Russia - Ukraine war

[Umfriend]

I'm sorry. Are you saying Ukraine has such capabilities today?

[Dr Mordrid]

I'm sorry. Are you saying Ukraine has such capabilities today?

No, but I am saying that such capabilities exist and in the future they will be much improved.

There's also the issue that the Russians have walked themselves into a fixed position, surrounding the factory. It makes them sitting ducks for that new US artillery. It has an accuracy of ~4 m and a range of 65 km. Now add the drones that were part of the shipment.

Russia is fighting with 1970/1980s equipment and using world war II tactics against 21st century equipment and tactics. They've also found it almost impossible to jam the Starlink communications system, which Ukrainians are using both for comms and tactically.

[Umfriend]

I'm reading The Poverty of Historicism by Popper. Very interesting. I just read something that made me think of Russia and the EU.

This may perhaps throw some light on the fact that in democratic countries defending themselves against aggression, sufficient support may be forthcoming for the necessary far-reaching measures (which may even take on the character of holistic planning) without suppression of public criticism, while in countries preparing for an attack or waging an aggressive war, public criticism as a rule must be suppressed, in order that public support may be mobilized by presenting aggression as defence.

[Dr Mordrid]

I'm reading The Poverty of Historicism by Popper. Very interesting. I just read something that made me think of Russia and the EU.

Short version; get your messaging right before the war.

[Umfriend]

So, Finland is going to apply for NATO membership. I would bet Sweden to follow soon. So for now, what has Putin accomplished:
1. De-demilitarisation of Germany
2. Increased military spending by NATO-members
3. Japan consider de-demilitarisation
4. Finland to be a NATO member soon(tm)
5. Sweden likely to join soon(tm) thereafter
6. A huge loss of life, material and morale amongst Russian troops
7. A huge loss of life, assets and a huge gain of morale amongst Ukranians
8. Possibly, so this is still speculative, massive food shortages, especially amongst the poorer countries
9. A necessity for Russia to produce basically anything and everything given the boycotts and embargoes
10. A renewed and invigorated resistance against China, specifically with respect to Taiwan and the South Chinese Sea.

Way to go.

I am sure some other gains can be identified but the list is already impressive.

[MultimediaMan]

1. De-demilitarisation of Germany

Corrected to Re-Militarization of Germany.

3. Japan consider de-demilitarisation

Corrected to Re-Militarization... Japan never really stopped believing for a moment that the PRC would not be a threat (There have been numerous run-ins with PRC fishing trawlers and gunboats). They are merely putting a public show of force regarding the PRC for the world to see.

4. Finland to be a NATO member soon(tm)
5. Sweden likely to join soon(tm) thereafter

Finland and Sweden entered a pact in March/April where both countries agreed to apply for NATO membership.

10. A renewed and invigorated resistance against China, specifically with respect to Taiwan and the South Chinese Sea.

The "One China" Policy so beloved of the US State Department (since the Clinton years) is dying as we speak. The PRC is attempting (mostly successfully) to play a long game with "re-patriating" Taiwan, because any military solution will trigger a nasty RoC response: If PLA troops land on the Taiwan, the RoC will send 20+ F16Cs to Beijing, Guangdong, Shenzen and a few other selected locations to start a (nuclear-powered) rapid urban demolition project on the mainland. Taiwan has at least 20 air-deliverable nuclear weapons, and they have made it clear that if there is an "existential" threat to them, they will use them. This has been the case since the 1980's. China has been looking and attempting to build the political clout and world backing to affect a takeover. I think the current goals are more embargo/blockade-related than outright conflict, but they are certainly making moves.

The best way out of this is for the West to hand Russia a lifeline to get them free of China. China has performed a masterstroke of geopolitical politicking: Alienating Russia beyond redemption, forcing Russia to China. This should be avoided at all costs. China is the real enemy here.

[Umfriend]

Uhm, the One China Policy was by Nixon, no?

I disagree we should hand a lifeline to Russia if that means that we should tolerate incursions in, say, Ukraine. I don't think such facilitation of aggressive closed societies has ever brought what we are looking for.

[MultimediaMan]

Uhm, the One China Policy was by Nixon, no?

Yes, it was, but it was the Clinton Administration was the one who really turned the screws (actually opened the floodgates) in the 1990's.

Reagan wasn't a fan of "One China", but GHW Bush was... GHW Bush started MFN for the PRC late in his presidency; Clinton's final swan song was getting the Senate to ratify a permanent MFN for PRC. This was one of the dirtiest political deals you never read about ever done; Wal-Mart (with a lot of help from Silicon Valley) bought that vote.

Regarding Russia, we should go so far as to incentivize pulling out of Ukraine, maybe even Crimea. But it is plain that what is now, is not tolerable. Russia is realizing only now what a crappy deal they stumbled into.

[Umfriend]

I am sure I am lacking knowledge on this but as far as I can tell, the political analysis at the time was that China would transform to a more open society and trade, by raising a middle class, would benefit this development. Then Hu Jintao became General Secretary and things slowly started to revert and it went to shit with Xi Jinping but I submit that this wasn't a necessary outcome and these developments could not have been predicted (well, they could have but were not more likely than other possible developments).

Anyway, although I agree it would be good if Russia and China did not become closer allies, the price to be paid can not be surrendering (parts of) Ukraine. Moreover, given that both are moving to become more and more closed societies, I am not sure it can be avoided at all.

[MultimediaMan]

I am sure I am lacking knowledge on this but as far as I can tell, the political analysis at the time was that China would transform to a more open society and trade, by raising a middle class, would benefit this development.

Can't have independent thought and free elections, can we now? God forbid, the Little Red Book might be proven to be worth less than the paper it was printed upon. MFN was a joke in 1991, barely 2 years after Tiananmen square... it was turned into a travesty by greed. That line of reasoning was flawed in the 1990's, and nearly all of the money went into manufacturing plants for the West. The PRC is a nation of slaves, and the Party Leadership is more than happy to see that perpetuated as it finances their military ambitions nicely.

Still and all, things aren't all Rosy for the PRC: The PRC has three real weaknesses: Energy Supply (External Oil and Gas Reliance), lack of indigenous building materials (wood, wood pulp products), and relatively poor internal logistics system (Railyard choke points, poor geography for river navigation and rail travel). Right now, they are getting pinched financially (Cash Flow) because of the massive supply chain disruption brought on by COVID-19, and now the bills are coming due to pay for the unprecedented 2004-2015 growth period.

Along the way, they found out that their (substandard quality) for-domestic-use Cement and Steel they used to produce that growth will have long term, lasting effects. They are starting to have deal with direct technical and societal debt regarding basics such as electricity and water. The Three Gorges Dam is already having to be shored up and repaired, and several crucial rail lines have been adversely affected by poor water management practices.

We haven't even talked about the state of Agriculture in the PRC, which looks great on the surface (right up in until 2018), but is in fact headed into a state of decline due to lack of modernization, and more importantly, water supply issues. This will have lasting effects in the PRC and also for the PRC's agriculture customers.

[Dr Mordrid]

Chinese military website.

After its performance in the Ukraine war they are really wigged out over Starlink. Ukrainians are using it not just to bring there civilian comms back online but to do targeting, communication with uavs, the whole shebang and the Russians are having a fit trying to jam it - they can't.

http://eng.chinamil.com.cn/view/2022-05/05/content_10152439.htm

DoD has also noticed

https://spacenews.com/space-force-general-commercial-satellite-internet-in-ukraine-showing-power-of-megaconstellations/

[MultimediaMan]

Chinese military website.

After its performance in the Ukraine war they are really wigged out over Starlink. Ukrainians are using it not just to bring there civilian comms back online but to do targeting, communication with uavs, the whole shebang and the Russians are having a fit trying to jam it - they can't.

Sure they can, at the cost of blinding themselves... which amounts to "un-jammable". Point-to-Point Laser links are essentially unjammable barring the use of diffusion aerosols/smoke. UAVs which connect to Starlink directly and extremely hard to jam, because the jammer is far below the UAV.

The Russians haven't sent many aircraft over the Ukraine after figuring out the hard way that attempting to achieve air superiority over a SAM-infested country is a non-starter without stealth aircraft or massive air-refuelling capabilities to enable dashes over the border for SEAD missions. Russian tactical thinking failed utterly in the area of SEAD. Air warfare is not simply tank warfare in the sky; their Prewar planning seemed to think that's what it was. To borrow a line from Star Trek II, The Wrath of Khan: "He's intelligent, but not experienced; his pattern indicates two-dimensional thinking".

I was struck (as were many Russian Helicopters) by how ignorant the Russians were, sending helicopters right over a lake, essentially providing the SAMs a nearly laboratory-grade Infrared Reference for detecting the hot engines against the cool waters and cooler air above the lakes. Granted, the Russians learned quickly, but not before they were deprived of a regiment or two of attack helicopters.

Likewise, the Ukrainians set up SAM Traps (an early 1980's NATO tactical invention) and lured in Russian fighters going after Ukrainian aircraft which were only presented as bait: again the losses were horrific for Russia.

Russia has had an fairly effective standoff campaign using cruise missiles against fixed targets, but no Forward Air Control to direct precision attacks against tactical targets... and it's showing, big time.

China is wetting themselves because Russia laid bare a big hole in Chinese Tactical thinking regarding a Taiwan invasion and likely Taiwanese countermeasures/defenses.

[Dr Mordrid]

Sure they can, at the cost of blinding themselves... which amounts to "un-jammable". Point-to-Point Laser links are essentially unjammable barring the use of diffusion aerosols/smoke. UAVs which connect to Starlink directly and extremely hard to jam, because the jammer is far below the UAV.
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All Starlink satellites since about New Year's have had laser links, and once Starship starts flying the Gen 2 birds get massive upgrades and they'll carry hosted payloads. It'll carry almost 200 at a time.

During the November 2022 Polaris Dawn Crew Dragon mission they will not only do spacewalks but also test lasercom with Starlink from about 1400 km up.

About Taiwan and nukes, did they hold back some fissile materials when they "ended" their program?

[Dr Mordrid]

A totally disturbed toon

Roscosmos is the Russian space agency.

https://www.novinite.com/articles/215386/Head+of+Roscosmos+Threatened+Bulgaria+with+a+Nuclear+Missile

Head of Roscosmos Threatened Bulgaria with a Nuclear Missile

"This is what Sarmat is good for. It will not ask for consent for the flight from the cowardly Bulgarians, the vicious Romanians and the Montenegrins who betrayed our common history. Like the other various nations like the Swedes."

This was written on Twitter by the former Deputy Prime Minister of Russia and CEO of Roscosmos Dmitry Rogozin on the occasion of Bulgaria's refusal to provide an air corridor for a government plane to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

The RS-28 Sarmat, better known as "Satan II", is a super-heavy intercontinental ballistic missile for carrying nuclear warheads. Its range is 18,000 kilometers.
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[UtwigMU]

This is similar to freedom fries.

Russians see it as they liberated Bulgaria and other Balkan states from Ottoman empire. As a thanks Bulgaria fought against Russia in both world wars and now its blocking air space to Russian diplomats.