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Some Bond fans have way too much time

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  • Some Bond fans have way too much time

    James Bond must have had thousands of bullets aimed at him over the course of his movie career. He must be the most shot-at fictional film hero of all. Can anybody calculate the odds of him not having taken a fatal hit over the past five decades? Surely they are astronomical.

    • There is some ambiguity over how many gunshots have been fired at James Bond because, in many gunfights, it is not clear who the shots are aimed at. However, by my reckoning, in the 22 Bond films to date, there have been at least 4662 shots fired at our hero. A static well-aimed shot would almost certainly have proved lethal, but assuming all 4662 were "on the run", the probability of a single fatal shot is about 5 per cent. That is, the chance of a single shot missing is 0.95, and hence the probability of all shots missing is 0.954662 or 1.4 × 10-104, which is as close to zero as makes no difference.

    Apart from gunshots there have been 130 dastardly attempts to kill Bond. Factor that in, and you have a really small probability. For the record, Bond has also slain 198 villains, creating yet another bizarre improbability.


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  • #2
    Originally posted by Rakido View Post
    the probability of all shots missing is 0.954662 or 1.4 × 10-104, which is as close to zero as makes no difference.
    Unless your name is Bond, James Bond (or Rambo, who I think has had way more shots levelled at him. In case of Chuck Norris the probability of a bullet hittin of course is -1).
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    • #3
      Wasn't James bond killed in the beginning of You only live twice...?
      pixar
      Dream as if you'll live forever. Live as if you'll die tomorrow. (James Dean)

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      • #4
        The most improbable thing of all is Bond coming out on top using that Walther PPK. It shoots the .380 ACP / 9x17mm round, which is pretty much a pipsqueak. Over here the .380 is mainly used as a backup (my Ruger LCP) or "ladies gun."
        Dr. Mordrid
        ----------------------------
        An elephant is a mouse built to government specifications.

        I carry a gun because I can't throw a rock 1,250 fps

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Umfriend View Post
          Unless your name is Bond, James Bond (or Rambo, who I think has had way more shots levelled at him. In case of Chuck Norris the probability of a bullet hittin of course is -1).
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          • #6
            It's not the size of the weapon, it's how you use it lol
            Last edited by Elie; 9 May 2012, 19:13.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Dr Mordrid View Post
              The most improbable thing of all is Bond coming out on top using that Walther PPK. It shoots the .380 ACP / 9x17mm round, which is pretty much a pipsqueak. Over here the .380 is mainly used as a backup (my Ruger LCP) or "ladies gun."
              LOL, gun fights don't involve pulling your pistol out of your pants and whoever's is biggest wins.

              Remember, bond does not carry his gun for self defense.
              Lots of professional hit men use 22s, so I understand.
              Compared to that his PPK is a canon!
              Chuck
              秋音的爸爸

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              • #8
                Just how many on-screen baddies has Bond actually killed with his Walther? I can only think of two off the top of my head. Of course, I haven't seen every James Bond movie!

                When you're as ace a crack-shot as James Bond, you don't need a hand-cannon (my guess is Bond could kill a baddie equally dead using a back-alley zip-gun).

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                • #9
                  Or even just a fountain pen.

                  Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.
                  Chuck
                  秋音的爸爸

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                  • #10
                    I once had a chance once to talk to a hitter when he was a patient / prisoner. Quite revealing - he was proud of his work & chatty. He used a .22 for a close range head or heart shots in a controlled situation. That little bullet goes in, bounces around inside the skull and raises hell. The main feature though is that in lighter loads it's easily silenced with a makeshift silencer. For uncontrolled situations they go 9mm or bigger.

                    A .380 can obviously be lethal, but not reliably so in an uncontrolled situation. Shot placement is not so easy then as stats show that in real gunfights only about 20-25% of shots fired make contact, so how much energy is delivered per impact becomes important. This gives the most physiological effect.

                    This brings in hydrostatic shock, which can induce remote damage far from the wound channel - often soft tissue damage to vital organs, or a concussion or cerebral bleed, from an otherwise non-lethal impact.

                    US and European studies show to accomplish it you need a round that can produce a shockwave intensity of >1000 psi, and a .380 can only muster about 500-600 psi tops. 9mm does up to about 1150, .357 SIG to 1,600, .40's up to 1,700+ and a .45 to 1,900+.
                    Dr. Mordrid
                    ----------------------------
                    An elephant is a mouse built to government specifications.

                    I carry a gun because I can't throw a rock 1,250 fps

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Dr Mordrid View Post
                      ...Shot placement is not so easy then as stats show that in real gunfights only about 20-25% of shots fired make contact
                      ...
                      Yes, but the distribution of that statistic in a Bond movie is Bond: 100%, Bad Guys: 0.1%
                      Chuck
                      秋音的爸爸

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by cjolley View Post
                        Yes, but the distribution of that statistic in a Bond movie is Bond: 100%, Bad Guys: 0.1%
                        True, Bone's shot placement is perfect even when shooting moving targets at 50 meters

                        After Fleming the Bond series has continued with improving weaponry. The first big change was Raymond Benson who upgraded Bond with a Walther P99 9mm in Tomorrow Never Dies, but Jeffery Deaver upgraded him to a Walther PPS .40 S&W in last years Carte Blanche. Much better
                        Dr. Mordrid
                        ----------------------------
                        An elephant is a mouse built to government specifications.

                        I carry a gun because I can't throw a rock 1,250 fps

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                        • #13
                          Bah, for Bond it is complete overkill.
                          So to speak...
                          Chuck
                          秋音的爸爸

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                          • #14
                            Ooooh I forgot about the S&W .44 revolver that Bond packed in Live And Let Die. However, he didn't use that one to kill the villain.

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                            • #15
                              Good Lord, even in a muscle suit, Weird Al is scrawny!

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