"Blu-ray Disc" vs. "HD DVD": Neither Is Winning

[Jerry Jones]

Agree 100%.

Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

I'm going to stick by my own predictions and predict the return of the cartridge.
-Instant Acces to all and any scenes.
-easy to add DRM, its a cartridge with chips inside, add a DRM chip.
- Cannot scratch.
- Pretty lightweight, already used in a lot of old consoles. (edit : not meaning they can play them, but tech is a known factor)
- When DRAM gets priced low enough to able to do 50Gb cartridges, and high density chips.

We are seeing Flash devices arriving to PC's in the SSD format.
Imagine renting something like that (read only access) and just plugging into your player.

Thats what I believe. Maybe in a few years, maybe in a decade.

[Evildead666]

ANY download model introduced will HAVE to have a P2P system, to alleviate the need for large, High Bandwidth servers.
This will be cracked, and the content providers will stop their distribution.

The only thing preventing widespread download is content protection.
Films and eps available in the USA are not available in Europe, etc...due to copyright restrictions.

CD's and DVD's were popular with the companies from the very start, due to the physical distribution model, different discs for differen regions etc...
On a download basis, that is hard to implement, especially with proxies etc...

I also can't see a company allowing you to DL the whole film to the HDD. It will only be Streaming, so you can't crack the DRM. If you don't have the whole file at once, you can't do much to it...

[Evildead666]

I'm going to stick by my own predictions and predict the return of the cartridge.
-Instant Acces to all and any scenes.
-easy to add DRM, its a cartridge with chips inside, add a DRM chip.
- Cannot scratch.
- Pretty lightweight, already used in a lot of old consoles. (edit : not meaning they can play them, but tech is a known factor)
- When DRAM gets priced low enough to able to do 50Gb cartridges, and high density chips.

We are seeing Flash devices arriving to PC's in the SSD format.
Imagine renting something like that (read only access) and just plugging into your player.

Thats what I believe. Maybe in a few years, maybe in a decade.

[Hulk]

Tough to admit when I'm getting Netflix movies in the mail and watching them.

My wife was very excited today when she checked the mailbox and "Knocked Up" was in there.

Should I tell her optical discs are dead and put it back in the mail box or should she watch it tomorrow night? She's been looking forward to this movie for a month and has had a hard week at work. She doesn't want to stream a movie to her laptop or desktop, that's work for her. Putting a disc in the player and watching in the family room is fun.

Jerry you are on the ropes in the 15th round and you have been getting knocked around in this thread for a long time. I'll admit it's amazing you're still on your feet but it's more a case of your legs not knowing your brain has given up a long time ago!

Oh yeah here's another body blow.

Most hotels/motels don't have TV's with component input, or even composite. But they DO often have DVD players and even (gasp) VCR's.

Sure I can hook up my laptop to a TV IF the TV has the right connections and then fiddle with black bars, centering the image, deinterlacing... but again that's work.

Popping in a disc and a pressing play is easier and that's WHY EVERYBODY is still doing it.

When you've got no aguement the playbook says go to platitudes.

You're getting hurt bad Jerry! Just go down so you can come back another day before you get seriously hurt! Don't you have a corner that can throw in the towel for you? You've got too much pride.

[Jerry Jones]

HD will become widespread before 2012.

Sure... in developed nations, but let's face it: millions and millions of people live in developing nations where they're still watching videos on video CDs... not even standard definition DVDs.

So your prediction is somewhat "aggressive," in my view.

I say 2012 at the earliest.

I think time will prove me right.



Mark, I'm waiting for the ultra portable Macintosh to be released in January at Macworld:

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/07/11/12/ultra_portable_apple_notebook_to_splash_down_at_macworld_expo.html

It will be sweet.



Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Jerry Jones]

You can take some discs with you on vacation...

You can take a portable media player with you, too.

Ever hear of an iPod by a little outfit called APPLE?

Some models have component output capability.

And then there are other companies and other models with similar capability.

When are you going to admit that optical discs are as dead as DISCo, Mark?



Reviews of Vudu: http://www.vudu.com/product_reviews.html

Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Hulk]

... minimal artefacts, glitches, etc.

You can take some discs with you on vacation...

[Hulk]

You comments make no sense, Mark.

In fact, I predicted...

1. widespread adoption of HD would happen worldwide in 2012.
2. I said high definition optical DVD discs would never gain widespread adoption.

I stand by my assertions.



Jerry Jones
http://www.jonesgroup.net

You will be proved wrong Jerry.

HD will become widespread before 2012. And remember you said "at the earliest." Let's not conveniently forget that.

And HD optical will have it day in the sun. You'll see.

BTW, how that Mac system working out for you? You said you were buying after the new OS came out a few weeks ago.

[Jerry Jones]

Vudu adds high definition downloads:

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6501304.html

Vudu's standard-def content is already optimized for HDTVs, but the high-def content will give customers six times higher resolution than standard-def-encoded films, the company said.

Vudu would join Xbox Live Marketplace as the only other online location for high-definition downloads. Xbox Live has 600 hours of high-def content from major studios and TV networks, a company representative said.

Vudu uses a peer-to-peer service. Movies are downloaded from a number of fellow P2P users that already have the file on their Vudu box. Files can be sent faster than those downloaded from one central server.

http://www.vudu.com/

It's happening very, very quickly.

We'll be seeing an avalanche of downloadable HD content within the next six (6) months.



Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Brian Ellis]

But WHY?????? An optical disc is superior to a download in almost every way possible!

-no computer required
-no broadband required
-higher definition
-higher sound quality
-no DRM! you can share**, replay, etc etc at will!
-proven technology, and easy to use
-readily available at any store that sells videos
-people are resistant to change and very few people are truly tech-savvy, nothing is easier than just popping in a disc and hitting play.
-again, BANDWIDTH BANDWIDTH BANDWIDTH. How will downloads become widely accepted in countries with poor bandwidth (or very $$ highspeed).

**how do you loan a friend a downloaded or streamed movie - in a LEGAL way?-

... minimal artefacts, glitches, etc.

[Brian Ellis]

http://forums.murc.ws/showthread.php?t=63562

[Mehen]

But WHY?????? An optical disc is superior to a download in almost every way possible!

-no computer required
-no broadband required
-higher definition
-higher sound quality
-no DRM! you can share**, replay, etc etc at will!
-proven technology, and easy to use
-readily available at any store that sells videos
-people are resistant to change and very few people are truly tech-savvy, nothing is easier than just popping in a disc and hitting play.
-again, BANDWIDTH BANDWIDTH BANDWIDTH. How will downloads become widely accepted in countries with poor bandwidth (or very $$ highspeed).

**how do you loan a friend a downloaded or streamed movie - in a LEGAL way?-

[Jerry Jones]

2012 at the LATEST imo (for HD/Blu). Expect HUGE gains in marketshare in 08, even bigger in 09, and at least parody or majority of sales in '10.

Won't happen; high definition downloads will eclipse high definition optical disc formats, which are -- of course -- as dead as DISCo.



Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Mehen]

The only reason I do not yet own one or both (HDdvd/Blu) is the simple fact that I DO NOT YET OWN A HD TV. How can you expect any HD content to take off when people do not have a way of viewing it? HD TV prices are plummetting though, and as more people actually buy them, more people will buy an HD player.

Again, the limiting factor in the switch to HDdvd/Blu is NOT the media/storage - its the cost of and upgrade to an HD TV. It has nothing to do with all the stuff JJ has been saying. HD/Blu players are getting cheaper and cheaper ($100 for an HD @ WalMart sale), and more and more movies are becoming available.

1. - Majority or near majority of DVD sales will be HD discs by late '09.
2. - The continued decrease in HD TV prices during '08 to '10 and thus the increase in HD discs being sold will produce one of 2 effects:
a) either HD-DVD or BluRay emerging as a clear winner.
b) dual format players become available from all manufacturers making the format war a non-issue.

[Jerry Jones]

ONE since you said it wouldn't happen. And TWO because you've been arguing against it throughout this entire thread.

You comments make no sense, Mark.

In fact, I predicted...

1. widespread adoption of HD would happen worldwide in 2012.
2. I said high definition optical DVD discs would never gain widespread adoption.

I stand by my assertions.



Jerry Jones

http://www.jonesgroup.net