Which High Definition DVD Format Do You GUESS Will Win?

[wkulecz]

In the long run, the first to get the players and movies in 1080p at prices about the same as current DVDs and players will win.

I've watched lots of 1080i HD and 480P DVD on a 65" projection set the past few years, and while HD is clearly better, I'd bet that few would be willing to pay much extra for the improvement in quality -- look how long its taken to get people to upgrade from horrible over the air NTSC broadcasts.

Image quality will always be the tie-breaker, but few will pay much of a premium for it. Recall how SVHS was pretty much a non-issue vs. VHS for consumers despite the much better quality of SVHS recordings.

--wally.

[Dr Mordrid]

Only China can save typical consumer right now...

I totally agree.

If they flood the market with an H.264 AVC 650 nm deck & recorder capable of component/HDMI, 2-way IEEE-1394, SD/HD and all SD DVD standards including DVD-RAM/DVD-VR it'll piss off all the right people

It will also put HD player/recorders in the home, forcing the issue of whether the BR/HD DVD backers want to sell their content or just continue ticking off the consumer by extending a losing battle.

The bottom line is that there really isn't a need for a higher capacity disc format for playing movies. Content providers could put SD MPEG-2 on one side & HD H.264 on the other with separate 'special feature' discs using existing DVD discs/hardware and it would save everyone a ton of grief.

The real reason for the new hardware is that they want to add DRM to the point of strangulation and force another upgrade cycle, neither of which is in the consumers interest.

[Jerry Jones]

Well, I've been watching a lot of over-the-air high definition broadcasting.

Point #1: OVER-THE-AIR (ATSC) high definition and standard definition broadcasting is a huge improvement over the older analog (NTSC) broadcasting.

Point #2: The appeal, however, of the high definition OVER-THE-AIR broadcasting has its limitations.

What do I mean by "limitations?"

I've been studying the local broadcasts quite closely.

When the NBC station (7) here in Boise multicasts on its two digital channels, the unfortunate result is that the channel carrying the high definition broadcast suffers in terms of image quality; artifacting is visible and it does hamper the appeal of high definition.

That's really going to limit the appeal of buying a high definition TV for many consumers who don't see the value of being locked into long term, MONTHLY payments for cable/satellite services that -- as the song goes -- feature "500 channels with nothing on."

Even the PBS station here in Boise, which features 5 digital channels, is often forced to downgrade the quality of the high definition broadcasts to accommodate the standard definition digital material being multicast -- simultaneously -- on the other digital channels.

On the other hand, when the CBS station here in Boise, which has only ONE digital channel, does its high definition broadcasts, then the picture quality is outstanding because there's no multicasting going on and the high definition channel can take ALL OF THE AVAILABLE BANDWIDTH.

The result is OUTSTANDING PICTURE QUALITY.

And that would normally be enough to entice many additional people to spend the two or three thousand dollars on a good high definition display... except that the availability of such material -- OVER THE AIR -- is very limited at this point in history.

The advantage of multicasting, on the other hand, is a greater variety of content being provided FREE.

But if this additional content is digital -- and only in standard definition -- then MANY consumers will be satisfied with a lesser upgrade to a relatively large standard definition TV equipped with a built-in ATSC receiver.

They understand that the REAL quality gain -- where OVER-THE-AIR broadcasting is concerned -- is the jump from analog to digital.

The other problem is that the typical 26-inch, 32-inch, and 42-inch flat panel displays -- even with falling prices -- exhibit a tremendous amount of ARTIFACTING because they're skimping on internal image processing technology.

You can really see the difference between a top-of-the-line SONY HDTV and the less-expensive competition.

I agree with Doc.

If the market could be flooded with cheap hardware that would give video enthusiasts the ability to create and show their own HD home movies -- in DivX HD or H.264 or VC1 -- then it is conceivable that both "HD DVD" and "Blu-ray Disc" will BOTH DIE.

Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Elie]

I could care less who wins as long as both recording formats becomes available for cheap, possibly even an all in one recorder for my clients who want me to edit HD.

[Jerry Jones]

I could care less who wins as long as both recording formats becomes available for cheap, possibly even an all in one recorder for my clients who want me to edit HD.

What if you buy Blu-ray Disc and then that format goes bust?

Because the reality is they won't be "cheap" for some time yet.

Is that okay with you, Elie?

I don't understand comments like the one you just made.

(Unless you can afford to toss away money.)

Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Jerry Jones]

If they flood the market with an H.264 AVC deck & recorder capable of component/HDMI, 2-way IEEE-1394, SD/HD and all SD DVD standards including DVD-RAM/DVD-VR it'll piss off all the right people It will also put HD players in the home, forcing the issue of whether the BR/HD DVD backers want to sell their content or just continue ticking off the consumer by extending a losing battle.

We're already getting close to this point with DivX HD.

1. DivX HD FAQ: http://tinyurl.com/7hlc6

2. DivX HD certified players/products: http://tinyurl.com/jx8o8 / http://tinyurl.com/h82kc

3. DivX HD samples: http://tinyurl.com/juhbe

4. Create Your Own DivX, PUBLISH it, and GET PAID: http://tinyurl.com/j9z94

5. Inexpensive portable HD media players: http://tinyurl.com/badhc

Yeah, the more I think about it, the more interested I'm becoming in the DivX HD and other HD formats such as H.264 and VC1.

I'm going to do some experiments in the weeks ahead.

Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Jerry Jones]

This player by I-O DATA looks interesting:

http://www.divx.com/products/hw/detail.php?p=217

Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Jerry Jones]

More on the I-O DATA player from the official Web site:

http://tinyurl.com/pzlfc

Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Jerry Jones]

Terrific article about the "Blu-ray Disc vs. HD DVD" battle.

Published by "EDN" here:

http://tinyurl.com/s8btf

The future does not look so good right now for either format.

With neither Blu-ray nor HD DVD an obvious winner at this point, and with the standoff showing no signs of a near-term resolution, might another high-resolution video format seize the spotlight? In fact, a third contender already exists. Using a more modern video-codec alternative to MPEG-2, such as MPEG-4 AVC, also known as MPEG-4 Part 10 and as H.264, or VC-1, also known as WMV9, you can shoehorn a high-quality, high-resolution, long-playing movie onto a conventional single- or dual-layer red-laser DVD. For example, you can buy WMV9-encoded DVDs, such as Standing in the Shadows of Motown, Step Into Liquid, Terminator 2: Judgment Day, and a series of films from Imax. DRM issues currently restrict their playback to PCs, including living-room-based units, but manufacturers could add appropriate DRM support to the next generation of DVD players.

Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Jerry Jones]

What if one of the PORTABLE MEDIA PLAYER manufacturers were to give us a PORTABLE MEDIA PLAYER with an HDMI PORT?

I suspect THAT would kill both high definition DVD formats pretty quickly.

Why?

Because one could then use either...

1. WMV-HD;

2. H.264/MPEG-4;

3. DivX-HD.

...and simply carry the portable media player from location to location for playback.

If it had...

1. HDMI - then you could connect to a high definition display;

2. S-Video - then you could connect to a standard definition display.

If you wished to leave a copy, then simply download the file via a high speed connection such as USB 2.0 to the other individual's device.

HAS ANYBODY SEEN A PORTABLE MEDIA PLAYER with HDMI output, yet?



The more I think about it, the more I'm beginning to suspect that BOTH high definition DVD formats are DEAD!

Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Jerry Jones]

Voila!

The high definition DVD killer is none other than the Sony HDR-SR1!

Here:

http://tinyurl.com/kotyb

HDMI? CHECK.

USB 2.0 FOR FILE TRANSFER? CHECK.

Plus, to mail a file to somebody you could simply record the file to a dual-layer, STANDARD DEFINITION DVD disc.

Problem solved!



HIGH DEFINITION DVDS ARE DEAD!

Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Dr Mordrid]

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/B000A24QF8?v=glance

Sony DVPFX705 Portable DVD Player

* Disc Explorer Disc Menu System combined with an EZ On Screen User Interface lets you organize and find your discs easily

* Built-in HDMI connectivity can upconvert current progressive-scan DVD disc for playback on HDTV screens

* Dolby Digital and DTS 5.1-channel surround-sound signals can be routed through the players coaxial digital-audio output for direct connection to your home-theater audio/video receiver or sound system

* 3D Virtual Surround play through 2 speaker stereo systems

But no MPEG-4 support.

As noted above: if the Chinese come out with SD/HD MPEG-4 AVC recorder/players using 650nm SL/DL discs BR and HD DVD will be hanging on by their fingernails very quickly.

[Jerry Jones]

Yes, Doc.

...EXCEPT...

That portable player doesn't feature a hard disk, which I'm thinking is the key to killing *both* high definition DVD formats!



Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Jerry Jones]

If SONY or some other manufacturer could simply chop the lens off of the HDR-SR1 AVCHD camcorder, then you could cut the cost of a portable high definition multimedia player to less than $500.

- PORTABILITY;

- HIGH SPEED FILE SHARING;

- CONNECTIVITY.

THUD.

High definition DVDs are dead.

Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Dr Mordrid]

Yes, Doc.

...EXCEPT...

That portable player doesn't feature a hard disk, which I'm thinking is the key to killing *both* high definition DVD formats!



Jerry Jones
http://www.jonesgroup.net

I agree HDD's are the future of cams & portable players, but only as an adjunct on decks. Discs will remain a necessity there until some other paradigm comes along....maybe R/W holographic cards. Those could replace HDD's and discs in cams & portable devices, and they're closer than most people think.