WTF :2019-nCoV NovaCoronaVirus Thread

[Dr Mordrid]

The US got off to a good start because of Operation Warp Speed. The govt shredded a bunch of red tape, directed massive emergency funding to the pharma companies, then brought in the Army to help with logistics and security.

Then they made a major bureaucratic change; instead of producing any successful vaccine candidates after approval they started production of all candidates during their Phase 3 trials. On approval they immediately started distribution.

Johnson & Johnson suspended in the US because of 6 patients in 6.8 million presenting with a cerebral venous sinus thrombosis, the same issue as AstraZeneca. This ~1 in 1 million prevalence compared to ~5 in 1 million for the general population seems minor, but they need to check it out.

Moderna 6 months after injection #2

90% effective at preventing illness
95% effective at preventing severe illness

A new Moderna formulation is cooking with updates for new strains, but it's been pretty effective against those. Abundance of caution.

In MI we're jabbing arms with Moderna and Pfizer as fast as they can ship. We started with seniors - the most vulnerable, medical personnel, and first responders. Now most of our cases are younger folks, and many "new" deaths are a result of record reviews.

[Umfriend]

I am not sure about this but I think the EU has two main issues:
1. The EU, like the US, pre-ordered vaccines (so that is not where Warp Speed is unique) but our logistics are sub-optimal.
2. The EU, although it ordered BioNTech/Moderna, had anticipated wide use of Astra and Janssen. Perhaps just a bit unlucky.

But I think currently the real issue is that out of some precautionary principle, we refuse to use Astra and Janssen, even if the odds of mishaps are small and the societal cost of delaying are worse.

[dZeus]

I am not sure about this but I think the EU has two main issues:
1. The EU, like the US, pre-ordered vaccines (so that is not where Warp Speed is unique) but our logistics are sub-optimal.
2. The EU, although it ordered BioNTech/Moderna, had anticipated wide use of Astra and Janssen. Perhaps just a bit unlucky.

But I think currently the real issue is that out of some precautionary principle, we refuse to use Astra and Janssen, even if the odds of mishaps are small and the societal cost of delaying are worse.

What I find baffling is that the risk of getting a blood clotting disorder from the Johnson&Johnson and AstraZeneca vaccines does not seem to be larger than the risk of getting complications from getting infected with covid, not even taking into account the society-wide protective effect of reaching herd immunity thanks to vaccinating earlier (rather than later with mRNA-based vaccines). This is why I think Britain is taking the right approach... the benefits outweigh the risks and they clearly communicate this (rather than giving mixed messaging that undermines the vaccination campaign, which is happening all over the EU and to some degree in the US).

If the principle of autonomy over getting vaccinated with the J&J or AZ vaccine is so important, you can give people the choice to take this decision for themselves. But stopping vaccination altogether seems an incredulous choice imo...

[Umfriend]

What dZ said.

[Dr Mordrid]

I also agree.

The apparent risk of CVST "from the vaccine" is not only lower than the CoVid-19 risk but it appears to be lower than the background rate of CVST.

C'mon bureaucrats, get a friggin' grip already...

[Umfriend]

Although, as I understand it, the number of cases where they experienced CVST + low platelets is higher than expected in a control group. Regardless, the numbers so far indicate we should use both vaccines.

With us, one of the problems appears to be that we now have a plan with respect to which groups go when and that does not work if vaccination is optional (of course, it is optional now as well but if you decline you go the back-end of the list to try again). But I fail to see why you couldn't have a group-sequenced plan for BioNTech/Moderna (the latter of which we get very little sofar) and do the others to whomever wants it on a lottery basis. Sure, you want to do certain groups first but now we're not doing them at all...

[Dr Mordrid]

Michigan now has enough Moderna & Pfizer/BioNTech that adults can be vaccinated on request; hospitals, clinics, pharmacy stores, pharmacy outreachs to senior apartments or programs, city or county run vaccination sites, etc.

MI population: 9.9 million

% received at least 1 dose,

65+: 71.6%
Total 16+: 43%

Our problem is unvaccinated people under 40 who think they're immortal, especially 20-somethings (22.7%).

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/covid-vaccine-appears-be-safe-during-pregnancy-large-cdc-report-n1264881

Covid vaccine appears to be safe during pregnancy, large CDC report shows

One of the largest reports on*Covid-19 vaccination in pregnancy bolsters evidence that it is safe although the authors say more comprehensive research is needed.

The preliminary results are based on reports from over 35,000 U.S. women who received either the Moderna or*Pfizer shots while pregnant. Their rates of miscarriage, premature births and other complications were comparable to those observed in published reports on pregnant women before the pandemic.
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[UtwigMU]

The story of coworker who had breakdown last year continues. He is working 4h, 4h sick leave paid by state. I've found out one of his two early teens daughter has cancer and has spent time in hospital. His wife has a chronic illness and also had covid. And to make matters worse recently they discovered a tumor on his kidney, don't know whether it's malign yet. Since they live in small apartment he and wife hide illnesses from daughters and it's hard to keep communication down.

Now I understand sentence spoken a year ago: Take care of my wife and daughters for me.

We collected cash (in midsize company even if everyone chips in a little it's something) that coworker will secretly give to his wife. He is too proud to take money. Management is also helping him with bonuses.

He is a really nice guy full of heart. Shit usually happens to good people.

[Umfriend]

@Doc: Jealous
@Utwig: Rough... Nice that his colleagues try to help

[Dr Mordrid]

Friday an NBC reporter said the White House is "fed up" with J&J's production problems.

Before this were reports their Emergent supplier had been closed for filthy conditions. Millions of doses also tossed due to contamination.

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccine-fda-inspection-found-problems-at-factory-making-jj-vaccine-6799011.html/amp

[Dr Mordrid]

Moderna update;

targeting 3 billion CoVid-19 doses

Vaccines in/entering trials,

HIV x2
Influenza
Cytomegalovirus
Respiratory syncytial virus

[Dr Mordrid]

Michigan is now offering at-home vaccination for shut-ins.

Soon the home healthcare providers will get allocations for their patients.

7.22 million doses given.
3.25 million fully vaccinated

As before, most of our vaccinations are Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech.

[Dr Mordrid]

Michigan: no masks outside for youth sports, small gatherings like wedding & graduation parties, etc.

Moderna is saying 3 month storage in standard refrigerators, and 7 months at -4°F/-20°C. This will be a boon for shipping & vaccinating remote areas.

[https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/29/mode...4%20Fahrenheit.

[Dr Mordrid]

Michigan now has 51% which have received at least 1 vaccination dose (vast majority here are Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech).

Even a single dose of either mRNA is delivering immunity roughly equal to J&J and other single-dose adenovirus-based vaccines; 60-70%.

mRNA vaccines are ~94% for both doses.

Unlike BioNTech, which partnered with the US's Pfizer, CureVac has no US partner. This has led to them not having unrestricted access to US-made nucleotides for producing their mRNA vaccine.

This access restriction was brought on by Pres. Biden implementing the Defense Production Act in March.

https://www.lawfareblog.com/understanding-bidens-invocation-defense-production-act

[Dr Mordrid]

Updated Moderna...

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/25/covid-vaccine-moderna-says-shot-is-100percent-effective-in-teens-plans-to-seek-fda-ok-in-june.html

Moderna says its Covid vaccine is 100% effective in teens, plans to seek FDA OK in early June

KEY POINTS

• Moderna said Tuesday its Covid-19 vaccine was 100% effective in a study of adolescents ages 12 to 17.

• The company said it plans to ask the FDA to expand the emergency use of its Covid vaccine for teens early next month.

• It is the second vaccine behind Pfizer’s to demonstrate high efficacy in younger age groups.
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