WTF :2019-nCoV NovaCoronaVirus Thread

[Dr Mordrid]

FDA approval for 12-15 year olds happened in May, and we're still lagging.

[UtwigMU]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/study-covid-recovery-gave-israelis-longer-lasting-delta-defense-than-vaccines/

Study: COVID recovery gave Israelis longer-lasting Delta defense than vaccines

People who had two vaccine shots had a six-fold higher chance of getting infected with Delta than patients who hadn’t been vaccinated but previously contracted the coronavirus, according to the research.

[Dr Mordrid]

75.6% of US adults with at least one vaccination, and kids vaccines coming out in Q4.

CDC tracker from Sept 10 seems to show a slight decline in average cases...

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases

CDC CoVid-19 trend Sept 10 2021.jpg

[Dr Mordrid]

https://time.com/6097391/covid-19-boosters-not-necessary/

COVID-19 Vaccine Boosters Are Not Necessary Yet, Say Top Health Officials

In a viewpoint published in the Lancet, leading health officials from around the world say booster doses of the COVID-19 vaccine aren’t necessary yet.

“Current evidence does not … appear to show a need for boosting in the general population, in which [vaccine] efficacy against severe disease remains high,” the authors write.

The health authorities say some people, including those with weakened immune systems, may need booster doses to heighten their protection against COVID-19, but that data supporting the need to give the general population additional doses aren’t convincing at this point.
>

[Umfriend]

Interesting. They also say

For example, much-cited research from Israel shows dropping levels of immunity and higher rates of breakthrough infections in recent months. However, that research shows breakthrough infections were higher among people vaccinated in January and April than those vaccinated in February and March, which doesn’t seem to follow any obvious scientific rationale.

Knowledge on this virus remains sketchy I guess.

[UtwigMU]

Right now we have 45% double vaccinated, 50+% vaccinated at least once and the numbers (infected per day, hospitals, intensive care) are the same as they were in October. Officially recovered are at 13%, likely more.

1/4 of hospitalized are vaccinated so it's around 60-70% less likely to need hospital for vaccinated. But despite half of population having vaccine or recovered protection the cases curve is same with one month headstart compared to last year.

Now they've made it illegal to do almost anything without test, vax or recovered. Even public transit and entering gas stations and shopping malls. You can only visit groceries only stores.

[UtwigMU]

The daughter of coworker from the start of this thread passed away from cancer. It was traditional open casket funeral. Really sad scene, was shocked. Also shocked at the way some other coworkers conducted themselves on funeral with small talk like they are on ****ing lunch. If I die I don't want these f*ckers anywhere near my funeral.

[Umfriend]

But despite half of population having vaccine or recovered protection the cases curve is same with one month headstart compared to last year.

This. Delta is simply way more contagious than whatever variant we had back then (wasn't that still the original one, even before the UK virus came along?).

[dZeus]

In the Netherlands, about 75% [of all 12yo and older] have been fully vaccinated but the 12-18yo subsection at 34% is still rising (they were last in line and many are still waiting for the 2nd shot). Unfortunately, positive tests and hospitalizations have been stable for over a month now (instead of declining). I fear we're going to have a terrible winter.

I'm not too worried about this winter, unless another variant emerges on short order that escapes the antibodies generated by the most common vaccines (Pfizer, Astra-Zeneca).
Israel's recent confirmed cases data looks pretty dramatic, but the number of deaths remains pretty muted so far.

I hope risk appetite increases a bit in the western world, as the health care systems seem to no longer be at risk of saturation with covid patients. We'll need to live to learn with Covid being an endemic infectious disease.
Hopefully we'll have better treatment options in future, to deal with any new waves of variants that escape existing immunity.

[UtwigMU]

Based on data from UK and Israel delta seems more virulent and less deadly, requiring less hospitalizations.

I too think disease will become endemic but to what extent governments will continue to mismanage and exploit it for povergrabs remains to be seen.

The news coming from about draconian lockdowns and Police violence in Australia - Australia has always been a chill place and Australians are the easygoing people I like meeting most on travels - is downright chilling.

[dZeus]

Based on data from UK and Israel delta seems more virulent and less deadly, requiring less hospitalizations.

I too think disease will become endemic but to what extent governments will continue to mismanage and exploit it for povergrabs remains to be seen.

The news coming from about draconian lockdowns and Police violence in Australia - Australia has always been a chill place and Australians are the easygoing people I like meeting most on travels - is downright chilling.

Hmmm I read hospital admission for unvaccinated people with Delta is twice as likely as with alpha, based on Scottish data.
Wouldn't a more obvious reason for the effects of delta being more muted in Israel and the UK be the result of a higher proportion of the population having antibodies now vs. with previous infection waves?
If anything, you'll need to compare the effects in a country with very small share of population being vaccinated and/or having had covid prior to the delta wave.

[UtwigMU]

Israeli data shows that people having recovered have higher and longer lasting immunity than vaccinated.

Sweden vs Israel with similar vaccination rate shows that Sweden has a lot less cases.

https://www.fastrope.com/israel-vs-sweden-covid-19-results-the-graphs-dont-lie/

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/why-does-no-one-ever-talk-about-sweden-anymore

Similar vaccination rates, different results (although they could be in different phases of the curve). In Israel in summer they have a lot of visiting expats and pilgrims.

I think we'll get to the point of herd immunity by the end of this wave. Also new medicines for treatment are coming.

Israel is going in lockdown again despite high vaccination rate.

[dZeus]

Israeli data shows that people having recovered have higher and longer lasting immunity than vaccinated.

Sweden vs Israel with similar vaccination rate shows that Sweden has a lot less cases.

https://www.fastrope.com/israel-vs-sweden-covid-19-results-the-graphs-dont-lie/

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/why-does-no-one-ever-talk-about-sweden-anymore

Similar vaccination rates, different results (although they could be in different phases of the curve). In Israel in summer they have a lot of visiting expats and pilgrims.

I think we'll get to the point of herd immunity by the end of this wave. Also new medicines for treatment are coming.

Israel is going in lockdown again despite high vaccination rate.

Of course Sweden has lower numbers of cases, they're completely different in terms of population density and culture of social distancing. I don't really get your point, vaccination and immunity from recovery are not an 'either or'. Knowingly at risk population doesn't really want to take chances with the expected complications, and why not get vaccinated if you might be at risk but don't know it?
As covid is endemic, you have to get your immune system trained somehow. I rather first train it with a vaccine that has much lower chances of complications.

Risk appetite is indeed something that can be open for discussion, but only really an option for countries with low population density or high vaccination rates.

[Dr Mordrid]

>
Risk appetite is indeed something that can be open for discussion, but only really an option for countries with low population density or high vaccination rates.

A tolerance for risk in a small nation like Sweden is one thing, it having a similar population to Michigan at 10+ million, but in a nation of 328 million (US) gaining herd immunity partly by infection risks generating new and vaccine resistant strains.

On the Moderna front,

• after 120 days the Gen 1 Moderna vaccine is more effective at preventing hospitalization than Pfizer/BioNTech or J&J vaccines. That said, both mRNA vaccines are significantly ahead of the conventional J&J vaccine.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2021/09/18/cdc-moderna-vaccine-tops-pfizer-long-term-against-hospitalization/

• their Gen 2 vaccine prototype will attempt to generate neutralizing immunity, blocking the part of the spike protein which bonds to the target cell. It'll also store in a standard refrigerator.

Both Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech are close to a vaccine for 5-11 year olds, who have been driving US numbers higher as they returned to school.

[UtwigMU]

Slovenia: government introduces mandatory vax/testing/recovered for everything including gas stations and doctor visits (state only health system).
Test costs 10-12€, valid for 2 days. It's a burden for low income familes - eg a cashier told me it costs her 30 EUR to take kids to dentist and cashier here earns around nett 1000 EUR monthly.
Since J&J Janssen is only one shot although not the most effective it gives you green pass the quickest - with Pfizer it's only 2 weeks after 2nd shot. Demand for Janssen surges.
Yesterday 20-y old woman died of stroke and brain hemorrhage couple of days after being vaccinated with Janssen. Since start only one 18-21y old person died of covid according to official data (which I have no reason to doubt).

So vaccinating 15-24y olds with J&J resulted in same mortality as Covid. 30k officially got infected (likely 3-times more as not all mild cases are caught by testing). One of them died. You are twice as likely to die from lightning strike in your lifetime as from Covid in 15-24y group. Yet government insists on vaccinating everyone.

They want to make vaccination mandatory for state workers now and talking about making it mandatory for all workers with decree (not law passed by legislators) despite no pandemic or extraordinary measures declared. Constitutional court will decide tomorrow.