EV truck invasion: Tesla & Rivian (Tesla Cybertruck reveal date)

[Dr Mordrid]

CNBC article about the coming invasion of EV trucks, especially from Tesla and a hard charging newcomer named Rivian.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/14/tesla-or-rivian-electric-pickup-may-be-a-serious-problem-for-detroit-automakers-morgan-stanley.html

Tesla's is said to be a Class 6 monster, at home in Blade Runner or Mad Max. To be announced later this year. Rumors: 6 passenger, 240/120 power plugs, air compressor, 4-wheel steering, MASSIVE towing capacity, 400-500 mile range.

Early concept, may not hold


Rivian

HQ in Plymouth MI
Factory in Illinois
Engineering in California and elsewhere

Investors: Amazon, GM rumored, others.

Shipping 2020 in the US, then the UK, Europe, China etc.

For now a large SUV and a Pickup, more later. Up to a 180 kW battery, 4 electric motors, and it can run in 1 meter of water before it floats & loses traction (hmmm...trolling motor?)

Testbeds have been seen locally, and they look seriously cool

[UtwigMU]

I think heat will be turned up for tesla. I see eGolfs, BMW i3s, Renault Zoes Smarts, Nissan Leaves, occasional Tesla S but I haven't seen a Tesla 3. Now other manufacturers with better manufacturing expertise are entering the market.

In Ljubljana there is car polling with first 3 mentioned cars where you can pick a car for a single ride with an app for very reasonable price.

The pick-up trucks are not very popular here so there won't be a big market for electrical ones. Mainly people who own construction company and some contractors have them although they prefer vans.

[Dr Mordrid]

Europe just received the first shipment of Model 3's with right hand drive and about 3,000/week will be heading there. I suspect the Model Y crossover may do well there, it being based on Model 3 (about 70-75% commonality.) They deliver in China late this year from the Shanghai Gigafactory and elsewhere in 2020. The European Gigafactory announcement shouldn't be too far off.

[VJ]

Europe just received the first shipment of Model 3's with right hand drive and about 3,000/week will be heading there. I suspect the Model Y crossover may do well there, it being based on Model 3 (about 70-75% commonality.) They deliver in China late this year from the Shanghai Gigafactory and elsewhere in 2020. The European Gigafactory announcement shouldn't be too far off.

Yes, the first batch was unloaded in Zeebrugge, Musk even came to Belgium for that.

Still, I tend to agree with UtwigMU: the heat will be turned up for Tesla. The electric cars here (Poland) are mainly Leaf, BMW i3 and then the occasional Tesla S or BMW i8. Given that there are 0 incentives at the moment in Poland, electric cars are ridiculously expensive and don't pay off economically (to give an idea: the VW eUP, which is the electric version of the UP!, a small citycar which sits below the Polo which is in turn below the Golf is in the price range of the Passat Limousine in the base-price catalog, the e-Golf is only surprised in price by the Touareg). But legislation is about to change, as lawmakers intend to introduce a law to subsidise electric vehicles. In Spain, the Niro was rather visibly present in the street.

VW is all the time announcing their electric plans based on the MEB platform, but first commercial models are still a year away. We also have to consider that electricity is getting more and more expensive, with the cost of electricity here said to double in the next year. This might hold off people of an expensive purchase. And also: the secondhand market is currently flooded with relatively new German diesels, EVs in general will have a tough time competing on the purchase price.

[Umfriend]

In the Netherlands we have had quite a few fiscal subsidy measures to favor low to zero emission vehicles. Each measure turned out bad. We had one on low emission cars which caused a lot of sales of small cars with small diesel engines that no one would buy were it not for the subsidy. This turned out to be a far to expensive measure (great succes!). It was abolished and the 2nd hand market was flooded with cheap cars that mostly found their way abroad. Same for hybrids a bit further on which could run with low emission but it wasn't the emmission that was taxed but the purchase. As a result, a lot of Outlanders were bought but rarely driven electrically. So that was abolished and many sold outside. Now we have a similar thing with zero emission vehicles. Very popular subsidy so it was limited later. Many expensive full electric cars were exported. In all, the subsidies have cost a lot of money, often encouraged the purchase of larger, heavier vehicles and it was mostly the ROW that benefited.

If the EU would just tax petrol/diesel more and electricity less then the incentive toward EV would be far better.

I wouldn't know about Poland but in the Netherlands, electricity has not become more expensive in the last 10 years(!), rather there is a trend towards lower prices. Many do not experience it that way as taxes on energy have risen. Electricity prices do increasingly exhibit a seasonal pattern, I guess due to more solar panels being used.

[UtwigMU]

Speaking of electricity: how much do you guys pay?
I live alone in 2.5 room apartment, electric boiler, hob, washing machine, dishwasher, NAS. I replaced all bulbs with LEDs. I' spend a lot of time at work or outside, I cook few times a week. I paid 50€ last month, last year I paid on average 40€ a month.

For comparison I pay 25€ for 100/10Mb FTTH.

[VJ]

I wouldn't know about Poland but in the Netherlands, electricity has not become more expensive in the last 10 years(!), rather there is a trend towards lower prices. Many do not experience it that way as taxes on energy have risen. Electricity prices do increasingly exhibit a seasonal pattern, I guess due to more solar panels being used.

In Belgium, prices shot up. Not so much the price per kWh, but rather the distribution cost (which makes it even worse if you have solar panels, as you pay for putting electricity on the grid). Then again, electricity in Belgium is so badly managed that from October they started fearing blackouts in winter (several nuclear reactors down for unscheduled maintenance, combined that Belgium is at the limit of what it can import - partly caused by the loop-flows of Germany, but they have said to lower their loop-flows if Belgium needs more electricity).

In Poland, prices are said to go up. There is a bit of a delay as of now, but it will happen over the next couple of invoices.

I'd have to check how much I pay here....

[Umfriend]

It's not that easy to say how much I pay for electricity. There is a fixed charge of about EUR 8/month for distribution. I also receive about 380/year as compensation for taxation of energy. But the marginal costs are easy: EUR 0.18/kWh. Of that, 0.15 is taxes....

[VJ]

It's not that easy to say how much I pay for electricity. There is a fixed charge of about EUR 8/month for distribution. I also receive about 380/year as compensation for taxation of energy. But the marginal costs are easy: EUR 0.18/kWh. Of that, 0.15 is taxes....

Some interesting statistics on prices in EU:

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Electricity_price_statistics

[Umfriend]

These differences may seem stark but I wonder whether it may in part be caused by differences in funding out of the general budget. It may be that in one country all energy is paid through the electricity bill while in another the government may partly pay for energy.

Another striking thing, to my mind, is that in the US the average consumer cost is about $0.1043/kWh. That is about €0.0920(!). But many in the US feel that energy is overtaxed to the detriment of their competitiveness.

[Dr Mordrid]

>
Another striking thing, to my mind, is that in the US the average consumer cost is about $0.1043/kWh. That is about €0.0920(!). But many in the US feel that energy is overtaxed to the detriment of their competitiveness.

Off-hour (overnight) rates in the US can be lower. Our utility charges $0.069/kWh for the first 17 kWh and $0.082/kWh after that.

If you sign up for an EV charging plan you get Level 2 charging for $0.07695/kWh.

[dZeus]

Speaking of electricity: how much do you guys pay?
I live alone in 2.5 room apartment, electric boiler, hob, washing machine, dishwasher, NAS. I replaced all bulbs with LEDs. I' spend a lot of time at work or outside, I cook few times a week. I paid 50€ last month, last year I paid on average 40€ a month.

For comparison I pay 25€ for 100/10Mb FTTH.

37€ for 212 KWh per month, although I have no idea how much I actually use (haven't had the true-op yet). All heating and cooking is on gas (so not included in this budget).

FTTH is 25€ for 200/200 Mbps (could have been 300/300 if I had done better research and had signed up with a 'cheaper brand' of the same network provider).

I think energy and internet is only a very small fraction of the total costs of living. Healthcare costs over total lifespan, pension, daycare for children, cost of a university degree, etc. cause much bigger differences.

[paulw]

Europe just received the first shipment of Model 3's with right hand drive and about 3,000/week will be heading there. I suspect the Model Y crossover may do well there, it being based on Model 3 (about 70-75% commonality.) They deliver in China late this year from the Shanghai Gigafactory and elsewhere in 2020. The European Gigafactory announcement shouldn't be too far off.

Why would they send RHD cars to Europe which are LHD countries ??

[dZeus]

Why would they send RHD cars to Europe which are LHD countries ??

only the UK, Ireland and Malta are LHD in Europe.

On that note, one of my colleagues of Irish descent told me: "Ireland is planning to switch over to RHD. They'll start with the lorries."

[VJ]

only the UK, Ireland and Malta are LHD in Europe.

On that note, one of my colleagues of Irish descent told me: "Ireland is planning to switch over to RHD. They'll start with the lorries."

I think you mean that UK, Ireland and Malta are RHD...