Russia launches ISS Nauka module (new cracks in the Zarya module)

[Dr Mordrid]

Russia launched their Nauka module

At least it didn't auger itself into the Kazakhstan steppe

https://youtu.be/9-xBhU7ZI7s

http://parabolicarc.com/2021/07/21/russia-launches-nauka-space-station-module-into-orbit/

[UtwigMU]

Nauka translates to science.

[Dr Mordrid]

Uh-Oh...


Anatoly Zak @RussianSpaceWeb
UPDATE: #Nauka's main engines (pictured in operation) are currently out of commission. Specialists are troubleshooting the issue and developing a backup rendezvous plan. The module has ~30 stable orbits at current altitude. EXCLUSIVE DETAILS: http://russianspaceweb.com/insider-content.html
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Replying to @RussianSpaceWeb
Mission control might attempt Nauka's orbit correction in coming hours. DETAILS: http://russianspaceweb.com/insider-conten
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Despite what you might read in the Russian press, there was no engine firing attempts aboard #Nauka as of this moment...

https://twitter.com/RussianSpaceWeb/status/1418196367831339010

[UtwigMU]

Launch is not in mainstream news headlines.

[Dr Mordrid]

What media reports are coming out of Russia have a lot of "massaged" language.

Roscosmos is struggling with multiple problems. First with main engine propulsion, which may or may not be resolved, but also with the KURS docking navigation and other systems, causing the original schedule to go out the window.

By no means out of the woods, and there are rumors if it does arrive at ISS the Russians will climb into a Soyuz and perform an exterior exam.

These delays could easily delay Boeing's July 30 Starliner Orbital Flight Test 2 (OFT-2), a repeat test flight of their crew capsule. The OFT (1) mission ran into numerous in-flight problems (84+ !!), forcing a nearly 2 year NASA anal-exam review of Boeing's safety culture and the Starliner program.

Not good looks for either Roscosmos or Boeing.

[UtwigMU]

There are not many reports. I scanned 1tv.ru (big russian TV channel) which I only watch when something is happening (not much in past year or so) and there were no reports on this in the news headlines.

News cycle is: Olympics, Covid, upcoming parliament elections (september, Putin is in power till 2024), floods

[Dr Mordrid]

One of the best sources for Russia space is Anatomy Zak, who contributes to Aviation Week, Smithsonian Air & Space, etc. He also runs the RussianSpaceWeb website. Go back a few days on his Twitter feed and work forward.

https://twitter.com/RussianSpaceWeb?s=09

[Dr Mordrid]

Lots of trouble after launch, and today...

NASA@NASA
Following this morning's docking of the Nauka module to the @Space_Station, the module's thrusters started firing at 12:45pm ET inadvertently and unexpectedly, moving the station 45 degrees out of attitude. Recovery operations have regained attitude and the crew is in no danger:

https://twitter.com/NASA/status/1420801401358364678

Eric Berger @SciGuySpace (Ars Technica)
Jul 29, 2021
Good news from MCC Houston: Nauka thrusters are no longer firing. Attitude control appears to be stabilizing for the International Space Station.
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It's not clear what happens next, or whether this affects the planned launch of Starliner on Friday afternoon from Florida. What we know from MCC Houston: "It’s safe to say the remainder of the day is no longer going to happen as scheduled."

https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1420799079366397957

Starliner OFT-2 was scrubbed, likely until August 3.

[MultimediaMan]

"Never any danger to the crew or the ISS"

Ahem...Bullshit(-ski).

Nauka's manuvering thrusters fired when it was in the process of being hardlinked to the Zvezda module and internal Umbilicals were being connected. ISS Docking is a multi-step process, and one of the things they do after docking is to fasten together the modules with bolts (sometimes explosive, sometimes not) to eliminate stress on the docking ring (essentially transferring the load to the much stronger docking flange surrounding the docking ring). To say Nauka and the ISS were in a delicate condition when all this occurred is an understatement. ISS Procedures are to deactivate the station-keeping maneuvering system during docking operations. ISS was not configured for maneuvering and wasn't in a maneuvering-ready configuration (hardware or software). Indications from NASA were that two Cosmonauts were actually inside the Zvezda docking ring vestibule when all of this went down. The fact the Russian Controllers had to wait until Nauka was in range of a Russian relay station to send commands to the module means the Umbilicals weren't connected or were non-functional. Ooops.

At least now we know where Boeing got it's software from: The Russians!

[Dr Mordrid]

Yup. A total cluster-frack starting at liftoff, and the Russian space program is dissolving as we watch. I seriously think the Gateway/Artemis partners are better off, and safer, without Roscosmos involved.

[UtwigMU]

The old Soviet stuff works but I remember East Cosmodrome running over budget and schedule, embezzlement to the point where Putin showed up in person to tell them to get their act together.

[Dr Mordrid]

The old Soviet stuff works but I remember East Cosmodrome running over budget and schedule, embezzlement to the point where Putin showed up in person to tell them to get their act together.

When the Kleptocrat-in-Chief is worried about the corruption the country's in serious trouble.

[UtwigMU]

It's not that simple. In any country the person at the top needs to share resources with those who keep him in power.

Putin has accumulated enough resources but he needs oligarchs to keep him in power. Were external factors to overthrow Putin and bring someone pro-Western in power like in Ukraine, the oligarchs would still be around (perhaps different oligarchs) and the level of corruption would have been the same. See Ukraine. They had changes of pro Western and pro Russian cleptocrats but country hasn't made any economic progress. Belarus under Lukasenko did better than Ukraine economically.

Now compare Putin to his predecessors. Under him Russia went from 3k to 13k GDP/per capita (comparable to Croatia). Most indicators improved under Putin's rule.
Tsar Nikolai, entered war, was forced to abdicate
Lenin, revolution, civil war
Stalin, ruthless, under Stalin actually Soviet Union experienced best economic growth. He commited many atrocities but he pulled country up and won in WW2
Khruschev, space program, rockets, still growth but less harsh than stalin
Brezhnev, country stagnated economically, while people perceive this period as the best. Massive military buildup, far beyond what economy could support
Gorbachev, a lot of Russians see him as weak and traitor. Economic crash, no new missiles, planes, subs, tanks, rockets for 20 years
Yeltsin, Russians see this as their worst period with country in shambles, shortages, lack of order, robberies, loosing Chechen war

Compared to those guys Putin is the best leader Russia had in last 100 years. Most Russians like Putin or think there is no alternative. Navalny is only local politician from Moscow.

Putin's problem is that Edinnaya Rossiya (pro Putin party although he runs as independent) attracts people who want to get rich like sh!t attracts flies. That party is massively corrupt and it's not looking good for them. Swamp if you will. Any party in Russia being in power as long would attract such people. To the point that Putin sacked economically liberal Medvedyev and installed Mishustin as head of Party/Prime Minister.

So while Putin is still popular, the party is loosing popular support. Next biggest party is communists, followed by Zhirinovsky, who says harsh nationalist stuff but hasn't actually done anything. Basically he can say things Putin can't. Then you have some minor parties. There are irregularities in party elections. The biggest block criticizing Putin is actually around 15-20% hawks/rightwingers calling him weak for not driving tanks into Kiev. The liberal block around Navalny only has around 5% support and they don't make it in parliament. A bit like US green or libertarian party.

Putin took around 10 years to consolidate his position, he got rid of some oligarchs and onboarded others. Some oligarchs also dislike Putin but it's more how you dislike your boss.

If you take Putin of the table you have two scenarios. A strong oligarch or group of oligarchs take over. They could be pro western or nationalist. There would be same if not bigger level of corruption and depends whether they would be as effective as he is. It would take them 10 years to attain level of consolidation Putin has. Other scenario is some nominal president like Yeltsin, where local oligarchs completely control their regions and industries. In this scenario there would definitely be more corruption and less effectiveness.

[MultimediaMan]

UtwigMU: Personally, I like Putin for what he has done for the Russian Federation. As you say, compared to the leaders of Russia over the last 100 years, Putin is on the fast track to sainthood. Not a perfect man by any means, but his government has been made good for the average citizen than any before him (possibly dating back as far as 500 years). The modern Western Media doesn't like him because they see him as an autocrat (which he certainly is), but they steadfastly will not acknowledge that he is a competent autocrat, which is a rare thing indeed. Yes, there is corruption under Putin... but not like any of his predecessors. It's a question of degree.

The Economic growth in the Soviet Union in the 1930's-1960's was lubricated with the blood of the citizens it purposefully killed; Terror, not enthusiasm or innovation, powered that period of growth, and ultimately killed it in the mid-1970's to ~2000.

The Russian Federation isn't hard to understand, Geopolitically. It is another thing entirely to comprehend why the average Russian likes Putin if you were brought up in the West, but it's not that hard either; If you saw/remember what Russia went through during the Yeltsin years, it is rather easy.

[UtwigMU]

It's in news cycle now only after they sorted out problems and haven't crashed anything.