Russia - Ukraine war

[Dr Mordrid]

Russia is an early 20th century power trying to find its way through the 21st century. So far they aren't doing very well, and it's going to bite them in the ass.

[Dr Mordrid]

Increasing tensions between Kazakhstan and Russia over Ukraine. Can't help but think there's a p ubossible impact on Russia's Baikonur launch center, which is in Kazakhstan.

https://twitter.com/b_nishanov/status/1545423985977982977

[UtwigMU]

There was an Islamist revolution attempt in Kazakhstan in December but it was put down with help from Russia. Former Kazakh president Nazarbaev (he ruled the place for 30 years) did really good job of strengthening and building up Kazakhstan while avoiding ethnic tensions. He also cracked down hard on Islamists (despite country's main religion being islam). He maintained good relations with Russia: they are positioned between Russia, China, Caspian sea and Pakistan/Afghanisan further south, Russia being their best choice out of those.

He was forced to step down by factions in the government and since then the place is a bit less stable. Another problem is high inflation but they also have oil profits.

[UtwigMU]

Let me explain situation from US perspective: In USA there is a revolution, USA falls apart in 10-15 blocks of states. Texas maintains good relations with core of southern US states and hosts their military. Mexico creates a coup, then southern states create a counter coup followed by another Mexican coup. The new Mexican sponsored president of Texas says he will make Spanish official language, ban English and ban pro American political parties, evict southern US army and join Mexico. On top of that he plans to host Russian and Chinese missiles pointed at south US states. Some parts of Texas don't like that and decide to create independent states within Texas. Central Government from Austin sends military trained by and helped by Mexican mercenaries. US southern states support rebels in Texas. After no agreement is reached for 8 years and low scale military conflict continues, US southern states decide to "liberate" or "violently occupy" (depending whether you're pro Mexico or pro US southern states) Texas. English speakers welcome them as liberators, while Spanish speakers see them as evil Gringo occupiers.

The sad part is that for Ukraine it would be best if they could separate peacefully and remain friends like Czechia and Slovakia. Unfortunately USA thinks they will weaken Russia and Russia's relations with other post Soviet and European states and screw over the EU by keeping the conflict going until the last Ukrainian. They are helping Ukraine just enough to keep war going but not enough to win. Russia also wants in best case the whole Ukraine as they see it as their win from WW2. 20 million people died for this and they are not letting it go. Maybe some elements just want eastern and black Sea coast Russian speaking regions.

Had Hillary won in 2016 with Biden in administration, this conflict would have started 4 years earlier.

Ukrainian government's position is give back Crimea and pull back to Russia which does not reflect reality on the ground. Russians got going now and they won't stop grinding until they get east and south. No one wants to sit in a bunker for 100 years, not even billionaires, so there won't be a nuclear war or NATO response. There also won't be peace anytime soon.

[UtwigMU]

Tensions starting in Kosovo.
Serbians blocked border crossings out of protest over Albanians not recognizing Serbian issued licence plates and documents (which was a countermeasure for Serbia not recognizing Kosovo licence plates and requiring vehicles to get temp licence plate).
Albanians sending special forces to crossings, shots fired.
Serbian army on high alert.
Serbian president calls for peace but says there will be no surrender and Serbia will win.
Serbian MP says they need own denacification.
NATO KFOR forces say situation on the ground is normal.

Could be a nothingburger that will fade out but also could be start of another conflict that drags NATO in.

[VJ]

The news outlets don't seem to mention Albania or Albanian forces..., only Kosovo and Serbia, e.g. https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...serbian-border

[UtwigMU]

Kosovars = Albanian nationality not Albanian country. I mean ethnically Albanian forces and ethnic Albanian Kosovo Army.