WTF :2019-nCoV NovaCoronaVirus Thread

[Dilitante1]

think hurricane bad so food, water,meds/vitamins, candles/lights, batteries, books/materials to keep occupied until things go back to normal

[UtwigMU]

think hurricane bad so food, water,meds/vitamins, candles/lights, batteries, books/materials to keep occupied until things go back to normal

Meds stocked up.
The pharmacies ran out of masks and hand disinfectants, though I think cheap masks will hardly protect you. I saw that people bought more pasta and pasta sauces than usual.

Groceries:
Bought about a month's worth of food for €170 (usually I spend around 20-30). Government resigned in January and the mainstream media is telling people we're prepared, nothing to worry about. Once first cases will be here, people will go into panic mode and store shelves will be empty (they are empty in Milano, which is 4h drive from me).

Need to buy 18650 flashlight as I have plenty of 18650s.

One Italian admin I know online who works in hospital said they already had a corona case near Venice, this is 2h drive from me and this area is very integrated with Italy.

[dZeus]

Meds stocked up.
The pharmacies ran out of masks and hand disinfectants, though I think cheap masks will hardly protect you. I saw that people bought more pasta and pasta sauces than usual.

Groceries:
Bought about a month's worth of food for €170 (usually I spend around 20-30). Government resigned in January and the mainstream media is telling people we're prepared, nothing to worry about. Once first cases will be here, people will go into panic mode and store shelves will be empty (they are empty in Milano, which is 4h drive from me).

Need to buy 18650 flashlight as I have plenty of 18650s.

One Italian admin I know online who works in hospital said they already had a corona case near Venice, this is 2h drive from me and this area is very integrated with Italy.

Some thoughts:
- a pandemic is inevitable at this point, there are too many countries with uncontrolled infections (italy, iran, south korea)
- Chinese numbers are not reliable (as usual), which makes it hard to properly prepare oneselve
- It seems highly contagious, but the percentage of infected that develop serious complications requiring intensive care is not known
- same for mortality rate, but first indications seem to suggest it hits the 60+ much harder than 60- population, and similarly for people with some underlying health conditions (hard to tell which ones exactly at this point)
- Due to high r0, this will completely overwhelm health care systems in any country
- once the healthcare system hits saturation (very shortly after this virus spreads as an epidemic inside a country), your best bet are provisional field hospitals, and at worst you're left to your own devices at home. Mortality rate of this last category requiring intensive care will suck.

Based on the above, if you're in a high-risk population, your highest chance if survival is:
- get infected very early on, before the healthcare system reaches saturation
- live like a hermit in a very sparsely populated area, for 2-3 months to wait out the first big wave

If you're not in a high risk population, you may want to take the risk and wait it out where you live. Stocking up on some food and other essentials doesn't hurt.

I'd rather not stay in my 500k+ city when it goes into quarantine. Once we hear about the nunber of cases hitting 3-4 I'll relocate to a sparsely populated area temporarily.

[UtwigMU]

Some thoughts:
- a pandemic is inevitable at this point, there are too many countries with uncontrolled infections (italy, iran, south korea)
- Chinese numbers are not reliable (as usual), which makes it hard to properly prepare oneselve
- It seems highly contagious, but the percentage of infected that develop serious complications requiring intensive care is not known
- same for mortality rate, but first indications seem to suggest it hits the 60+ much harder than 60- population, and similarly for people with some underlying health conditions (hard to tell which ones exactly at this point)
- Due to high r0, this will completely overwhelm health care systems in any country
- once the healthcare system hits saturation (very shortly after this virus spreads as an epidemic inside a country), your best bet are provisional field hospitals, and at worst you're left to your own devices at home. Mortality rate of this last category requiring intensive care will suck.

Based on the above, if you're in a high-risk population, your highest chance if survival is:
- get infected very early on, before the healthcare system reaches saturation
- live like a hermit in a very sparsely populated area, for 2-3 months to wait out the first big wave

If you're not in a high risk population, you may want to take the risk and wait it out where you live. Stocking up on some food and other essentials doesn't hurt.

I'd rather not stay in my 500k+ city when it goes into quarantine. Once we hear about the nunber of cases hitting 3-4 I'll relocate to a sparsely populated area temporarily.

I live in 10k town next to 30k town in Italy, and I don't usually don't meet many people in day to day life, so I'll stay here, other alternative is 300k city.

All good points, especially on the health systems will be overwhelmed (here they are stretched thin as it is without Corona).

[VJ]

No cases yet here in Poland, but seeing how it spreads it seemsinevitable to me . According to a WHO report, they estimate that the confirmed cases make up 1/3 of the total number of infections (for many people it just results in mild cold-like symptoms). Living in 2M people city, an epidemic does have the potential to disrupt things. So we are planning to increase our food storage as it never hurts to have a bit extra reserve: worst case we need it, best case we just eat in time. I don't think batteries or so are that necessary as unlike a hurricane it won't affect the hardware infrastructure.

[UtwigMU]

Updates:
- there is military exercise with our NATO US allies but as I heard USA is moving some of their troops stationed in Italy to Slovenia temporarily
- some Croatian van driver was illegally smuggling Chinese migrants. Police processed them in hazmat suits
- Italians shopping in Slovenia and stocking up
- still no case in Slovenia but it's in 3/4 neighboring countries, so it's just a matter of time
- we're getting right wing government next week and new PM has prooven good track record in crisis, much better than going to elections and waiting for 6 months for operational government

[Dr Mordrid]

OT

Is that exercise on April 8?

If so it includes a big live-fire test of the SpaceX StarLink satellites

[UtwigMU]

OT

Is that exercise on April 8?

If so it includes a big live-fire test of the SpaceX StarLink satellites

Couldn't find anything quickly on our mil websites.

[UtwigMU]

Italy stopped informing on new cases, only cases needing hospitalization will be reported.
R0 seems to be 5-6 and doubling time in Italy is around 2-3 days.

There is competing information. On one hand Chinese have been under-reporting cases and on the other the slowdown of spread in China is due to draconian measures (only residents can enter building, if you have fever you cannot go out, if you have symptoms you are barred in your home or you get forcibly taken to quarantine). I don't think such draconian measures will go down easily in Europe.

[Evildead666]

Power outage here now, not very windy.
on UPS.
Will check weather site.

edit : on hols at home for next two weeks.
Planned since january.
hope power comes back.

went to dentist in paris.
moulinet.
did 5 teeth.
4 more appointments to go...

edit2 : not sure why power is out.
unless someone hit the leccy pole, but that should be underground now...
weather doesnt show anything strange

edit3; ups beeping like crazy. going offline.

edit 4 : a long one that one, all the ups's went out, apart from the main internet router

[UtwigMU]

This channel has some good info:
Dr. John Campbell

[Evildead666]

Its getting quite weird here.
Im fine, and on hols and all, but the numbers here are possibly going to go like italy.
Therefore, it has been here for weeks already, just dormant, or very mild, flu-cold like.

Due to the reaction from the Chinese, id be betting on the leaked from a lab, but i get everything 50/50 wrong, whichever way i guess it.
Time wil tell.

[Evildead666]

We're now catching up on germany, but faster.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://thewuhanvirus.com/

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[Evildead666]

Yeah, basically, youll need meds if you need them, and some painkillers and disinfectant.
Just in case.
After that, its food, long term food, so you can re-use later if it was for nothing.
Anything over 45%/90° Alcohol can be considered a disinfectant, the higher the better the less used.

Have bought pasta, rice (hate the stuff) and tuna and sardines.
You can actually get sardines "De Garde" that only get better over time. No sell by/use by date.
Bleach pastilles for water, theyll keep, not enough cat food.

Pastis mixes with water as a drink, so im happy i got another bottle of that.

Britas filters should be good for rainwater if needed.

edit : should i get this thing and have to self-quarantine.
Im on hols for 2 weeks anyway, and as long as ive got internet, ill be fine

Also have 12 jars of peanut butter left, might last the next week or two.

[UtwigMU]

Found this prepping list

https://imgur.com/gallery/FsZH8ZR#wB8XsQ1

IMO also take assessment on how likely will your job be affected. In China they saw significant drop in economic activity and some industries like tourism will be more affected.

Beyond food reserves so you can self quarantine or make it through if your town gets closed for a month, cashflow is the most important. Build some monetary reserve, cut bullshit expenses, look for other income streams.

I think by spring 2021 at the latest this will be behind us and there will be optimism and upturn but you need to financially make it until then.