Satellite shootdown Thurs.

[Dr Mordrid]

Using the SM3 anti-missile missile launched from an Aegis warship.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/space/02/18/satellite.intercept/index.html

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The U.S. Navy will likely attempt to shoot down a faulty spy satellite Thursday, the day after the space shuttle Atlantis is scheduled to land, two officials told CNN Monday.

A Delta II rocket lifts off in December, carrying a reconnaissance satellite that failed hours later.

The officials -- who spoke on condition of anonymity because much of the planning remains classified -- said the idea is to leave as much time as possible so a second attempt could be made if necessary.

Because the 5,000-pound satellite malfunctioned immediately after launch in December 2006, it has a full tank of fuel. It would likely survive re-entry and disperse potentially deadly fumes over an area the size of two football fields, officials have said.

The Navy plans to fire at the satellite as it enters Earth's atmosphere at an altitude of about 150 miles.

Officials want the missile to hit the edge of the atmosphere to ensure debris re-enters and burns up quickly.

The Missile Defense Agency estimated the cost of a sea-based attempted intercept at $40 million to $60 million.

Without any intervention, Pentagon officials have said they believe the satellite would come down on its own in early March.

The option of striking the satellite with a missile launched from an Aegis cruiser was decided upon by President Bush after consultation with several government and military officials and aerospace experts, said Deputy National Security Adviser James Jeffrey.

NASA Administrator Michael Griffin said there's nothing the military can do to make the outcome worse.
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"If we miss, nothing changes. If we shoot and barely touch it, the satellite is just barely in orbit" and would still burn up somewhat in the atmosphere, Griffin said.

"If we shoot and get a direct hit, that's a clean kill and we're in good shape," he added.

[Marshmallowman]

should be interesting, since people have a lot of warning there should be a few telescopes etc looking to capture the event.

[Dr Mordrid]

Doubling as the first operational deployment of the Aegis missile defense system.

If it works the nay-sayers in Congress etc. will have to rewrite their scripts

[Dr Mordrid]

UPDATE: the following has been sent to USAF units in the area of the shoot-down (Maui, Hawaii area)

A Notice to Airmen has been issued closing a zone near Maui for air traffic on the morning of Feb. 21 from 2:30 to 5:00 UTC - and the to-be-hit satellite USA 193 is crossing that very zone around 3:30 UTC. Furthermore it has been noted that this is during totality of the total lunar eclipse that night which may aid the optical tracking of faint fragments.

Further;

NASA Administrator Michael Griffin said there's nothing the military can do to make the outcome worse. "If we miss, nothing changes. If we shoot and barely touch it, the satellite is just barely in orbit" and would still burn up somewhat in the atmosphere, Griffin said. "If we shoot and get a direct hit, that's a clean kill and we're in good shape," he added.

[Evildead666]

hopefully someone will take a video of it thru their telescope for us all to see

[Brian Ellis]

What are the hopes of the hydrazine tank surviving re-entry, landing in downtown Tehran, and bursting on impact?

[cjolley]

NASA Administrator Michael Griffin said there's nothing the military can do to make the outcome worse. "If we miss, nothing changes. If we shoot and barely touch it, the satellite is just barely in orbit" and would still burn up somewhat in the atmosphere, Griffin said. "If we shoot and get a direct hit, that's a clean kill and we're in good shape," he added.

I sure hope his understanding of the permutations is a lot deeper than this public statement.
This sounds alarming like famous last words.


PS

They couldn't hit an elephant at this dist. . . .
Killed in battle during US Civil War.
~~ General John Sedgwick, Union Commander, d. 1864

[Dr Mordrid]

For those who don't know Civil War history Gen. Sedgwick was killed by a Confederate sniper at a range of 1,000 yards.

Yes, they had guns more than capable of that during the Civil War. The one that killed Sedgwick was a British made Whitworth, a highly accurate .451 caliber muzzle loader with a telescopic sight. Effective range: 1,500 yards. Yup, you read that right. The key was that the Whitworth used a spiraled hexagon bore and matching bullet;



This pic of a replica doesn't show the 'scope, but it's a good representation of the rifle itself.



That said the story actually goes like this;

Confederate snipers were about 1,000 yards away and their precision shooting caused members of Sedgwick's staff and artillerymen to duck for cover. Sedgwick then started strutting around in the open, and was quoted by witnesses as saying;

"What? Men dodging this way for single bullets? What will you do when they open fire along the whole line? I am ashamed of you!! They couldn't hit an elephant at this distance!"

His men continued to flinch and Sedgwick repeated;

"I'm ashamed of you, dodging that way! They couldn't hit an elephant at this distance!"

Seconds later was hit below his left eye and killed.

[cjolley]

A first hand account.

...As the bullets whistled by, some of the men dodged. The general said laughingly, " What! what! men, dodging this way for single bullets! What will you do when they open fire along the whole line? I am ashamed of you. They couldn't hit an elephant at this distance." A few seconds after, a man who had been separated from his regiment passed directly in front of the general, and at the same moment a sharp-shooter's bullet passed with a long shrill whistle very close, and the soldier, who was then just in front of the general, dodged to the ground. The general touched him gently with his foot, and said, " Why, my man, I am ashamed of you, dodging that way," and repeated the remark, " They couldn't hit an elephant at this distance." The man rose and saluted and said good-naturedly, " General, I dodged a shell once, and if I hadn't, it would have taken my head off. I believe in dodging." The general laughed and replied, "All right, my man; go to your place."

For a third time the same shrill whistle, closing with a dull, heavy stroke, interrupted our talk; when, as I was about to resume, the general's face turned slowly to me, the blood spurting from his left cheek under the eye im a steady stream. He fell in my direction ; I was so close to him that my effort to support him failed, and I fell with him.

I still worry when someone at NASA seems to say "What could go wrong?"

[Dr Mordrid]

I imagine there are as many versions as witnesses

That someone is the NASA Administrator, head of the agency. That said he's the same one in charge of the Constellation project, which includes the Ares I rocket that's been having so many problems.

The space community is not impressed with his bull-headed promotion of Ares I for launching the Orion space ship, feeling that man-rating an existing launcher (Atlas V) would be a better use of the funds.

BTW: this is what the SM3's (Standard Missile 3) sensors "see" just before it hits its target;

[mmp121]

Initial reports say that its a hit. Wonder how long before we see some evidence of said shot.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D8UUFCLG1&show_article=1

It happened just after 10:30 p.m. EST.

Two officials said the missile was launched successfully. One official, who is close to the process, said it hit the target. He said details on the results were not immediately known.

[Dr Mordrid]

24+ hours before they get the data.