Exponential Economist Meets Finite Physicist

[UtwigMU]

http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist/

Very interesting read.

2 excerpts:

Right, if you plot the U.S. energy consumption in all forms from 1650 until now, you see a phenomenally faithful exponential at about 3% per year over that whole span. The situation for the whole world is similar. So how long do you think we might be able to continue this trend?

Before we tackle that, we’re too close to an astounding point for me to leave it unspoken. At that 2.3% growth rate, we would be using energy at a rate corresponding to the total solar input striking Earth in a little over 400 years. We would consume something comparable to the entire sun in 1400 years from now. By 2500 years, we would use energy at the rate of the entire Milky Way galaxy—100 billion stars! I think you can see the absurdity of continued energy growth. 2500 years is not that long, from a historical perspective. We know what we were doing 2500 years ago. I think I know what we’re not going to be doing 2500 years hence.

[Jammrock]

Time to find a sun to power our stuff

[Umfriend]

Time to find a sun to power our stuff

Well, every demand creates supply so I guess they'll be for sale at some stage.

[Jammrock]

I was going to say the current trend in lower-power electronics should lessen the impact, but given the increase in demand for electronics (no long a geeky thing to have all those gadgets) the trend should be pretty steady in the upward direction.

Eventually I think we'll plateau on power usage per human and our every device will consume only mW of power each. It will depend on population trends on whether we'll run out of juice in 400 years or not (assuming we make it that long).

Interestingly enough, there is a new TV announced for next Fall on the US NBC network called Revolution. The premise is all electricity powered devices have mysteriously stopped working all over the world and we end up in a mid-evil like state. Could be an interesting show to watch. Just thought it was an interesting coincidence.

[Umfriend]

It's a conspiracy I say!

[UtwigMU]

It's not that unlikely - an EMP caused by solar flares (it's likely if solar activity is very high) or atmospheric nuke (both USA and Soviet union experimented with this) would render all electronic devices out of order.

Here is an interesting video where Jeremy Clarkson (of Top Gear) puts a PC in EMP cell:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6pXzqWtooBI

Go to about 54 minutes to see what happens when computer is subjected to EMP.

[Jammrock]

Just remember to cover your jewels before you trigger an EMP bomb.