Iranian terror plot intercepted

[KRSESQ]

If they feel sufficiently pressured by other Arab nations then they might strike at Israel in an ill-concieved effort to rally the various Arab peoples to their cause.

[cjolley]

If they feel sufficiently pressured by other Arab nations then they might strike at Israel in an ill-concieved effort to rally the various Arab peoples to their cause.

Do lakes of glowing glass have a cause?

That effort would take "ill-concieved" right into the range "raving lunatic" mentioned earlier.

[Dr Mordrid]

>
....why else would Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and other Suni-Arab countries be worried about Iran getting nukes? Surely not because they could be used against Israel?

Iran has a Shi'a majority and in the rest of the region (save for Iraq) they are generally a minority, and there is a not so trivial rivalry between them and the predominant Sunni sect going back to Mohammad's death.

Iran has also made it abundantly clear that they want to re-establish the regional hegemony it enjoyed during the Persian Empire, which it's neighbors would not look kindly upon. Not at all.

This has it's neighbors nervous as regards Iranian nukes because it would give them a means of intimidating them into establishing that hegemony they so covet. Fact is, if Iran gets nukes then you can bet the Saudi's and other powers in the region will too, setting up yet another nuclear flashpoint no one needs.

[Umfriend]

As in conquer Egypt?? Where have they made such aspirations abundantly clear?

So Doc, we would then agree that as others might fear an Iranian nuke, it's not neccessarily Israel that would get hit first?

[Dr Mordrid]

I personally think Iran's strategic nuclear forces would be for intimidating its neighbors and Europe, but as to actually using it - they'd target the US or Israel by smuggling it in.

Such an attack preserves a measure of plausible deniability, especially if they attempt to salt the isotopes to blur the distinguishing proportions used to ID where it came from.

My bet is that to attack the US they'd smuggle it to the South American Hezbollah cells using one of their own diesel-electric submarines, then bring it in through our near-porous Southern borders. Possibly using one of the fully-submersible Narco-submarines the cartels use to get drugs in from Columbia and other points south.

[degrub]

just steam it up the Potomac and detonate.

[dZeus]

An Iranian naturalized US citizen with strong ties to Iran's Revolutionary Guard has been arrested by the FBI after a long investigation. He is now cooperating with prosecutors etc. One other conspirator has been arrested and one is still at large.

US says the Iranian govt. was involved. Also reports that the Mexican Zeta drug cartel was involved. No surprise as Hizbollah has set up shop in south & central America. Also reports that attacks in Brazil we discussed.

The plot included bombing both the Saudi and Isreali embassies and assassinating at least the Saudi ambassador.

Pressers in 5 then links as they come....but this borders on an act of war.

EDIT:

ABC News....

I've now been hearing many noises that the Haqqani network is run from Pakistan. Any updates on this?

[Dr Mordrid]

Haghani Circle != Haqqani Network - though they are variations on the same root name, like Johansson != Johnson.

Haqqani Network is a drug-terror Taliban & ISI associated outfit headquartered in the N. Waziristan region of Pakistan, and it's is in big trouble - a few news items last night said US and Afghan troops are massing on the border for a possible set of ops (drones, missiles, Special Ops etc.) on the Haqqani Network. Apparently enough is enough..

Longest story I could find....

[RedRed]

This is specious - not even a crazy countries leader would drop a nuke on another - except in retaliation.

It is a defensive weapon by virtue of the fact that using it is assures your destruction as well as your oppenent.

You know that Ahmadinejad Iranian Pres) is not the power to press the button there. Its the republican guard. And they are not interested in invading anyone.

We are the one that launched offensive actions on Iran, with stuxnet.

Had that happened in the US, or Israel, it would be an act of war.

RedRed

[RedRed]

Dr M - your smuggleing trip hypothesis involves too many different groups to be feasible. Any breach anywhere and its doomed.

Why not box it as 'medical equipment' in a TIR container. Ship it round the world a few times to 'loose' it.
Deliver it to sanfran or New York. When its near (5KM) , blow it up. Do it before it even docks.
That could be done by GPS, if you were fancy. No agents need be associated in the US, and the most of the evidence is lost at sea.

you have the space in such a container - enough for power, comms etc. The container could also be rigged to be destroyed if tampered with.

no material left to prove from where it came from. Your agents were in Singapore or some other site, thousands of miles away, simply swapping containeres a few times. They need not even know that they are transporting or assembling a nuke - or in which direction or to who its going...

Hell, if it fails to go off, it can be shipped indirectly back!

Regards

[Dr Mordrid]

It's harder to do a container attack than you think. The Advance Manifest Rules now require carriers to declare a container’s contents 24 hours before loading for shipment and 72 hours before offloading. Customs and Border Protection screens 100% of all cargo before it arrives in the U.S., and this includes gamma and particle detectors. The US Coast Guard is also very skittish about undeclared cargo or unknown vessels approaching a harbor from the open seas. Inspection also happens at over 50 international ports. Because of this a successful attack has higher odds bypassing the cargo routes.

[RedRed]

The shipment inspections - possibly true. I dont know that detail. though this could be loaded anywhere from Iran to South africa - and anywhere in-between - I would be surprised if all containers were checked as you say - what about Canada, or austrailia for example?

EDIT - I just read the notice. It does not gurantee that everything is scanned with particle detectors - indeed it would be horribly expensive to do that.
it says
"
The purpose of the rule is to enable CBP to analyse container content information before a container is loaded and thereby in advance decide on its loading/no loading status.
"

Not the term CONTENT INFORMATION. It is up to the CBP to decide if the INFORMATION is about suspect goods. If it is paper, it is probably not scanned.

Additionally, A container bound for mexico or canada, probably would not get the same detail inspection - agents of Iran would probably be able to tell precisely. The bomb would not be offloaded in the states (and therefore checked).

Container ships typically carry goods for several destinations - ships are not necessarially completely offloaded at a particular port. The ship is loaded in the reverse order to which it is delivered. One of my offices is close to Belfast City port, and I have watched it happen with smaller container ships.

Admittedly, a steel box, under 30 above it might hamper a GPS signal! There are methods though...

With that size of box, a state could probably hide most (if not all) of the radiation leakage, except gamma.

Alternatively, if they have long range subs - do it like this:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...red-faced.html

and just detonate it as a mine off the coast. It worked for the japanese of parl harbour.

[RedRed]

the idea that all containers are scanned sat badly in my graw.

It did not seem feasible.

Turns out less than 5% are scanned - only those deemed high threat from a quick googleing...


There are over 7,000,000 containers imported into the US each year.

http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs...an%20Paper.pdf

[Dr Mordrid]

I said screened, not scanned. Preferred pre-approved shippers using proper container seals don't get the detailed scrutiny other containers would get.

[RedRed]

which brings it back to the point... Iranian agents in some third country (possibly some what sympathetic - ?Indonesia, for example?) could possibly orchestrate a switch - fewer people, possibly more reliable, involved than known rebels in south america and drug cartels through mexico..

Its just a thought. Most likely would be a sub and a mine, I would think - if it was to be done at all, which is madness.