Anti-missile test sucessful.....

[Dr Mordrid]

4 hits in 5 tries so far for the Raytheon SM3 missile defense system. It impacted the target missile just 4 minutes after it was launched. 4 more tests remain. The SM3 warhead is designed to intercept during all three phases of flight: boost, in space and terminal.

Story:

http://news.myway.com/top/article/id/372563|top|12-11-2003::17:05|reuters.html

SM3 LEAP warhead (PDF):

http://www.raytheon.com/products/sm3_leap/ref_docs/sm3_leap.pdf

Once SM3 goes operational Japan and several other US allies are set to deploy it. Most are also getting the Patriot-3 ground based system.

Dr. Mordrid

[UtwigMU]

This could prevent a lone shot by North Korea or the like, but it doesn't stand a chance against strike from China or Russia.

Also even if massive strike occurs and missiles manage to take out 80% of ICBMs, that's still not satisfactory.

Basically nuclear weapons will remain deterrent force for quite a while, and if USA will implement such systems, Russia and China will proabably implement MIRVs to maintain balance.

As for preventing strike from "rogue states as was Bush's argument for violating anti missile agreement with Russia, the anti missile systems are worthless against terrorist.

That doesn't mean that with further development low tech ICBM threat could be reduced (every development of weapon creates counterdevelopment in competing states - for instance stealt fighter, better radars in Russia,....). It would IMO take great economic and scientific disparity between USA and rest of world to completely prevent strikes on USA.



Do you think repuclican push for anti missile system and some hawks calling for tactical artillery projectiles and small anti bunker nukes could reallistically result in use of nuclear weapons in local theatre wars such as USA pursues currently?

[Brian R.]

I still don't understand why Bush et al think a country would attack the US with a nuclear weapon. There is no escape for anyone who does that...

Unless Bush is planning for us to invade North Korea and is worried about a reprisal attack. Not a smart move, but I guess he is capable of anything stupid since he decided that we will preemptively strike anyone he considers evil.

[Gurm]

Actually we're LESS afraid of some country attacking us and MORE afraid of some lone rogue state lobbing a single missile.

Which is EXACTLY what this system will handle without breaking a sweat.

- Gurm

[MultimediaMan]

Utwig...you watch too many movies: Population Centers have not been targeted since 1991. Sea Launched Theatre Tactical Nuclear Weapons have been offline also since 1991 (Tomahawk Missiles on US and British Ships and submarines).

A Nuclear War would not be a Full Scale Strategic Exchange: even 20 years ago, it would not have started as a full scale exchange. It would have been a series of escalations followed by communiques, followed by a response of some kind. We would shuffle to oblivion, not run headlong into it.

China has 12 nuclear missiles...24 if you count that rust bucket SSBN that our Submariner's call "Hellen Keller"

Since we routinely track that sub (whenever the People's Liberation Army gets another itch to see if they can have yet another catastrophic engineering plant failure at sea), every time it leaves port... I've heard tales that the thing is so noisy as to only need a tin can pressed up against the hull to hear it.

If they ever tried to open the missile bay doors there would be two to four MK48 ADCAPs with her name written on them on their way to send her to the bottom as chaff.

Russia still has ICBMs and SLBMs, but these people we knoiw, and have known for a long time. We also share Military and Orbital Track data to avoid "misunderstandings".

You'll notice Putin has been silent about the ABM testing thing lately: there's a good bet that the U.S. will be sharing the technology with the Russians, British and even the French.

Nobody wants a nuclear exchange, building a shield to prevent an accident or a lunatic from trying to start one is a good idea.

North Korea, Pakistan, India, have limited ICBM capability and soon Iran will have it as well. True ICBM capability within the next 5-10 years is well within the bounds of possibility for all of the aforementioned countries.

As far as using nuclear weapons for day to day operations? Never.

However, the parameters for Nuclear Bunker Busters as currently laid out would not qualify them as a WMD: they are basically nuclear shaped charges of about 0.5kT.

The specs call for a Single Stage Physics Package encased within a hardened penetrator, that would detonate at distances exceeding 20 meters below the surface. Single Stage devices can be made extremely "clean", and a deep surface penetrator would not cause fallout or a significant radiation release above ground.

The target area (underground) would be "habitable" after 72-120 hours, depending on the geology of the area. Whatever got hit by this sort of a bunker buster would be well beyond Steak Tartare, however.

[Dr Mordrid]

Like MM said; the Russians are not in the mood and the Chinese are unwilling to lose their one submarine platform.

Our main emphasis is keeping a rogue nation or terrorist organization from attacking us or our allies, and to that end many European nations, the Russians, Japan and others are very likely to get this defensive system.

As for the bunker busters; they're definitely in development and work as MM discribed, but the politics of using a nuke are a bit more complex than the physics.

There is another bunker busting technology that would avoid the nuclear PR issues and still do a good job: a hypersonic projectile with a tungsten tipped warhead taken to space by the booster of your choice with GPS targeting.

Dr. Mordrid

[Brian R.]

Originally posted by Gurm
Actually we're LESS afraid of some country attacking us and MORE afraid of some lone rogue state lobbing a single missile.

Which is EXACTLY what this system will handle without breaking a sweat.

- Gurm

Sure Gurm, I know what the party line is. Any lone rogue state would know they will be radioactive dust and will not do this. No country is that suicidal, unless as I stated before they do it as a last resort because we have invaded or attacked them.

We cannot protect against a terrorist group because they have no fixed location and can potentially fire a missle from any direction. Waste of money for that purpose. We cannot cover that much potential airspace.

[Dr Mordrid]

The SM3 is to be based on Aegis cruisers initially, meaning it can be moved to a potential target area if intelligence detects a threat. A similar system is to be land based in Alaska to protect against NK going off half cocked.

The Patriot 3 is likewise land based but intended as a theater defensive system. It was responsible for shooting down numerous missles during Gulf War II.

Once they evaluate it in deployment my guess is that the SM3 will be more widely deployed.

Dr. Mordrid

[cjolley]

Originally posted by Dr Mordrid
A Nuclear War would not be a Full Scale Strategic Exchange: even 20 years ago, it would not have started as a full scale exchange. It would have been a series of escalations followed by communiques, followed by a response of some kind. We would shuffle to oblivion, not run headlong into it.

That may have been our plan but the one who shoots the firstest with the mostest "wins" in nuclear war.
The Russians and the Chinese know this.
Assuming we wouldn't shoot first, you are wrong about this.
I don't even believe it for our side.

Originally posted by Dr Mordrid
The SM3 is to be based on Aegis cruisers initially, meaning it can be moved to a potential target area if intelligence detects a threat. A similar system is to be land based in Alaska to protect against NK going off half cocked.

The Patriot 3 is likewise land based but intended as a theater defensive system. It was responsible for shooting down numerous missles during Gulf War II.

Once they evaluate it in deployment my guess is that the SM3 will be more widely deployed.

Dr. Mordrid

We have lots of way of shooting down an Airliner and that didn't do us much good did it?
These systems only work when the attack is expected.
Not exactly what the terrorists are planning.

I'm not saying that we shouldn't investigate this tech. But, we shouldn't build ourselves a spurious Maginot Line either.
That path leads to doom.

chuck

[The PIT]

Small nuke or germ warefare from within thats the way it will happen.

[Chrono_Wanderer]

I thought the Chinese have ~200 Surface-to-Surface nuclear missles.

Anyways, I don't see a good future in surface to surface tech. I am more convinced that a submarine platform is more efficient. (which is what the Patriot system cannot take cover AFAIK)

whoever uses Nukes cannot escape from the rest of the world, that's for sure. Only problem is the North Korean gov'n has nothing to loose LOL...

[Dr Mordrid]

Wrong. Patriot can counter sub launched missiles as it operates from mid to terminal trajectory, which is the same regardless of launch type.

Yup...the NK's seem to be a bit whacked which is all the more reason for having a defensive shield on that flank.

Dr. Mordrid

[RedRed]

Surly the most effective strike from a low-tech nuke is to fire it off at 3-4 MILES high?

you get your pulse

you get irradiated

you dont get a huge amount of dust (bad form a WMD point of view)

you dont have to worry about it impacting (vbad for a nuke) - easier to manufacture?

Patriots are not for that kind of threat, surely?

They are theatre defense systems.

question:
How many patriot batteries are DEPLOYED and ACTIVE right NOW round NY? You cant just plug in and fire one of those things... I heard that it was something like 3 hours deploy time for a patriot battery (in a combat zone)....

Question II how many aegis crusers is the US willing to picket in NY Harbour? - they arentt cheap, you know....


Chrono - you are right. I think MM was referring to 24 missiles on the submarine - surely he couldnt have missed the other 99% if Chinas arsenal.....


I am with CJ here.... You are building a modern Maginot line.... Fat lot it did the French - destroyed their army.


RedRed

[Dr Mordrid]

You really don't know this tech, do you?

Patriot 3's and the SM-3 are good for shooting down mid-course missiles; meaning 150 miles up plus handle incoming from just about half the Pacific.

They'll probably keep one Aegis near Japan (still well in range of NK and most of Asia) and the Alaskan ground base is specifically for NK incoming.

The other Aegis cruisers will be mobile with one likely ranging between Hawaii and the west coast and the other on the east coast.

Patriot 3's are already in New England, including around Washington DC, which puts them in a good position on that side. The reason they're deployed is that they are also a long range anti-aircraft system.

President Bush has already made it policy that if another jet is hijacked and heads for a city both ground based fighters and Patriot 3 batteries will intercept fire on them. The Congress has said that they agree with this strategy and the polls show the US public likewise is in favor of it by a huge majority.

Also; airbursts are usually done at 1500-3000 feet to maximize blast effects and EMP bursts are done at 30-50 miles, both well within range of this tech.

Now you have to consider launch platforms for an airburst. Subs are the best and there are some, mostly of German manufacture, that can launch IRBM's but you have to take into account that we have a fleet of attack subs in both oceans that can detect and "manage" them with great ease.

Even the Russian nuclear subs couldn't sneak around both them and our SOSUS network (an underwater passive sonar network covering both coasts).

Dr. Mordrid

[Jake]

In the words of Monty Python: Allways look on the bright side of life.

You sound like a bunch paranoid members of some ultra right-wing survivalist faction. And if you are, I couldn't care less. Fans of Fallout, anyone? In a nuclear holocaust there are NO winners, so who cares if these so called "defense systems" work or not. Sure, us poor Eurotrash who live under the "protective umbrella", by the leave and benevolence of the allmighty US are impressed by this wonder of technical provess. But I'm sure your enemies aren't really worried. Dirty bomb, anyone?

Above statement should be taken "with a sense of humor" if that is possible.

C'mon guyz, go make love to someone, get drunk and have some fun in life. These matters are beyond your control anyway, so why worry?

Cheers,

Jake