks set aside for that; they have radar, but even Reapers would give them fits in daylight.

If I had to guess a timeline... either before the U.S. elections - The Iranians would rather see Obama re-elected. Or RIGHT after (like before inauguration).

[Dr Mordrid]

Did some research -

Iran has 3 Russian Kilo-class (2,300 ton) subs; 17 Ghadir-Class (120 ton) domestic mini-subs designed for the Gulf, and 1 Nahang-class (400 ton) domestic sub.

They're all diesel-electric, and while the Kilo has enough fuel for ~45+ days those Ghadir probably don't have enough for more than a few days. Also, as soon as they put up their snorkles to recharge the radar echoes & thermal plumes will give them away. Then they have to contend with our attack subs targeting their soundprints.

[cjolley]

...
If I had to guess a timeline... either before the U.S. elections - The Iranians would rather see Obama re-elected. Or RIGHT after (like before inauguration).

So they would try to block the Straights and lose a huge amount of their military (equipment and personnel) because they think it would help Obama's re-election?
That makes no sense at all.

[Umfriend]

Course it does. Dying to get a muslim elected as US Prez again makes you a martyr!

My guess is Iran will taunt but not actually undertake clear acts of war. I think it is in their interest NOT to have Obama re-elected. Far too reasonable. Romney/Newt/Santorum are far more likely to attack without "legal" justification.

Their worst nightmare might be Ron Paul winning BTW.

[cjolley]

Yeah, they'll just do a lot of talking.
Look at all the empty threats right before we just ostentatiously sailed our carrier back into the gulf.

Course it does. Dying to get a muslim elected as US Prez again makes you a martyr!
...

That martyrdom might seem a little close to home considering how plain Obama has made it that he is willing to target leaders.