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Gettin' ugly,
In the short term this is going to delay many commercial launches as their mission planners seek alternatives to Russian launchers.
In the long term alternatives to Russian and Russian engined US heavy launchers will enter the market and mitigate the issue outside of Russia.
Some US missions will be delayed as launchers using Russian engines, like ULA's Atlas V (RD-180) and Orbital Sciences Antares (NK-33), are conserved due to anticipated shortages of their engines. Orbital is already looking for alternative engines, and possibly for its Ukrainian built first stage. Word is they want to move its production to the US.
Medium to mid-heavy lift and GTO payloads will likely migrate to SpaceX, ISRO (India), China (with a few exceptions), and JAXA (Japan.)
Heavy lift (Proton) class payloads may well migrate to SpaceX's Falcon Heavy after its maiden flight in early 2015. It will put 40-53 tonnes to LEO and over 22 tonnes to GTO. 13.2 tonnes to Mars.
In the US commercial crew program there are 2 launchers certified; Atlas V HR (HR = modified human rated version) and Falcon 9 v1.1 (which was designed for humans from day one.)* Atlas V HR uses the Russian RD-180 engine. Oops.
This engine issue (and high costs) now has both Boeing (CST-100 capsule) and Sierra Nevada (Dream Chaser spaceplane) contemplating a switch to the SpaceX Falcon 9 their DragonRider spacecraft will use. This would happen after their contracted Atlas V test flights.
Boeing's own Delta IV is not an option for commercial crew because of the high costs of human rating it, plus its high cost to begin with.
Article on this from Space News.
In the short term this is going to delay many commercial launches as their mission planners seek alternatives to Russian launchers.
In the long term alternatives to Russian and Russian engined US heavy launchers will enter the market and mitigate the issue outside of Russia.
Some US missions will be delayed as launchers using Russian engines, like ULA's Atlas V (RD-180) and Orbital Sciences Antares (NK-33), are conserved due to anticipated shortages of their engines. Orbital is already looking for alternative engines, and possibly for its Ukrainian built first stage. Word is they want to move its production to the US.
Medium to mid-heavy lift and GTO payloads will likely migrate to SpaceX, ISRO (India), China (with a few exceptions), and JAXA (Japan.)
Heavy lift (Proton) class payloads may well migrate to SpaceX's Falcon Heavy after its maiden flight in early 2015. It will put 40-53 tonnes to LEO and over 22 tonnes to GTO. 13.2 tonnes to Mars.
In the US commercial crew program there are 2 launchers certified; Atlas V HR (HR = modified human rated version) and Falcon 9 v1.1 (which was designed for humans from day one.)* Atlas V HR uses the Russian RD-180 engine. Oops.
This engine issue (and high costs) now has both Boeing (CST-100 capsule) and Sierra Nevada (Dream Chaser spaceplane) contemplating a switch to the SpaceX Falcon 9 their DragonRider spacecraft will use. This would happen after their contracted Atlas V test flights.
Boeing's own Delta IV is not an option for commercial crew because of the high costs of human rating it, plus its high cost to begin with.
Article on this from Space News.
U.S. Sanctions Putting the Brakes on Russia-bound Satellite Shipments
PARIS — U.S.-built satellites and satellites with U.S. components scheduled for launch this year from Russian territory, including the Russian-run Baikonur Cosmodrome — and vehicles outside Russian territory managed by Russian interests — are now faced with being denied the normally routine shipment approvals as U.S. sanctions against Russia, put into place in March, bite further into the space industry, industry officials said.
The most immediately affected companies included satellite fleet operator SES of Luxembourg, whose Astra 2G telecommunications satellite was scheduled for a June launch aboard a Proton rocket from Baikonur; London-based Inmarsat, which was counting on two Proton launches this year to start its global Ka-band mobile broadband project; and Turksat of Turkey, whose Turksat 4B was scheduled for a midsummer launch on a Proton.
In addition to these large geostationary-orbiting telecommunications satellites, whose owners contracted with International Launch Services of Reston, Va., for commercial Proton launches, small-satellite owners riding as secondary passengers on Russian Soyuz and Russian-Ukrainian Dnepr vehicles are also affected. Both these vehicles are launched from Baikonur or other Russian spaceports.
The decision in March by the U.S. Commerce and State departments to refuse to issue export licenses for Russia-bound defense and dual-use articles — categories that still include satellites — is now being felt.
Most satellite owners plan their launches at least a year, if not two years, before the planned liftoff. At the time of signing a contract with ILS or another operator of Russian vehicles, owners typically seek export approvals. But many of them do not seek final shipment authority — a mere formality in normal times — until the satellite is nearing completion.
It is these shipment approvals that are now being withheld under the U.S. sanctions policy, industry officials said.
“This is going to be a huge problem for the entire industry if the sanctions are not lifted soon,†said one official planning a launch on Russian territory this year. “If the Russian Proton rocket is not going to be available, then it’s an industry problem, not just a problem for a couple of companies. Ariane’s manifest is full,and so is SpaceX’s. Sea Launch is not a full option at this stage.â€
France-based Arianespace and Hawthorne, Calif.-based Space Exploration Technologies Corp. both compete with Russia’s Proton for launches of commercial telecommunications satellites. Switzerland-based Sea Launch AG is another competitor.
In what two industry officials agreed could be considered a canary in the coal mine, the*Canadian government blocked shipment to Baikonur*of a small Canadian government satellite with a commercial payload for maritime communications.*
It could not be immediately determined whether the satellite Canadian government was acting on its own policy or was following U.S. policy because the Maritime Monitoring and Messaging Microsatellite, M3M, has U.S. parts. M3M is one of several small satellites scheduled for launch aboard the Soyuz launch set for June. The main payload for the launch is a Russian meteorological satellite.
A U.S. industry official said the policy, which covers defense and dual-use items — and given the definition of satellites in the U.S. government, also includes spacecraft — extends beyond satellites and launches on Russian-controlled territory.
Any defense-related transaction with Russian interests would be affected, including tracking, telemetry and control services. Sea Launch, for example, operates in international waters but, because it is majority-owned by Russian interests, would also be covered, this official said.
It remained unclear whether the “Russian interests†meaning would extend to launches of Russian Soyuz rockets from Europe’s Guiana Space Center in French Guiana, on South America’s northeast coast.
France is the “launching state†in terms of legal responsibility for the European spaceport. But the Arianespace consortium contracts with the Russian space agency, Roscosmos, for the purchase of Soyuz rockets.
The Europeanized Soyuz’s position relative to the current U.S. sanctions will not be tested until late this year at the earliest. The next launch of the rocket, scheduled for June, is of four broadband communications satellites owned by O3b of Britain’s Channel Islands. The four satellites, which have U.S. components, arrived in French Guiana on April 25.
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PARIS — U.S.-built satellites and satellites with U.S. components scheduled for launch this year from Russian territory, including the Russian-run Baikonur Cosmodrome — and vehicles outside Russian territory managed by Russian interests — are now faced with being denied the normally routine shipment approvals as U.S. sanctions against Russia, put into place in March, bite further into the space industry, industry officials said.
The most immediately affected companies included satellite fleet operator SES of Luxembourg, whose Astra 2G telecommunications satellite was scheduled for a June launch aboard a Proton rocket from Baikonur; London-based Inmarsat, which was counting on two Proton launches this year to start its global Ka-band mobile broadband project; and Turksat of Turkey, whose Turksat 4B was scheduled for a midsummer launch on a Proton.
In addition to these large geostationary-orbiting telecommunications satellites, whose owners contracted with International Launch Services of Reston, Va., for commercial Proton launches, small-satellite owners riding as secondary passengers on Russian Soyuz and Russian-Ukrainian Dnepr vehicles are also affected. Both these vehicles are launched from Baikonur or other Russian spaceports.
The decision in March by the U.S. Commerce and State departments to refuse to issue export licenses for Russia-bound defense and dual-use articles — categories that still include satellites — is now being felt.
Most satellite owners plan their launches at least a year, if not two years, before the planned liftoff. At the time of signing a contract with ILS or another operator of Russian vehicles, owners typically seek export approvals. But many of them do not seek final shipment authority — a mere formality in normal times — until the satellite is nearing completion.
It is these shipment approvals that are now being withheld under the U.S. sanctions policy, industry officials said.
“This is going to be a huge problem for the entire industry if the sanctions are not lifted soon,†said one official planning a launch on Russian territory this year. “If the Russian Proton rocket is not going to be available, then it’s an industry problem, not just a problem for a couple of companies. Ariane’s manifest is full,and so is SpaceX’s. Sea Launch is not a full option at this stage.â€
France-based Arianespace and Hawthorne, Calif.-based Space Exploration Technologies Corp. both compete with Russia’s Proton for launches of commercial telecommunications satellites. Switzerland-based Sea Launch AG is another competitor.
In what two industry officials agreed could be considered a canary in the coal mine, the*Canadian government blocked shipment to Baikonur*of a small Canadian government satellite with a commercial payload for maritime communications.*
It could not be immediately determined whether the satellite Canadian government was acting on its own policy or was following U.S. policy because the Maritime Monitoring and Messaging Microsatellite, M3M, has U.S. parts. M3M is one of several small satellites scheduled for launch aboard the Soyuz launch set for June. The main payload for the launch is a Russian meteorological satellite.
A U.S. industry official said the policy, which covers defense and dual-use items — and given the definition of satellites in the U.S. government, also includes spacecraft — extends beyond satellites and launches on Russian-controlled territory.
Any defense-related transaction with Russian interests would be affected, including tracking, telemetry and control services. Sea Launch, for example, operates in international waters but, because it is majority-owned by Russian interests, would also be covered, this official said.
It remained unclear whether the “Russian interests†meaning would extend to launches of Russian Soyuz rockets from Europe’s Guiana Space Center in French Guiana, on South America’s northeast coast.
France is the “launching state†in terms of legal responsibility for the European spaceport. But the Arianespace consortium contracts with the Russian space agency, Roscosmos, for the purchase of Soyuz rockets.
The Europeanized Soyuz’s position relative to the current U.S. sanctions will not be tested until late this year at the earliest. The next launch of the rocket, scheduled for June, is of four broadband communications satellites owned by O3b of Britain’s Channel Islands. The four satellites, which have U.S. components, arrived in French Guiana on April 25.
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