What part of NO.....

[KRSESQ]

KvH's somewhat indiscreet opinion aside, I'm afraid he's right. Anyone with even a modest knowledge of the science of Ecology can see strong evidence of serious population stress in the human population. A rise in indiscriminate violence, a rise in infanticide, a rise in deviant behaviours (insert your own definition of "deviant"), a rise in infectious diseases that weren't even a remote risk just one or two decades ago, a rise in malnutrition and starvation. When these phenomena are observed in other animal species populations, they are usually followed by a sharp increase in the number of predators and a subsequent decline in the population in question. The problem is, humans have no natural predators other than ourselves. Thus in the absence of a MAJOR war it will fall on disease organisms to achieve the "culling" needed, unless some other mechanism that is not yet apparent kicks in to have the same effect.

A natural disaster, like a volcano or asteroid, is a bit TOO random to be considered in this case.

Bottom line: move to a rural area (low population density) with good health care. Me, I'm staying right here.

Kevin

[Wombat]

I see no rise in indiscriminate violence, infanticide, or deviant behavior. Where are you getting these ideas from? Infectious diseases come and go, AIDS is the only new-nasty I can think of. Flus happen, and have happened. As far as nutrition and awareness goes, I think it's really just an issue of perception and awareness thanks to new communication media.

[spadnos]

I see no rise in indiscriminate violence, infanticide, or deviant behavior. Where are you getting these ideas from? Infectious diseases come and go, AIDS is the only new-nasty I can think of. Flus happen, and have happened. As far as nutrition and awareness goes, I think it's really just an issue of perception and awareness thanks to new communication media.

Well - I'm not sure I can recall *any* instance of a school-age child gunning down multiple classmates and teachers before around 5 years ago (whenever Columbine was). There have been several fairly high profile cases of mothers being on trial for killing their children (probably due to news shock factor rather than real newsworthiness, but still).

There does seem to be a decline in general politeness and consideration for others as well (ref: TP's thread about people running red lights all the time).

There was a Heinlein book in which he mentioned that a society is on the downward slope when it ceases to take care of itself, and when there is a breakdown in personal politeness. The evidence the character in the book notices is the lack of care of public facilities (notably restrooms), and a general trend toward rudeness.

In any case - I'd have to agree with KRSESQ that there do seem to be more occurrences of crimes where the general reaction is just incredulity that anyone would do such a thing. It may be due to an increase in the crime rate, or an increase in the sensationalism and pervasiveness of media *reporting* those crimes, but it's still noticeable to me.

- Steve

[xortam]

I think there has been an escalation in the level of violence over the years. My theory is that it's in response to global communications and the needs of those who feel that they need to act out at an even more absurd level in order to be heard above the roar of all the other ills in the world.

[KvHagedorn]

Overpopulation definitely has something to do with the general level of violence. I remember a TV show on Discovery channel or somesuch. They did a study on Bangladesh, and noted that people there had a very short fuse.. some trouble at a holiday parade rapidly escalated into a serious riot. Not sure of the specifics, but it was definitely attributed to overcrowded conditions.

[xortam]

Overpopulation definitely has something to do with the general level of violence. ...

Yes, this behaviour has been observed for a very long time amongst various animals and indeed among humans.

[Dr Mordrid]

Well - I'm not sure I can recall *any* instance of a school-age child gunning down multiple classmates and teachers before around 5 years ago (whenever Columbine was).
- Steve

School shootings are nothing new. Check out these pre-Columbine school shootings and please note that not all were in the US. In fact there are probably a lot more outside the US that aren't on the list because of a lack of news coverage;

June 15, 1998: A male teacher and a female guidance counselor were shot in a hallway at a Richmond, Va., high school. Neither was seriously injured.

May 21, 1998: Two students were killed and more than 20 other people wounded when Kip Kinkel, 15, opened fire at Thurston High School's cafeteria in Springfield, Ore. Earlier that day, he killed his parents. He had been expelled the day before for bringing a gun to school.

May 21, 1998: Miles Fox,15, died from a self-inflicted gunshot wound to the head in Onalaska, Wash. Earlier in the day, he boarded a high school bus with a gun in hand, ordered his girlfriend off the bus and took her to his home, where he shot himself.

May 21, 1998: A 15-year-old girl was shot and wounded at a suburban Houston, Tx., high school when a gun in the backpack of a 17-year-old boy discharged.

May 19, 1998: Three days before graduation, 18-year-old honor student Jacob Davis allegedly opened fire in a parking lot at Lincoln County High School in Fayetteville, Tenn., killing a classmate who was dating his ex-girlfriend.

Apr. 28, 1998: Two teen-age boys were shot to death and a third was wounded as they played basketball at a Pomona, Calif., elementary school hours after classes had ended. An unidentified 14-year-old boy was charged.

Apr. 24, 1998: A 48-year-old science teacher was shot to death in front of students at a graduation dance in Edinboro, Pa. Andrew Wurst, a 14-year-old student at James W. Parker Middle School, was charged. The killer was later described as depressed, alienated and a boy who never smiled.

Mar. 24, 1998: Four girls and a teacher were shot to death and 10 others wounded during a false fire alarm at Westside Middle School in Jonesboro, Ark. Two boys, Andrew Golden, 11, and Mitchell Johnson, 13, were accused of setting off the alarm and then opening fire from a nearby woods.

Dec. 1, 1997: Three students were killed and five others wounded as they took part in a prayer circle in a hallway at Heath High School in West Paducah, Ky. Michael Carneal, 14, described as emotionally immature, plead guilty but mentally ill and was sentenced to life.. One of the wounded girls was paralyzed.

Oct. 1, 1997: 16-year-old outcast Luke Woodham of Pearl, Miss., was sentenced to life in prison for killing his mother, then going to Pearl High School and shooting nine students. Two students died, including the suspect's ex-girlfriend.

March 30, 1997: Mohammad Ahmad al-Naziri, 48, armed with an assault rifle, opened fire on hundreds of students at two school in Sanaa, Yemen. Six children and two others died. He was sentenced to death and executed by firing squad one week after the incident.

Feb. 19, 1997: 16-year-old Evan Ramsey opened fire with a shotgun in a common area at a Bethel, Alaska, high school, killing the principal and a student and wounding two others. Ramsey was sentenced to two 99-year prison terms.

Mar. 13, 1996: Thomas Hamilton, 43, dressed in black and wearing earmuffs to protect himself from the noise, entered an elementary school in Dunblane, Scotland, and sprayed 105 bullets into the gym striking 29 people before killing himself. Sixteen five and 6-year-olds and a teacher died.

Feb. 2, 1996: 14-year-old Barry Loukaitis walked into algebra class with a hunting rifle in his trenchcoat and opened fire, killing the teacher and two students. A third student was injured during the shooting at a junior high school in Moses Lake, Wash.

Jan. 18, 1993: Scott Pennington, 17, walked into Deanna McDavid's English class at East Carter High School in Grayson, Ky., and shot her in the head. He then shot janitor Marvin Hicks. Pennington was sentenced to life without parole

May 1, 1992: Eric Houston, 20, killed four people and wounded 10 in a seige at his former high school in Olivehurst, Ca. The attack was said to be in retaliation for a failing grade. Houston was convicted and sentenced to death.

Jan. 17, 1989: Patrick Purdy, 26, armed with an AK-47 assault rifle, opened fire on a playground at a Stockton, Ca., elementary school. Five children died and 29 children and one teacher were wounded before Purdy killed himself.

Sept. 26, 1988: James Wilson, 19, opened fire in a Greenwood, S.C. elementary school. He shot seven students and two teachers. Two 8-year-old girls died.

May 20, 1988: Laurie Dann, 30, shot six students at a Winnetka, Ill., elementary school, killing one second-grader. She then shot a man in a nearby house before committing suicide.

Jan. 21, 1985: James Alan Kearbey, 14, armed with a M1-A semiautomatic rifle and a .357-caliber handgun, killed the principal and wounded two teachers and a student at his Goddard (Kansas) Junior high school. He pleaded no contest and served seven years in a state youth facility.

Jan. 29, 1979: Brenda Spencer, 16, opened fire with a .22-caliber rifle at an elementary school across the street from her San Diego, Ca., home. She killed two people and wounded seven because she "didn't like Mondays". She is in prison.

Note that the worst of the ones in the US were the Thurston shootings by Kip Kinkel the year before Columbine.

As a matter of fact if you look at the FBI crime reports they show that school shootings were actually on a downslope when Columbine happened and have continued to be so.

The only reason Columbine and later incidents are so strong in the public conciousness is the advent of the 24/7 instant news cycle and Michael Moore etc. deciding they could make a buck off 'em.

Dr. Mordrid

[RedRed]

Personally, I dont see that there is really any increase in violence - certainly not on a globally significant scale, anyway.

Cities like the modern Paris Paris were built around anti riot defences.
murders were probably more common during the 1760's than now - on a per capita basis anyway.

diseases like AIDS may not have existed - as slow killers - principally because you died from ilness quicker (flu was mentioned before, but even if an immuno supressant disease akin to AIDS existed - you would die of the secondaryinfection anyway - simmilar to the modern the 'Umbeke Argument' - much critised in the 'developed' world).

the greatest cull during WWII was, obviously, Russia (over half the total victims of WWII)- I didnt notice too much economic advantage meeted out to them.
Per Capita of the major powers the least affected by the 'cull' was the US- yet they ended up the stronger nation, economically.

[Dr Mordrid]

Per Capita of the major powers the least affected by the 'cull' was the US- yet they ended up the stronger nation, economically.

Yup...and mostly our gains were because of lower taxation and higher productivity. Lowering taxation to increase economic activity in particular has proven itself time and again in our history.

Because lower taxes stimulate both economic activity and productivity you actually end up with more taxes going to the govenment that at the higher rates that dull activity and productivity.

In the 60's JFK pushed lower taxes and it was followed by a huge economic expansion, even in the midst of the later VietNam war. Some of the gains were because of military spending, but only a small percentage.

Later on Reagan pushed lower taxes and again the gains were enormous, even if the budget got blown by the Democrats in Congress going on a spending spree.

The same thing happend after the internet bubble burst in 1998/1999 and the 2001 9/11 attacks pulled us into a recession.

Bush's use of the JFK/Reagan model stimulated the US economy to the point where now the Federal deficits are shrinking due economic activity his tax cuts brought on. Even State govenments are seeing their huge deficts of 2001-2003 disappearing and being replaced by surpluses.

In addition unemployment has dropped to about 5.3%, which is historically low, and long term interest rates for things like mortages are at historic lows; about 6% - 7%. Home sales are also at record highs. Even minority employment and home ownership are at increasing high levels, so the rising tide has floated most of the boats.

Good lessons there for Europe.

Dr. Mordrid

[xortam]

Yep ... good lessons in the creative use of statistics. Unemployment figures ... hah!

[KvHagedorn]

Yes.. if someone loses a well-paid manufacturing job to become a minimum wage greeter at Wal-Mart, he still has A JOB.

Perhaps the most common way statistics are manipulated to mask the horrible problem we are facing with greater stratification of incomes and the shrinking middle class is by the use of the term MEAN instead of MEDIAN.

arithmetic mean
Function: noun
: a value that is computed by dividing the sum of a set of terms by the number of terms

me·di·an
Function: noun
2 a : a value in an ordered set of values below and above which there is an equal number of values or which is the arithmetic mean of the two middle values if there is no one middle number

The pitfalls of using a simple arithmetic mean to determine whether there is a healthy number of middle class individuals in a society should be obvious. For example, say you have ten people.. one makes a million dollars per year and the other nine make $2000 per year. This is a defacto feudal society, yet a statistician could honestly quote the mean income as being $101,800 per year. Seems like a rich country there, eh? What is the median income though? $2000.

I have devised a simple test for our re-devolution into a feudal state. The farther apart the median income is from the mean, the closer you are. For example, in a perfectly equal society, if you had ten people and all made $50,000 per year, both the mean and the median incomes are $50,000.

[xortam]

Yes, we should all strive for mediocrity.

When does a person roll off of the unemployment figures? When the EDD benefits cut out?

[GT98]

Yes.. if someone loses a well-paid manufacturing job to become a minimum wage greeter at Wal-Mart, he still has A JOB.

But why should everyone be paid well to do a job that "monkey" can do? You can't expect to go out in the work force today and expect to find a job straight out of HS that pays any better then minium wage. You need to have some sort of trade or futher training, either though College or a techincal school. Just because your father or grandfather worked at a factory, doesnt mean you should inherit that same job as him with the same benifits.

Yes, theres alot of Two income households out there, but how many of them truly need to work two jobs? Its not all about keeping up with Joneses, with having a Big ole SUV and a 5 bedroom house to make payments on.

[KvHagedorn]

And how are you supposed to pay for technical school or college when mom and dad get thrown out of work because the government suddenly relaxed all trade barriers and their jobs get sent to China? Even people who DID go to college now get their jobs outsourced to India because (supposedly) they can speak English there. Anyone tried a tech support line recently?

If you want to talk about monkeys, that's what unfettered laissez-faire capitalism transforms every CEO into. The sleaziest of them source their products from China, so that even those who want to support American jobs can't do so and compete as well. If you want to talk about monkeys being worth nothing, why do people in professional sports make so much? And just what CAN you do, GT98, that can't be done cheaper by someone in India or an illegal immigrant? Are the Chinese and Indians such monkeys as you describe them?

I suppose you all support feudalism, then? Because it's the American way to have a hundred multibillionaires on one hand and hundreds of millions of people who are "undeserving" of a decent living for the simple reason that they don't own the business they work for? If that's the American way, get me outta here.

The constitution was being unreasonable when it said there should be no national religion. There is one, and it is greed. You would apparently sacrifice anything to this false idol, even when you yourselves suffer at its hands.

[xortam]

And how are you supposed to pay for technical school or college when mom and dad get thrown out of work ...

You go out and dig ditches, flip burgers, build satellites, or whatever else it takes to put yourself through school you lazy bum.

You'd rather be PO'ed at the world than be creative and look for opportunities to better yourself. Time to evolve out of those old jobs and seek new opportunities.