Realistic societal energy use conversion timeframe?

[Claymonkey]

This question came up due to recent 'talks' that were political in nature but I'd like THIS discussion to be completely free of that and limited to research, trends and speculation based on such.

A question was asked on how much less oil could we be using 4 years from now. Both sides (remember keep politics out of this) avoided the question directly, and said significant drops could be expected in 10 years.

What does everyone think of this?

No one likes the answer if true but to have a societal change of this scale it is going to take a LONG time. Ten years seems realistic to me. ANY changes or research started now will take a long time to make it to market, let alone to the masses.

You want a new car that gets better gas mileage than available now? Great we'll start working on that:

- 2-4 years of research, prototypes and getting it to the market.
- 1-2 years before you see ANY of those in the used car market
- 3-6 years to see significant numbers on the market

If we are going to try to move away from a credit based society people getting new cars will take even LONGER than normal.

What about the batteries in hybrids? Will they be reliable once they hit the used market? Will there be affordable replacements by then? I know the industry has said that the batteries are reliable and will last awhile (seem to recall 10 years), BUT we won't know that as fact for awhile still.

Now as for electricity needs.... if we can get wind, solar or nuclear onto the grid great.. but that still seems like it will take awhile.. and you're plugging it into a hodge podge inefficient system that still needs to be fixed to a large degree. I'm sure headway has been made since the rolling blackouts a few years back but how much really?

The USA's upgrade to a better internet backbone should highlight this well. We are paying a heavy early adopter tax and have to work with a largely copper backbone. Other countries that started later are getting a better shot and building it right the first time. Even here it has gotten kind of backwards. FIOS is a fiber connection that you are more likely able to get if you live outside a major city than inside it due to the costs of upgrading an overly saturated market. It's costly and the returns aren't nearly as good as bringing cheap broadband to areas that didn't have it before.

So thoughts?

[Dr Mordrid]

The 10 year estimate for getting any benefit from offshore US oil is misleading. Drillers etc. have been interviewed and they say 1 year from new wells on existing platforms and maybe 5 years for new sites in already explored areas. The 10 years figure would only apply to totally new areas where no test wells have been drilled, and even this is considered too long by many oil industry people.

As for new energy sources like cellulosic ethanol, which can be made from grasses, wood waste and other non-food sources; there are lots of programs involving modified yeast and bacteria strains but movement is slow. General Motors owns stake in an outfit called Coskata that looks promising (pertinent thread....) and Gulf Oil also has a big cellulosic ethanol program, but the most optimistic estimates are that they're years off.

IMO none of these are going to make one whits of difference for at least 10 years, maybe 15-20 years as I'm sure the anti-GM crowd will throw a hissy fit over the use of those modded microorganisms.

My favorite biofuel would be biodiesel made from jatropha nuts - the parent plants of which can grow in very marginal environments. Jatropha produces large nuts that are 40% oil that is easily processed, the plant lives for ~25 years and 2.5 acres (1 hectare) of jatropha produces 1,900 liters of fuel - many times the output of corn or soybeans. No gen-mod fight and it could be grown in almost any warm climate including the US southwest. Tough damned plant.

Article @ daimler.com....

Wind I find problematic for three reasons:

1. if it were really economically viable it wouldn't need subsidies

2. it displaces ZERO power plants because when there is no wind you need them to take up the slack, and you can't just let those power plants sit - they take a long time to ramp up and therefore can't stop producing emissions just because the windmills are there 25% of the time (their typical 'up ' time)

3. at low wind speeds so much of the windmills power is used to power the windmills systems it's moot to even have it running, and at high wind speeds electromagnetic & mechanical brakes (eating its own output again) have to slow it down or stop it entirely to prevent RUD (rapid unscheduled disassembly) - not to mention those times when there is no wind at all. This is why the 25% +/- up time unless the damned thing is in Chicago in which case it would probably break free of the tower and take off for Philly

Cheap solar may be the one that's ready for prime time first given the recent advances in cheap thin film photocells and polymer or glass/dye based solar concentrator panels at MIT.

Nanosolar has already got one of their machines running at a production rate of 1GW of thin film cells per year, and it's running at small percent of its design capacity. If they can get to full capacity using a factory full of these machines and demonstrate high quality it's nothing short of revolutionary.

MIT's concentrator panels also looks to be a very low cost process. Using dyes similar to those used in laser tech their device absorbs many wavelengths over the area of the panel which then re-emit a single wavelength that they don't absorb. By using a solar cell sensitive to that wavelength the panel as a whole becomes more efficient and uses less solar cell material since it's all at the edges. This approach looks to be much simpler and cheaper than trying to develop solar cells that are sensitive to many wavelengths.

[Claymonkey]

MIT's concentrator panels also looks to be a very low cost process. Using dyes similar to those used in laser tech their device absorbs many wavelengths over the area of the panel which then re-emit a single wavelength that they don't absorb. By using a solar cell sensitive to that wavelength the panel as a whole becomes more efficient and uses less solar cell material since it's all at the edges. This approach looks to be much simpler and cheaper than trying to develop solar cells that are sensitive to many wavelengths.

Is it me or a LOT of advances coming out of MIT these days? I should cross the Charles River and go shake some hands.

[Dr Mordrid]

You're not imagining things at all - MIT has been on a tear. Another that is in the public light is the nanoelectrode tech used in A123 Systems new LiION batteries - in particular the battery tech in competition (with LG Chem) to be used in the GM Volt (and its stablemates) and the Chrysler E-REV (probably the 7 passenger Caravan) also coming in 2010.

A123 Systems is an MIT spinoff

Another innovation they have in the pipeline, and many NewSpace companies are very interested, is a spacesuit - the BioSuit - which doesn't require pressurization - is uses elastic materials to apply pressure directly to the astronauts body.

Link...

[SitFlyer]

Drop the speed limit and strictly enforce it with cameras. That would be a win-win IMO

[Dr Mordrid]

Not really. Around here most of those photographed would be cops, and I don't mean on runs

[Claymonkey]

It's mostly regional anyway. It would actually be interesting to see gasoline use per capita. When I lived out in Oregon it would drive me absolutely insane that on a 3-4 lane highway EVERYONE was doing exactly the speedlimit. Their concept of highway use was wonky. I'm not saying it isn't good to go the speed limit, but in most other parts of the country the average speed is 5-10 miles over the speedlimit (they actually base the speed limit on sharp turns on this.. speed limit+10mph equals safe speed on the curve). My bigger issue with the driving out in Oregon is that the left lane is for passing... if you are staying even with the guy on your right.. you're going too slow. Either speed up or slow down 5mph and get in front or back of them.

[Brian Ellis]

What about the batteries in hybrids? Will they be reliable once they hit the used market? Will there be affordable replacements by then? I know the industry has said that the batteries are reliable and will last awhile (seem to recall 10 years), BUT we won't know that as fact for awhile still.

The first hybrids in production were the Honda Insight which were launched on the market in 1999 after five years development. The batteries were NiMH. They therefore have 9 years of customer experience and 14 years of laboratory experience. Both Honda and Toyota give an 8-year guarantee on their NiMH batteries and they seem, from reported user experience, to outlast the guarantee. Only a few users have reported faulty batteries over several million user-years.

Li-ion batteries are another kettle of fish, where we do not know, as there is no user experience with the production software controlling the charge and discharge. I admit to some scepticism because self-discharge reduces their capacity, whether the battery is used or not and, even with the most highly developed and expensive membranes, self-discharge is a long way from being eliminated, although much improved over "ordinary" Li-ion cells. I don't think Li-ion will ever last as long as NiMH because the best membranes limit the maximum current flow so my best guess would be 5 years under practical user conditions.

[Gurm]

The first hybrids in production were the Honda Insight which were launched on the market in 1999 after five years development. The batteries were NiMH. They therefore have 9 years of customer experience and 14 years of laboratory experience. Both Honda and Toyota give an 8-year guarantee on their NiMH batteries and they seem, from reported user experience, to outlast the guarantee. Only a few users have reported faulty batteries over several million user-years.

Li-ion batteries are another kettle of fish, where we do not know, as there is no user experience with the production software controlling the charge and discharge. I admit to some scepticism because self-discharge reduces their capacity, whether the battery is used or not and, even with the most highly developed and expensive membranes, self-discharge is a long way from being eliminated, although much improved over "ordinary" Li-ion cells. I don't think Li-ion will ever last as long as NiMH because the best membranes limit the maximum current flow so my best guess would be 5 years under practical user conditions.

All of which means that - as Claymonkey was getting at - the used-car market for Hybrids is going to be nonexistent. I'm not talking the "2 year old model" market, here we call that "preowned". I'm talking the USED car market. Nobody will buy a 10-year-old hybrid, because you have to put a $10k battery in it.

And that, pretty much, is the problem. You can't tell me the car is economical to make, it was hoped that their longevity would be good - but it won't.

That's the problem with a lot of new tech. If it isn't economical, it doesn't matter that it reduces our dependence on oil. We have to find ways to make technology not only work, but work reliably and renewably without massive continual capitalization.

[Brian Ellis]

The NiMH battery in a hybrid is nowhere near $10k, by a whole order of magnitude. This could be a problem with electric or fuel-electric cars like the Volt which have a much greater autonomy and larger, expensive, Li-ion batteries, probably with a shorter lifetime.

[Dr Mordrid]

Even the Volt's battery isn't estimated at $10k anymore - since its announcement and early estimates the price of the battery has dropped. By the time production actually starts and ramps up it's very likely to be much less.

Also: the battery has a 150k/10 year warranty and GM may make it transferable, meaning a second owner could use it.

[Claymonkey]

If so great! New/better battery tech has been the bane of most innovations in technology I can think of... and why I asked that question.

Technological advancement is funky. The order of magnitude increases we get in discovery in many areas is damn near impressive.

In others Moore's 'Law' is often found lacking. We never got those 10Ghz processors (though in other ways what we have is better)... heck I'm still waiting on that flying car

[MultimediaMan]

Also: the battery has a 150k/10 year warranty and GM may make it transferable, meaning a second owner could use it.

This is also where you are likely to see fierce competition: Aftermarket/3rd. Party manufacturers will jump on this bandwagon very quickly, especially if the cells (if not the cell configuration) are more or less standardized. Instead of NoS Systems it's going to be "High Performance Catalysts", instead of K&N Airfilters, it's going to be low resistance contacts, and so on.

[Gurm]

I certainly HOPE that this is the case. I haven't owned a car newer than 10 years old in quite a long time. (Only one, ever...)

I tend to BUY cars at 150k/10 years.

My BMW, when I purchased it, was 8 years old and at 100k miles. I put another 100k on it, and sold it because we needed another 4-door. Currently we drive two different Volvos, each purchased at 150k, and each now over 200k. I do all the work myself and have put no more than 3000 into each (INCLUDING initial purchase price!). I expect them to go another 50k, but likely will sell one to make room for a wagon... which will ALSO be a Volvo over 100k miles.

While my company would pay $100/mo. of my lease for a hybrid, it's just not sensible for me to buy a car with a $400/mo. payment when I can get a couple years each out of $3000 cars. (And then someone with even less money will buy it from me!)

Cheap batteries and longevity would really help with hybrids, but we won't know for sure until they actually get old enough that the original batteries are failing - which, with the exception of the Insight, none are yet.

[Brian Ellis]

Cheap batteries and longevity would really help with hybrids, but we won't know for sure until they actually get old enough that the original batteries are failing - which, with the exception of the Insight, none are yet.

Condemned out of your own mouth! The original Prius ones must be out-of-guarantee, by now, as well as the Insight. I don't know about the USA, but the battery/drivetrain guarantee is transferable here.

And Toyota claims that not one has required a battery replacement due to malfunction or "wearing out." The only replacement batteries sold--at the retail price of $3000--have been for cars that were involved in accidents. Toyota further claims that the nickel-metal hydride (NiMH) battery packs used in all Prius models are expected to last the life of the car with very little to no degradation in power capability....According to Toyota, the life of the Prius battery pack is determined more by mileage than by time, and it has been tested to 180,000 miles. Supporting this are first- and second-generation Prius taxis in Canada that have reportedly traveled more than 200,000 miles without suffering any battery problems....The second is that the life span of a lithium-ion battery in an application like the Prius can't yet match that of a NiMH battery.

Link

Despite eBay's booming battery bazaar, Toyota, Honda and Ford all say hybrid battery failures are extremely rare. Out of more than 100,000 Honda hybrids on the road, the automaker says fewer than 200 have had a battery fail after the warranty expired. Honda, like Toyota and Ford, covers the cost of battery replacement for the first 100,000 miles in most states and 150,000 miles in California and a few other states with tough green car laws....Hanson says today's Prius batteries are designed to last "the life of the car," which Toyota defines as 180,000 miles. (Toyota and Panasonic announced Friday that they will build a new $200 million factory to produce more hybrid batteries to meet the automaker's goal of selling 1 million gas-electric cars a year.)...So far, the high cost of battery replacement isn't having much impact on the resale value of hybrids. The Automotive Lease Guide (ALG)—the resale value bible—only recently began assessing hybrids. "We had concerns about battery life," says ALG CEO John Blair. "But our analysts told us that battery life was really a nonissue. They found that the batteries have a 10-year life expectancy, which is quite reasonable."...

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