Climate & chaos theory

[Dr Mordrid]

Link....

UW-Milwaukee Study Could Realign Climate Change Theory

Scientists Claim Earth Is Undergoing Natural Climate Shift

MILWAUKEE -- The bitter cold and record snowfalls from two wicked winters are causing people to ask if the global climate is truly changing.

The climate is known to be variable and, in recent years, more scientific thought and research has been focused on the global temperature and how humanity might be influencing it.

However, a new study by the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee could turn the climate change world upside down.

Scientists at the university used a math application known as synchronized chaos and applied it to climate data taken over the past 100 years.

"Imagine that you have four synchronized swimmers and they are not holding hands and they do their program and everything is fine; now, if they begin to hold hands and hold hands tightly, most likely a slight error will destroy the synchronization. Well, we applied the same analogy to climate," researcher Dr. Anastasios Tsonis said.

Scientists said that the air and ocean systems of the earth are now showing signs of synchronizing with each other.

Eventually, the systems begin to couple and the synchronous state is destroyed, leading to a climate shift.

"In climate, when this happens, the climate state changes. You go from a cooling regime to a warming regime or a warming regime to a cooling regime. This way we were able to explain all the fluctuations in the global temperature trend in the past century," Tsonis said. "The research team has found the warming trend of the past 30 years has stopped and in fact global temperatures have leveled off since 2001."

The most recent climate shift probably occurred at about the year 2000.

Now the question is how has warming slowed and how much influence does human activity have?

"But if we don't understand what is natural, I don't think we can say much about what the humans are doing. So our interest is to understand -- first the natural variability of climate -- and then take it from there. So we were very excited when we realized a lot of changes in the past century from warmer to cooler and then back to warmer were all natural," Tsonis said.

Tsonis said he thinks the current trend of steady or even cooling earth temps may last a couple of decades or until the next climate shift occurs.

[Brian Ellis]

The bitter cold and record snowfalls from two wicked winters are causing people to ask if the global climate is truly changing.

What bitter cold and wicked winter? We have had amongst the two warmest winters ever, in this neck of the woods. This winter is the first when no air or ground frost was recorded, nor did we see any snow down to sea level (the latter is relatively rare, but there is a monastery at Stavrovouni perched on a c. 750 m high mountain in the middle of nowhere which has had snow nearly every winter except this one. At Troodos, last year, none of the ski lifts were working and, this year, only one out of five was working.

Is not the Uni of Wisconsin being rather parochial with their premisse? In any case, weather and climate are not the same and what they are talking about (and I, in the last paragraph) is weather.

"synchronised chaos" is an oxymoron, isn't it? Rather like "military intelligence"! Yes, there is chaos in both weather and climate, maybe a butterfly in Africa causing a Gulf hurricane. And the reason experts use the term 'climate change' instead of 'global warming' (see ibid.) is that they have calculated that there would be extreme weather patterns here and there, causing cooling as well as warming, even at climatic levels. Certainly, they have predicted increased precipitation in the N. American mid-latitudes.

Finally, how come you have suddenly come to believe in modelling?

[Technoid]

How come its always AGW when heating occurs and Climate when cooling occurs?

[Brian Ellis]

Read the link in my earlier post and you will see the differentiation between global warming and climate change and what each means.

What you say isn't true, anyway. I'm constantly bombarded with questions because the media, particularly tabloid newspapers and TV confuse the two phenomena beyond all possibility of laymen understanding, so you are not alone in your misunderstanding.

[Dr Mordrid]

Seems a lot of the pro-warming/change folks are confused too - or more likely are selectively changing their language to suite the situation;

they harp on 'global warming' during heat waves, even ones consistent with historical precedent, and 'climate change' when it's so cold their meetings get snowed out and talk of "warming" would cause a world-wide ROTFLMAO

In other words: their talk doesn't pass the blink test.

[Marshmallowman]

Its global warming because we put extra heat in the system, it is climate change because the extra energy does not necessarily manifest itself as warming in all parts of the globe however it will be evident the global average temperature.

The models suggest it will manifest it self in more extreme/chaotic weather

Here in Australia we have had one of the worst heat waves/hot summer on records throughout most of Australia.

However in Perth (SW Aus) we have incredbly mild year, normally we have the nearly the hottest summers of any Australian capital city. An winter really has had no bite for the last couple of years either.(suits me)

This is matching the predictions of climate changes models made several years ago.

[Technoid]

How come its always AGW when heating occurs and Climate when cooling occurs?

Note to myself - post only when you are sufficiently awake

This is what I thought I wrote:

How come its always AGW when heating occurs and weather when cooling occurs?

Read the link in my earlier post and you will see the differentiation between global warming and climate change and what each means.

What you say isn't true, anyway. I'm constantly bombarded with questions because the media, particularly tabloid newspapers and TV confuse the two phenomena beyond all possibility of laymen understanding, so you are not alone in your misunderstanding.

That article is fine up to "Theory of climate change" wich I think you should part out the AGW hypothesis parts into its own AGW heading.

That you cherry pick your data to fit your preferred conclusions is fine, we all do that