"Blu-ray Disc" vs. "HD DVD": Neither Is Winning

[Jerry Jones]

http://www.news.com/False-starts-in-race-to-future-of-DVDs/2100-1041_3-6213412.html?tag=nefd.lede

NPD uncovered a very telling statistic in its 2007 report on high-definition video: 73 percent of current HDTV owners "are satisfied with DVD and don't feel the need to replace" their current players.

Ultimately, DVDs are good enough for most people. Most consumers probably already own a DVD player. If they don't, the average price is certainly more attractive than those of either HD DVD or Blu-ray players. Though prices of both have come way down in the last nine months, the average price for next-generation DVD players is $390 more than standard DVD players.

"DVD is a victim of its own success. It's a good technology," said Josh Martin, an analyst with Yankee Group Research.

Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

[paulw]

Just wondering how long before studios start making crap picture quality copies of DVDs hoping that people will driven to the hidef formats..

[Mehen]

I think the jump to HD/Blu is taking so long because its not just one component you are upgrading this time. When DVD came out, you just got that player, and you were good to go. Some people would buy a new tv, but thats about it.

Now you have to buy a new tv, upgrade your cable TV to HD, buy a new receiver to work with HDMI, and on top of that - this time you have all these different choices: Do I go HD or Blu? Do I go flatscreen or projection? LCD or Plasma? DLP? etc etc.

at least thats how I see it. An all or nothing kind of thing. Now if they started to discontinue regular DVD, that would really push the market.

[Jerry Jones]

An acquaintance recently gave me a DVD gift, the film "Robinson Crusoe on Mars," which is now available through the Criterion Collection.

Looks fabulous!

Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Dr Mordrid]

Love that flick

[Jerry Jones]

Here's the Criterion Collection Web site page about the film:

http://www.criterion.com/asp/release.asp?id=404

It's a 60s science fiction classic, for sure.

I saw it for the first time when I was a child.

The film features a brief appearance of actor Adam West of the Batman TV series of the 60s.

I got to interview Mr. West when I became a TV reporter.

West also appeared in an episode of "Outer Limits" about a group of Earth astronauts sent to Mars to find out what happened to the crew of a previous, ill-fated mission.

Fun stuff, for sure.

Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Jerry Jones]

Excellent article here:

http://www.hdtvexpert.com/pages_b/ReallyNeed.html

Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Hulk]

I think the jump to HD/Blu is taking so long because its not just one component you are upgrading this time. When DVD came out, you just got that player, and you were good to go. Some people would buy a new tv, but thats about it.

Now you have to buy a new tv, upgrade your cable TV to HD, buy a new receiver to work with HDMI, and on top of that - this time you have all these different choices: Do I go HD or Blu? Do I go flatscreen or projection? LCD or Plasma? DLP? etc etc.

at least thats how I see it. An all or nothing kind of thing. Now if they started to discontinue regular DVD, that would really push the market.

I don't think the HD-DVD/Blu-Ray dilemma is helping matters but I think there would be a 5 year transition to a new format regardless.

Yes it's true that people must have HD televisions (or monitors) to enjoy these formats but with stores like Best Buy not even selling analog TV's that will happen slowely but surely over the next few years.

http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=9317

There's no stopping it. DVD is a solid, robust, fully developed format. While the new HD formats are just at the beginning of their evolution.

I have old "tube" TV's in my house right now but you can bet when they degrade they'll be replaced with HD versions.

As I told Jerry about a year ago I still think 2010 will be the turnover year where we'll see more HD players than SD players.

[Tjalfe]

well, for your computer, there is no need to choose sides yet

http://www.ncix.com/products/index.php?sku=26553&vpn=GGC-H20L&manufacture=LG%20Electronics

[Jerry Jones]

Well, I'm not sure the high definition disc formats will be "natural" evolution.

Let's face it.

How many consumers really care about messing around with burning software and disc-burning drives?

They want video.

They want to organize video.

They want to play video.

They don't want to mess around with menu-creation and disc sorting and labeling.

Hence:

http://www.tvix.co.kr/Eng/products/5100sh.aspx

These file-based HD playback systems, in my view, are going to gain traction.

Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Hulk]

I think that HD content in the near future will be delivered by cable, fiber optic, satellite, and yes, optical disc.

Like I said Jerry let's talk about it in a few years. We've been through this before. There's nothing we can do to change anything anyway. We're just two of the millions (billions) of cogs in the machine.

As soon as the player prices get around $200 the HD-DVD and/or BR market it going to take off and never look back.

It happened when CD players got cheap (bye bye records) and it happened when DVD players got cheap (bye bye VCR rentals).

Eventually optical disc will be replaced by streaming media. But I think people will still like to have their movie collections for some time to come. To rent, to loan and borrow from friends, and just to "have."

[paulw]

Hence:

http://www.tvix.co.kr/Eng/products/5100sh.aspx

These file-based HD playback systems, in my view, are going to gain traction.

Jerry Jones
http://www.jonesgroup.net

An interesting device . I suspect if they're available down my part of the world i'll need a mortgage to buy one..

[Jerry Jones]

Here are media player devices that can stream media, including high definition video/audio, to any TV in the house:

1. APPLE TV:

http://store.apple.com/1-800-MY-APPLE/WebObjects/AppleStore.woa/wa/RSLID?nnmm=browse&mco=7B72363E&node=home/shop_ipod/family/apple_tv

2. ARCHOS TV+:

http://www.archos.com/products/gen_5/archos_tv/index.html?country=global&lang=en

3. TViX HD M-5100SH:

http://www.tvix.co.kr/Eng/products/5100sh.aspx

4. TViX HD M-4000PA/M-4000SA

http://www.tvix.co.kr/Eng/products/HDM4000.aspx

5. TViX HD M-4100SH:

http://www.tvix.co.kr/Eng/products/4100sh.aspx

6. D-Link DSM-520:

http://www.dlink.com/products/?sec=1&pid=438

7. D-Link DSM-510:

http://www.dlink.com/products/?sec=1&pid=542

8. D-Link DSM-750:

http://www.dlink.com/products/?sec=1&pid=547

If these devices keep flooding the market, and if consumers realize how easy they are to use and that they allow for wireless streaming of high definition video from PC to TV and that they eliminate the need for costly high definition burners, players, and menu-creation software... then I think they'll make the optical disc formats obsolete.

This will be particularly true as the bandwidth continues to expand for wireless networking.

Anybody with any sense at all knows that cable TV, satellite TV and even digital over-the-air TV is evolving toward IPTV.

IPTV basically makes it possible to deliver programming... period.

This is where the entire television industry is going and it will have a huge impact on telephone, satellite, cable, and corporations that own local TV stations.

Read about it here:

http://www.hdtvexpert.com/pages_b/IPTV.html

Excellent article.

Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Jerry Jones]

Other home media streaming devices:

http://www.divxtech.com/product.html

...and the list goes on and on.

Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Jerry Jones]

With all of these choices, can anybody really believe that consumers will want to continue fumbling around with optical discs?

Will consumers want to continue fumbling around with optical drives?

Will consumers want to continue to fumble with optical disc storage racks?

Will consumers want to continue to fumble with optical disc cases?

Will consumers want to continue to fumble with optical disc labeling?

When they want to share media, they'll transfer it wirelessly... to wherever.

It will be possible to deliver live TV programming using wireless devices.

Get ready for it.

It's coming so soon you won't believe it.

Optical discs are pretty dead.

Consumers know it, intuitively.

I suspect this may be why neither HD optical format has won by now.



Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net