Russia - Ukraine war

[Dr Mordrid]

Former Commanding General US Army Europe and 7th Army. Former Commander 1st Armored Division.

Mark Hertling @MarkHertling

Here's my bold statement for today:

This week, in the Kyiv axis of advance, we're going to see more RU casualties...and soon we will see long columns of RU prisoners of war walking with their hands raised overhead.

Because that's how it's going.

Video at...

https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1507845985975820297

[Dr Mordrid]

Screaming on Russian State TV

It's settling in that Russia would face a decades-long job of pacification, and their army isn't that large.

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1508124246945452038

Julia Davis ?*@JuliaDavisNews

ICYMI, things are going so great for Putin that Russian military experts have slightly adjusted their projected time to victory: from 11 minutes to 40 years.

Julia Davis ?*@JuliaDavisNews

Russian State Television Descends Into Screaming Match Over Putin’s War Failures in Ukraine: Military experts on Russian state TV predict that Russia's war against Ukraine will go on for 40 more years.

https://thedailybeast.com/russian-st...res-in-ukraine

[Dr Mordrid]

7 bus loads of Russian soldiers with acute radiation syndrome extracted from the Chernobyl Red Forest area. Russian forces now withdrawing.

Good Lord...

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1509307334144761861

[Dr Mordrid]

More...

What a clusterfrack

https://news.yahoo.com/russian-troops-suffer-acute-radiation-083839177.html

[Umfriend]

So we, the Netherlands, sent off our Patriot system to Slovenia to cover for their donation of S300 AA systems to Ukraine. Typically Dutch. In Slovakia, our convoy got involved in a chain collision... I wonder if anyone imagines this was a Russian sabotage action on Slovenian soil against Dutch assets?

I'm rather ignorant on naval forces but I assume the sinking of the Moscva is actually quite a big deal PR-wise.

As Mariupol is falling (right?), I think it may be time to deliver some tanks (we actually don;t have [I]any[I]) and divide the continuouos Crima - Donbas territory which, I assume, has logistical advantages for Russia. But how to get the Russians out of Ukraine wholesale? I fear it's going to be a long bloody war that actually causes food shortages in the world (not the first time Russia causes food issues in Ukraine).

[Umfriend]

So we, the Netherlands, sent off our Patriot system to Slovenia to cover for their donation of S300 AA systems to Ukraine. Typically Dutch. In Slovakia, our convoy got involved in a chain collision... I wonder if anyone imagines this was a Russian sabotage action on Slovenian soil against Dutch assets?

I'm rather ignorant on naval forces but I assume the sinking of the Moscva is actually quite a big deal PR-wise.

As Mariupol is falling (right?), I think it may be time to deliver some tanks (we actually dont have any) and divide the continuouos Crima - Donbas territory which, I assume, has logistical advantages for Russia. But how to get the Russians out of Ukraine wholesale? I fear it's going to be a long bloody war that actually causes food shortages in the world (not the first time Russia causes food issues in Ukraine).

[UtwigMU]

So we, the Netherlands, sent off our Patriot system to Slovenia to cover for their donation of S300 AA systems to Ukraine. Typically Dutch. In Slovakia, our convoy got involved in a chain collision... I wonder if anyone imagines this was a Russian sabotage action on Slovenian soil against Dutch assets?

I'm rather ignorant on naval forces but I assume the sinking of the Moscva is actually quite a big deal PR-wise.

As Mariupol is falling (right?), I think it may be time to deliver some tanks (we actually dont have any) and divide the continuouos Crima - Donbas territory which, I assume, has logistical advantages for Russia. But how to get the Russians out of Ukraine wholesale? I fear it's going to be a long bloody war that actually causes food shortages in the world (not the first time Russia causes food issues in Ukraine).

It was Slovakia. We don't have S300, neither did Yugoslavia have it. Also there was no news on Dutch convoy. We did send some stuff to Ukraine as our epp/alde government is very pro Ukrainian and our prime minister used to be defense minister during 1990s.

The last two times Russia was pushed out of Ukraine for couple of years, it was during ww1 and ww2. We don't have this kind of military power in EU now so it's not realistic.

[Umfriend]

Ouch, that was a rather silly mistake I made, yes, Slovakia.

On the other hand, Russia doesn't have the military they had in late WWII and during cold war either. It may take a long time but I don't see Russia being able to maintain a war for a long time. I really wish they would just pull back, even if not from Crimea.

[Dr Mordrid]

Ouch...

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2022-04-19/ukraine-russia-war-losses-pentagon-military-aid-donbas-5737097.html

WASHINGTON — Russia has lost about one-quarter of its troops, weapons and military equipment originally sent to invade Ukraine less than two months ago, a senior U.S. defense official said Tuesday.

“We believe that [Russian President Vladimir Putin’s] roughly at 75% of his combat power that he had originally when he started,” the official told reporters at the Pentagon. “This is across all functions: it's infantry, its artillery, its aviation – both fixed and rotary – it's ballistic missiles, cruise missiles etc."

Putin spent months amassing more than 170,000 troops and military equipment along Ukraine’s borders with Russia and Belarus before launching the war on Feb. 24, U.S. officials have said.
>

[Umfriend]

I'm always a bit skeptical on estimates like these and it may not be that telling without a similar estimate on Ukraines' losses.

The article also says:

"People speak about this as if it's inevitable that Mariupol's going to fall, that it's inevitable [that] Donbas will be taken by the Russians,” the official said. “We don't see it that way."

But how does that work? As far as I understand, there are remaining forces in the Azovsteel factory but it seems to me they are cut off from supply lines. Surely, they must be running out of ammo sometime? I would think ammo runs out pretty fast in theater.

[Dr Mordrid]

As long as they have food ammo and water, the Russkies might best stay out of range.

Retired 3-star General Terry Wolff is joining the US National Security Council to oversee US aid to Ukraine. This indicates a lot more is coming.

$800 million in aid is already on the way. One of the first items is 72 155 mm howitzers. There's no breakdown of the 144,000 rounds being shipped with them, but they will include the M982 Excalibur extended range guided projectile. This shipment will also include UAV's.

I haven't checked the USAID site to see if they are sending more SpaceX Starlink user terminals and other such hardware, but they've been very useful so far because the Russians have been unable to jam them. They've been using them for both comms and tactically. USAID, SpaceX and reportedly two European countries have been shipping thousands of terminals.

Maybe those Russians shouldn't get too settled in..

[Umfriend]

As long as they have food ammo and water, the Russkies might best stay out of range.

Exactly my point: I assume it is impossible to restock the holdouts in the Azovsteel plant so wonder how long they should be expected to last.

[Dr Mordrid]

Exactly my point: I assume it is impossible to restock the holdouts in the Azovsteel plant so wonder how long they should be expected to last.

It depends on the physical layout and if they can use drone helicopters to resupply them. Such vehicles exist.

With more room, and of course later in time because it's in development, DOD is working on rocket resupply systems. One concept would involve a robotic Starship landing with up to 100 tons of cargo. Another involved robotic dropships, sort of like Starship Troopers. No joke.

[Umfriend]

It depends on the physical layout and if they can use drone helicopters to resupply them. Such vehicles exist.

Well, the AzovSteel compound is rather large so there might be room for such devices to land. But I do wonder whether they have such devices though and, even if they did, how realistic is it to expect these to arrive at a completely surrounded location?

[Dr Mordrid]

Well, the AzovSteel compound is rather large so there might be room for such devices to land. But I do wonder whether they have such devices though and, even if they did, how realistic is it to expect these to arrive at a completely surrounded location?

The US started using them in Afghanistan in 2012, and more advanced vehicles are on the way.

https://www.latimes.com/business/la-xpm-2012-jan-10-la-fi-0110-drone-helicopter-20120110-story.html

As I understand it the rocket cargo demo is within the next two years. Initially a collaboration between the US Air Force transportation command and SpaceX, there is an RFI out covering a wide range of payload capabilities.

The Russians have shown susceptibility to Ukrainian night operations. Get them while they're sleeping. On the other hand, the US makes frequent use of night operations via night vision equipment.