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This report is due out in September 2013 but the second draft has been leaked. I personally don't like leaked drafts. as they can be misleading but I can say that it would seem that the data evaluation will be changed. The probability terms are changing from AR4, but a notion of numeric confidence levels is being introduced in parallel.
It would seem likely that AR5 will state that climate change is "virtually certain" to be mostly caused by human activities, where "virtually certain" indicates a percentile probability of 99 to 100 (subject to modification.) If I remember correctly, AR4 stated it to be "very likely" (>95%).
No doubt, many deniers and contrarians will seize upon the 0-1% statistical uncertainty to state ("I told you so") that man has never caused any change to climate.
Notwithstanding, some of these same deniers are quite willing to play the Sorcerer's Apprentice by modifying the stratospheric climate (see http://geoeng.cypenv.eu/solar.html ) It makes no sense!
It would seem likely that AR5 will state that climate change is "virtually certain" to be mostly caused by human activities, where "virtually certain" indicates a percentile probability of 99 to 100 (subject to modification.) If I remember correctly, AR4 stated it to be "very likely" (>95%).
No doubt, many deniers and contrarians will seize upon the 0-1% statistical uncertainty to state ("I told you so") that man has never caused any change to climate.
Notwithstanding, some of these same deniers are quite willing to play the Sorcerer's Apprentice by modifying the stratospheric climate (see http://geoeng.cypenv.eu/solar.html ) It makes no sense!