Russia - Ukraine war

[Umfriend]

I hadn't really thought about it but it is a good question: Why can you supply advanced weaponry but not planes? It does feel to me there is a distinction but if you ask me what it is, I'm not sure I'd be unable to actually answer.

What if such planes were used to drop a few on Shakhty Airport and some landed on the Salyus clinic? Maybe that is a difference: Anti-tank and air-defense missiles are harder to use offensively?

[Dr Mordrid]

https://twitter.com/AndreiSoldatov/status/1502221544499601411

Andrei Soldatov @AndreiSoldatov

Putin appears to be truly unhappy with the FSB in Ukraine: he attacked the 5 Service SOiMS (FSB's foreign Intelligence branch). Sergei Beseda, head of the Service, and his deputy Bolukh, head of the DOI, placed under house arrest, according to my sources inside.

[paulw]

Wonder if there will be the equivalent to a Russian "Night of the long knives" ??

[Dr Mordrid]

I was thinking more like the night of polonium 210, but I guess long knives or sarin are a little faster.

[Dr Mordrid]

Confirmed by The Times (UK)

Ukraine is using advanced drones connected to their artillery using spacex's Sterlink Network. Apparently they sent out an OTA patch that allows Starlink to evade Russian jamming.

Some other area sat networks were disabled early in the war, and haven't come back.

[Dr Mordrid]

Good Lord, if they pull this off

Joe Scarborough @JoeNBC
“Ukraine has been mounting a counterattack, with Ukrainian forces attacking Russian troops north of Kyiv from the rear, in a wide pincer movement to cut them off from the Russian border. Ukraine is now encircling the enemy that tried to encircle Kyiv.”

https://twitter.com/JoeNBC/status/1506666832954105858;

[Umfriend]

That would be amazing. As the war goes on I am more and more inclined to think that NATO should say; Russia, clear out in a week or we'll help you clear out. We won't attack Russia, we're not going to have Ukraine as a member at least for the coming 20 years (which IMO is a concession as it is really not Russia's business), we'll leave once you're cleared out but yes, if you're not gone in a week, we'll move you. Oh, and we'll start talking reparations in 10 days.

[UtwigMU]

You are right. However that doesn't seem to be the plan. Had NATO gone in and decisively set boundaries to Russia this would have ended. However it seems NATO/USA are helping Ukraine just enough for this to continue and possibly drag in other countries. Also the other way: Had Russia finished their operation in two weeks like in Georgia in 2008 there would be a new cold war but peace with low risk for conflict expanding to other countries.

[Dr Mordrid]

This morning there was a report by AFP that the US and allies are sending anti-ship missiles to Ukraine, then Russian ships were hit.

https://twitter.com/FittingMechani1/status/1506962362573770752

[Umfriend]

You are right. However that doesn't seem to be the plan. Had NATO gone in and decisively set boundaries to Russia this would have ended. However it seems NATO/USA are helping Ukraine just enough for this to continue and possibly drag in other countries.

Sure. That's NATO's plan: Make sure this drags on forever and drains countries' resources. It's all part of the "plan". Illuminati and such.

You seriously do not believe that NATO is unsure whether physical support in Ukraine would not have "provoked" a nuclear reaction by Russia? Let's say NATO did enforce a no-fly zone, i.e. shot Russian planes out of the sky, that would not have been perceived as an "existential threat"? Make no mistake, the Russian leadership has been drawn to the magical thinking of Dugin and such people and views are the worst.

[Dr Mordrid]

LanguageLearner81 @AnthonyMVos
Reports that the Russian aircraft munition plants have ceased some production due to a lack of components. Similar to whats reported at their tank factory.

KJ @KaptanJustice
The Russian Vympel Aircraft Armament Plant, also known as Plant 134 (aircraft missiles and bombs), has ceased production due to a lack of imported components. @AnthonyMVos @aprilsparkles1 @celaurie (not confirmed elsewhere yet) https://twitter.com/segozavr/statu

Reuters @Reuters
Exclusive: The U.S. assesses that Russia's failure rate is as high as 60% for some of the precision-guided missiles it is using to attack Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of the intelligence say https://reut.rs/3DhR9lG

[Dr Mordrid]

Declaring victory and not fully going home until tossed out by their asses and necks?

The New York Times @nytimes
Russia signaled on Friday it may be reducing its war aims, announcing that it would now focus its forces on taking more territory in eastern Ukraine and that the goals of the “first stage of the operation” had been “mainly accomplished"

[UtwigMU]

Sure. That's NATO's plan: Make sure this drags on forever and drains countries' resources. It's all part of the "plan". Illuminati and such.

Please don't straw man. It's not part of Illuminati but rather based on how long past US/NATO wars and color revolutions have gone: Afghanistan 20y, Iraq war ~15 years, Syria ~10 years, etc...

Ukraine timeline:
2005 orange revolution, pro-West Yuschenko comes in power
2010-2014 pro-Russia Yanukovich comes in power
2014 Maidan revolution, Yanukovich deposed, Poroshenko elected, folowed by Zelensky
2014-2021: war between Ukraine and Donbass rebels, 3000+ killed, million displaced

Had Hillary been elected instead of Trump the current war would have probably flared up in 2017.

The goal of USA is conflict in Europe which weakens both Russia and economically EU (USA's biggest economic competitor). In Russia they want to destabilize and remove Putin and in Europe they want to prevent countries from making deals with Russia.

[Dr Mordrid]

Discouraging dependency on Russia, especially for energy, prevents our friends in Europe from being in the position of the frog who gave the scorpion a ride. It's not in their nature to let it end well.

[Umfriend]

Please don't straw man. It's not part of Illuminati but rather based on how long past US/NATO wars and color revolutions have gone: Afghanistan 20y, Iraq war ~15 years, Syria ~10 years, etc... [...]
The goal of USA is conflict in Europe which weakens both Russia and economically EU (USA's biggest economic competitor). In Russia they want to destabilize and remove Putin and in Europe they want to prevent countries from making deals with Russia.

I am sorry but that is getting hard because all you are doing is piling on inuendo, ignoring any of my positions and arguments and offering facts without context. I would agree the US has experienced many, often self-induced, failures in foreign policy. It's the hubris of a global power that does not realize that while destruction is easy and within their means, shaping (parts) of the world is extremely hard. Nevertheless, had Afghanistan and Iraq become well functioning open democratic societies, then the US would have prided itself on a fantastic accomplishment. Ergo: that was a desired outcome.
I don;t understand your problem with color revolutions which were mostly peaceful and arguably favored more democratic societies. Typically, criticism comes from authoritarian regimes like (need I?) Russia, China, Venezuala Viet Nam etc. That alone should give pause to think. Now of these, two are actually relevant and their track record is abysmal and, more importantly, intentionally so. So no, don't come with insinuations that the West/Nato/US/EU are at fault here or have malign intentions supported by a stew of loosely unrelated facts. It is very clear and there is no defense for Russia in this.

Now the original point I tried to make was that in my view it was reasonable for NATO to fear that had they instituted a no-fly zone over Ukraine or presented Russia with an ultimatum, that could have led to very unfavourable consequences. I'm not saying Russia would have nuked right away. Perhaps a Russian cruise missile would be fired at some military base in Poland as a first step. It is not that hard to see though how that then goes out of hand.

If the US wanted conflict in Europe, all they needed to do was leave NATO.