Which stonks are you buying if any?

[Umfriend]

Yes, it is confusing, but not surprising, that they chose that ticker instead of TMTG (Trump Media & Technology Group). I think it is the most overvalued personal web page in the history of the interweb.

1/13'000, noice!

[Dr Mordrid]

Too many down signs for Tesla Q1 telegraphed so out for bonds, instincts proved correct. Red Sea shipping problems, controversies in Berlin turned into an ecoterror attack, etc. Back in for Q2. Yesterday was the earnings call for Q1.

While financials were down they remained profitable. T announced they are accelerating their new cheaper vehicles (yes, plural) in existing factories on lines that are now more efficient. Some could hit the street later this year.

Now pushing to 3 million vehicles many in the lower cost range. In their master plan they list a van (possibly also for use in the Loop tunnels, the Las Vegas Loop being expanded to 68 miles), a CRV size vehicle, robotaxi, and a bus.

Tesla went up 11% after hours. We'll see what they do tomorrow

[Umfriend]

Well done. I suck at market timing.

[Umfriend]

I may suck at timing and stock picking but I am patient and somewhat disciplined. I stated applying my "algorithm" to PHI (Philips) March 22 and it has been a bumpy ride. Today they reported a 24 Q1 1 bln LOSS and the stock rose by over 40% right now. Funny that. So I was able to clean out my option positions and some stock holdings and am now left with 200 PHI stock at a negative cost, excluding received dividends and option premia. I am out of actively algo-ing PHI.

[Dr Mordrid]

Here's one to keep your eyes on

VW + Rivian joint venture

The R2 is a mid-sized eSUV which Rivian will be producing. They have a good platform, and their software is improving regularly. VW could improve their platform and software, providing Rivian with the money to complete a very large factory down south.

https://x.com/RJScaringe/status/1805694762286301406

Full text

"This is exciting! Volkswagen Group CEO Oliver Blume and I are thrilled to announce the formation of a joint venture between our two companies. This partnership brings Rivian’s software and zonal electronics platform to a broader market through Volkswagen Group’s global reach and scale, while providing an expected $5B of capital to @Rivian as we bring R2 and our next generation of vehicles to market!"

[UtwigMU]

So INTC dropped massively on bad Q2 results.

I watched the conference call. They have massive number of nodes, product names. They are betting the farm on Lunar Lake CPUs built on TSMC to power AI?! PCs (whatever is that, remember when P4 Netburst made your Internet faster if you had one?) However fab strategy seems on track but it won't be until 2027 when they start being profitable. They suspended dividend.

Personally Pat Gelsinger does not inspire confidence, keeps beating around the bush with corporate word salad.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Intel_CPU_microarchitectures

4 architectures in 2 years with the last one being bad. Basically Intel 7 is 10nm and Raptor lake has problems like Whiskey lake and other 10nm CPUs before that. I recently upgraded my server and bought Raptor Lake Xeon. It's not on any affected lists and Proxmox and Supermicro will ship microcode updates. I picked Xeon over Ryzen more because of the respective Supermicro motherboard features.

Also what did he exactly do at VMware in 2009-2012. VMware is still the same, they only cut drivers for some hardware, made it harder to install drivers and make changes and now Broadcom introduced extortionate prices.

I still think that it is more likely than not that Intel will recover, this is similar to AMD which fell from $40 in 2007 under $2 in 2009-2013 and only started to pick up in 2016. But Pat will probably have to go.

[UtwigMU]

Otherwise like Warren Buffet I've been going mostly cash for past year or so, also because I might need to change job/relocate. The bubble burst is finally coming so ahead we will have some good opportunities to buy good companies on sale.

[Umfriend]

Well yes. I am terrible at both stock picking and market timing but if you indeed shrunk your INTC holdings then now might be a nice time to expand it a bit perhaps.

I am simply a market taker and volatility seller in a way that simply increases my holdings when prices go down and decreases when prices go up. It's somewhat risky but YOLO.

[UtwigMU]

I bought Intel at $35 before but it was part of my semi NVDA, AMD, INTC portfolio. I did take some profit from AMD and NVDA and if they fall I might add. I think if Intel weathers the crisis it will be worth much more than $35. I have bought more INTC today bellow $21 and will see in couple of years.

Intel is now selling bellow book value.

Not betting the farm, only around 5% of portfolio.

[Umfriend]

Would you consider shorting a call option on INTC, say INTC C SEP24 22.00 at 0.50? It's really annoying but I seem not to be easily able to trade options in the US... INTC as it stands currently would qualify as an addition to my active portfolio, save that I cannot trade the options.

[UtwigMU]

You can do options on US stocks in IBKR but you need something like 50k liquidity in your account.

[UtwigMU]

IBM at ATH $234, I'm up 82%. I saw it going north of 200 before they replaced Ginni Rometty.

[Umfriend]

Not being active as the budget is allocated and heavily biased towards lithium mining and processing.

[UtwigMU]

Also not active this year because the commies in the government increased taxes so I had to come up with €€€€ and at work the wheels are about to fall off so I increased emergency cash by 50%.

[UtwigMU]

Gelsinger retired, INTC up.