WTF :2019-nCoV NovaCoronaVirus Thread

[Dr Mordrid]

A problem in the US is about 25% flat-out refuse to wear a mask (both political partys are guilty), in part because of Anti-Mask laws passed to counter bandits, the KKK, etc. Old habits die hard. More a problem with older men, and the "young immortals*" for another reason.

A second problem is up to 75% flat out refuse to participate in a contact tracing program run by the Feds, States, or tech companies. Dems, Reps or Indies. Americans fundamentally do not trust governments.

A third problem is a lockdown has a short half-life - after a few months people get "cabin fever." This is made worse by overbearing governors who lock down way too much then enforcement becomes impossible (Gov. Whitmer of MI is a prime example).

* young risk takers. Primarily teens, but it can extend into their mid-20's. It's in part cultural and part developmental; the inhibitory regions of their frontal lobes aren't fully myelinated - not enough insulation on their wiring.

[Dr Mordrid]

US deaths within a spiky but declining range since ~April 10. Graph ends June 26.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-deaths?country=~USA

[Umfriend]

A problem in the US is about 25% flat-out refuse to wear a mask (both political partys are guilty)

So there will always be people who refuse to wear a mask, we got some of those nitwits in the Netherlands as well, and we are rather trustful of authority when it comes to science and common sense. I read WaPo, USA Today and Breitbart. How are both parties quilty? Members of one have been wearing masks for quite some time now, members of the other still don't or just started and not consistently. The distrust of government is squarely biased with one party (or "independents" to the right of that party) and, frankly, current leadership does not help given the mxied signals they send out.

[Dr Mordrid]

So there will always be people who refuse to wear a mask, we got some of those nitwits in the Netherlands as well, and we are rather trustful of authority when it comes to science and common sense.

Being contrarian is an art form here.

I read WaPo, USA Today and Breitbart. How are both parties quilty? Members of one have been wearing masks for quite some time now, members of the other still don't or just started and not consistently.

NY Times, WaPo and Brietbart are poor sources these days, too politicised and biased. Good for lining bird cages though.

A May USA Today poll showed 89% of Dems, 88% of women, and 81% of men, Independents and Republicans have worn masks, but the devil is in the details. It drops to 78% for those 18-29, but jumps to 90% for 65+. Better than others I'd seen.

In MI it's about 25% overall, and I haven't seen much of a political difference. Even the rank and file Dems are sick of what Whitmer's been doing, so for some its a form of rebellion.

At the recent Jobbie Nooner boat party at Gull Island in Lake St Clair (MI) there were thousands of boats, tens of thousands of people 18-60, and mask use was very spotty. Not many women wearing swimsuits either.

Law enforcement had already said they were going to be hands off - vastly outnumbered.

The distrust of government is squarely biased with one party (or "independents" to the right of that party) and, frankly, current leadership does not help given the mxied signals they send out.

Americans of both partys and Indies have a fundamental distrust of government. Pretty much baked in. Pew Research put the trust level at about 20%. The rest don't trust it to do the right thing, of if it does try to it'll screw it up.

[MultimediaMan]

In most States with CCW and CCW Reciprocity wearing a mask is illegal while carrying, just an FYI.

[UtwigMU]

In most States with CCW and CCW Reciprocity wearing a mask is illegal while carrying, just an FYI.

Do you guys get to shoot? Finally managed to go to outdoor match.

[Umfriend]

In most States with CCW and CCW Reciprocity wearing a mask is illegal while carrying, just an FYI.

Really? Where? I would've thought at least some temporary measure would have been taken to avoid that but then I found https://www.factcheck.org/2020/06/we...-carry-permit/

[Dr Mordrid]

We have a family club membership; indoor & outdoor target, skeet & trap, and tactical ranges. NRA certified instructors.

No effect on concealed, or unconcealed ("open"), carry in Michigan either.

7 million adults over 21, over 1 million with a concealed carry permit, and more carrying unconcealed which requires no permit.

[Dr Mordrid]

The peer-reviewed Henry Ford Hospital System HCQ study results are in

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/07/02/michigan-henry-ford-health-study-finds-hydroxychloroquine-lowers-covid-19-death-rate/5365090002/

Hydroxychloroquine lowers COVID-19 death rate, Henry Ford Health study finds

Henry Ford Health System officials report a study done by the health system shows the controversial anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine helps lower the death rate of COVID-19 patients.

Heads of the Michigan health system said Thursday the study found the drug “significantly” decreased the death rate of patients.

The study analyzed 2,541 patients hospitalized among the system’s six hospitals between March 10 and May 2 and found 13% of those treated with hydroxychloroquine died while 26% of those who did not receive the drug died.
>
“As doctors and scientists, we look to the data for insight,” said Steven Kalkanis, CEO of the Henry Ford Medical Group. “And the data here is clear that there was a benefit to using the drug as a treatment for sick, hospitalized patients.”

The study, published in the International Society of Infectious Disease, found patients did not suffer heart-related side effects from the drug.

Patients with a median age of 64 were among those analyzed, with 51% men and 56% African American. Roughly 82% of the patients began receiving hydroxychloroquine within 24 hours and 91% within 48 hours, a factor Dr. Marcus Zervos identified as a potential key to the medication’s success.
>
Other studies, Zervos noted, included different populations or were not peer-reviewed.

“Our dosing also differed from other studies not showing a benefit of the drug,” he said.
>

[Umfriend]

A 50% decline in deaths would be great as a first step. Brazil, Russia and the US especially would benefit a lot. Here's hoping this one pans out (or something better comes along quickly).

[Dr Mordrid]

For those not familiar with the Henry Ford Health System; they operate 6 large hospitals, 40 satellite medical centers (clinics, outpatient surgery, some with an ER), 7 specialized care centers, and an HMO health insurance system.

Henry Ford's main campus is a research & training hospital with well over 900 beds, and the Henry Ford Medical Group has over 1,200 physicians in more than 40 specialties.

[Dr Mordrid]

So there's been a lot of work on mRNA vaccines, these introducing a strand which the cells internal machinery uses as instructions to mass produce a part of the virus for the immune system to respond to and build immunity. The Moderna mRNA-1273 vaccine going into Phase 3 trials (n=30,000) this month is an example.

One company in Germany, CureVac, is hoping to bypass the usual production methods and use a mobile mRNA microprinter, a microfactory, which could speed things up considerably. Last year Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) agreed to fund up to $34 million for CureVac to develop a prototype. These microprinter mRNA strands could be used to produce vaccines or targeted immunity treatments for many diseases other than CoVid-19, so a really big deal.

Who's making them?

Tesla, as a "side project" at their Tesla Grohmann Automation facility.

[Umfriend]

So how are we feeling today? Personally, I am really glad I live in Europe, the Netherlands specifically. With everything that has gone wrong and mistakes that have been made, we're doing pretty darn reasonable sofar.

[UtwigMU]

So how are we feeling today? Personally, I am really glad I live in Europe, the Netherlands specifically. With everything that has gone wrong and mistakes that have been made, we're doing pretty darn reasonable sofar.

We're doing OK in Slovenia, around 250 active cases, mainly imported and some local spread.

Masks mandatory, limited gatherings. Around 100k out of 900k employees are on government paid 80% salary corona vacation since April, so things seem fine, shops operating, food festivals with 10 EUR burgers and 5 EUR beer are full.

The problem is once music ends, those people come back and there is not enough jobs and money to go around. Some companies I work with started to feel the pinch and most are of mentality investments and expenses can wait.

I increased my savings and taking IT exam on Monday.

[Dr Mordrid]

The recent spikes in Arizona, Texas and Florida are showing early signs of slowing down - their R_t's dropping to <1.10 (FL = 1.03, TX = 1.09, AZ = 0.99) after large spikes. There was also a tiff in Florida over unreported negative tests, LOTS of them.

New York was under control, below 1.0, but has now risen to 1.06. California is stuck at ~1.05.

It'll take a bit for these R_t reductions to show up in reduced hospitalizations.



Michigan spiked after several beach and boat parties with 50,000-100,000 maskless young people doing the stupid, and the BLM protesters doing likewise. Our R_t rose to 1.30+ but has now dropped to 1.10.

Nationally we have a huge spike in positive tests, but deaths have been in a spiky decline since April 10. Much of the spikiness is due to irregular reporting & revisions by the states & locals, and events like the beach & boat parties and protests.

Linear and Log